Comments by "wvu05" (@wvu05) on "Is It Time to Talk About 2020 Electability vs Trump?" video.

@SteveGellerMusic 1952 was the last time a candidate didn't win on the first ballot (Eisenhower won on the third) for President, and 1956 was the last time a Vice Presidential nominee wasn't decided on the first ballot (Kefauver won on the second ballot). Kennedy didn't win until the last state in 1960, but it's always been decided on the first ballot since. Superdelegates were a thing in the 1984 election for the first time. Mondale needed 40 superdelegates in that election. Only three first-time candidates won enough pledged delegates to not need any superdelegates to get over the top: Clinton in 1992, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004. It took about 58% of the pledged delegates to win without any superdelegates, and Obama got 52% and Hillary got 55%.
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@SteveGellerMusic In the first round, you only need a majority of pledged delegates. I gave the other examples to point that even when people needed superdelegates, there has not been a deadlock since the modern era initiated by the McGovern Commission. It takes 15% in a Congressional District to qualify for delegates, so I think the fact that there are so many establishment candidates jumping in will help someone like Bernie, because there are so many splitting the establishment vote (and since they are taking Super PAC money, they have less incentive to get out) that they might just cancel each other out by staying under 15%.
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@SteveGellerMusic They might not make it past Super Tuesday, but with California moving up so early in the process, that could be enough to make it too late for the establishment to rally around one candidate, and if Bernie gets several early victories, that would give him a lot of momentum. That's why Hillary put so much effort into Iowa last time: she knew she didn't have a prayer in NH, so she knew that she had to win one of the first two states to avoid collapse. If Bernie won the double, he would have probably also won Nevada, which would have given him a YOUge boost going forward.
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