Comments by "whyamimrpink78" (@whyamimrpink78) on "Wages TANK After Trump's Wealthy Tax Cut" video.

Intelligent people will see this and understand you cannot make a conclusion off of 2 quarters of data and using only one method of inflation. Inflation has many flaws behind it and most use only the CPI which is over 100 years old and rather archaic. Inflation does not factor in many situations such as products getting better or new products costing more initially and then dropping significantly in price. Thus, simply saying "inflation" is not a strong argument. Also, there are other methods in measuring inflation such as the PCE and GDP deflator that many people, outside of economists, hardly use. They should be used to see the complete picture. IN all what we have here is a classic example of lying with statistics. You have someone cherry picking data and analysis and creating a strong conclusion. That is pushing propaganda and any intelligent people will see that easily.
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Unintended Consequences, I would love to see a source that says 50% of those who work full time make $30,000 or less a year. Also, I would love to see their cost of living situation, their marital situation, the benefits they receive, etc.
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Spencer Chudyk, it is propaganda by Kyle. People who know better will see the flaws in this analysis and not take is seriously.
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GDP growth up, unemployment low, interest rates going up, initial claims down, labor participation up. Several indicators of the economy doing well. Cherry picking one stat with analysis that moves the goal posts is not a strong argument.
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cptmiller132 1. How? 2. Unemployment went down under Trump, and that is happening even though, for the first time in years, labor participation is going up 3. Interest rates going up means that there is an increase in investment. It means investors are spending money and thus the Fed raises interest rates to alleviate inflation. Interest rates going up is a good sign for the economy. 4. Initial claims is the jobless claims. If you are going to discuss economics learn the terms 5. Uh, labor participation going up means those who are able to work are working now. There is a lot to factor in wage growth. You have benefits, bonuses, number of hours, etc. What happened in 2007 was the Fed keeping interest rates low and thus the housing market exploded. But according to you interest rates going up is a bad thing. Interest rates were kept low in the 60s and we ended up with hyperinflation.
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cptmiller132 1. What? There is more to the GDP than that. Investments are up which is why interest rates went up 2. Yes, but under Obama labor participation rate was going down as well. Obama's unemployment rate was going down because people stopped looking for work 3. Investment leads to growth. 4. Initial claims is not just jobless claims but also welfare claims. Again, learn these terms. 5. Labor participation was trending downward for years even under Obama. Since 2016 it has been stagnate with some increase. Production is up due to technology. Depending on what method of inflation you use you either get stagnate wages or increases in wages. For example, the Minneapolis Fed showed that if you use PCE method of inflation wages have increased around 4% since the 70s. Prof. Don Bourdeaux showed that with GDP defllator wages increased by 10%. The problem with inflation is that there are several variables that are not accounted for. For example, it does not account for improved quality. A car today is more expensive than cars years ago, but cars today last longer, get better mileage, and are safer, all that saves money. Look at the fact that in the late 80s you had a cell phone, a walkman, a pocket calculator, and a camera. You had to buy those things individually. Now you have all of that in your smart phone. That is from increases in productivity which created better goods and services at a lower prices. That is the same as a wage increase.
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Also, you can't look at the min. wage. It is the minimum. Read up on "Skilled Biased Technological Change".
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cptmiller132 1. Ok, and? GDP growth is up. That means investments will be up. So you think economic growth is a bad thing? 2. Under Trump labor participation has stagnate and moved up slightly. Yes, under Obama we had a recession, and he hindered recovery. So thanks for admitting that under Obama things got worse. 3. Again, interest rates are being raised to prevent this so call "bubble". 4. You did not know what initial claims were. Again, learn what these terms are if you are going to discuss them. 5. You just said labor participation went down under Trump, now you are saying it is stagnate? Make up your mind. You are complaining about 4% wage increase? What will make you happy. Also, you are pointing at the price of eggs and bread, so what? You do know there are other goods and services in the economy? Technology has made things cheaper for people. Cars today last longer, get better gas mileage and are safer. Computers today are much faster where you can shop online saving money. A lot of appliances use less energy. You looked at food when in the US we produce too much food. We throw a lot of food away and we have an obesity problem, especially with the poor. The min. wage is the minimum. Not every job in the market increases in productivity or value. Think about how many goods and services disappear over time. How many people buy VHS tapes? Not many. The same is with jobs. How many Blockbuster employees are there? Essentially zero. But according to you not only should there be Blockbuster employees but they should be making more than the min. wage.
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cptmiller132 1. Have proof for this? I would like to see where this is the case. 2. Took a dip prior to 2016 and then went up in 2016 and more or less been stagnate 3. Interest rates slow down investment to prevent a bubble 4. Initial claims is a generic term. 5. Again, dropped in 2015 and went up in 2016. I am looking at the graph right now, it is on my other screen. In 2014 it was around 63% and dropped down to 62.2% near the end of 2015. You are pointing to the min. wage which is flawed. The min. wage is the minimum. Just because overall productivity went up does not mean that the least skilled workers have become more productive. Also, just because you had inflation does not mean everything inflates. As I pointed out with the VHS, the price of the VHS dropped to where it is no longer bought. Its value is zero. Also, if you were to look at unit labor cost you will see that workers in the market that typically pay the min. wage, such as the restaurant business, have seen their hourly compensation outpace productivity. Even at that the percent of workers earning at or below the min. wage has been dropping for years. You can't just look at the min. wage and make a conclusion about the overall economy. it is more complex than that.
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trier, do you know what inflation is and the shortcomings related to it?
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Very deceptive. Since Trump was elected inflation has been creeping up due to increase investment. That is why interest rates were raised. Matching an overall trend of wages dropping since 2006 where inflation dropped from 5% in 2008 to negative and peaked to around 3% in 2011 under Obama and dropped again, it will skew these numbers. Under Obama wages were dropping while inflation was low according to this report. Under Trump inflation has nearly doubled. Again, Kyle shows a complete lack of understanding of economics.
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michardav, inflation is rising up pretty fast which is why for the first time in years the FED raised interest rates and plan on doing it again later this year. Also, pointing to inflation is very flawed. To start, most use the CPI which is around 100 years old. Is it valid to determine modern day prices with something that old? There are also many ways to calculate inflation which the general public is hardly aware of but it should be used as in stats you should account for as many variables as possible. Reality is this, most indicators has the economy improving. Anyone can play with the numbers anyway they want and come up with any conclusion they want, that does not make it true. I do not take this story seriously as I understand the complexity involved in economics. That is why I say Kyle lacks understanding of economics.
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michardav, if you look at FRED median weekly real earnings of full time workers when Trump was elected there was a spike in it. It dropped back down briefly but went back up. There is that as well. There is a lot of data out there to play with. I take analysis like this to be shallow.
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michardav, the article did, so I counter with the same data they did. However, in the end the point is this. Anyone can play with the data and come up with any conclusion they want. I take this analysis to be shallow and typically ignore them. Pointing to this and saying wages are fallen is a conclusion you cannot make as one can do their own analysis and show that wages have increased. An example is how Robert Reich used CPI and said that since the 70s wages have been stagnate. Minneapolis Fed used with the PCE or GDP deflator and showed that wages have outpaced inflation during that same time frame. There are many ways to look at the data.
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michardav, there are multiple ways to measure inflation. What level of inflation did they use? They don't say. Again, anyone can play with the stats and make any conclusion they want. This analysis is shallow and thus not valuable
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michardav, the article says that even two quarters is not enough to make a conclusion. There are several indications of the economy doing better with increases in interest rates, increase in labor participation, decreases in initial claims and so on. As for wages, I am not going to take time to find a shallow study looking at wages over two quarters, that is not enough time. I will say this. Robert Reich showed that if you use CPI method of inflation wages have declined since the 70s. However, the Minneapolis Fed used the PCE method of inflation and showed wages rose. Prof. Don Boudreaux used GDP deflator which also showed wages increased. You are looking at two quarters of data using one method of inflation and coming up with a hard conclusion. There is a reason why this article exists in Vox and no one is taking it seriously.
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michardav, you did not give a criticism of GDP deflator. Also, CPI is many flaws. It is why the Boskin Commission was create. Even at that other flaws are there that are not considered. For example, you have quality bias. A new car today is more expensive in price compared to a car in the 50s. But cars today last longer, get better mileage, and are safer, all that saves money. Another is new product bias. That is when a new product comes out it is priced high. But over time it drops in price significantly. And example are flat screen TVs. They were expensive when they came out but are much cheaper now. Fact is this, you are looking at two quarters of data with only one standard of inflation. That is not enough to make a conclusion. That is why not one is talking about this especially considering the many other stats that show that the economy is improving.
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Keeping interest rates low creates bubbles. That is how the housing bubble was created. Interest rates were kept low in the 60s and 70s and led to hyperinflation. Bernie Sanders is an economic illiterate.
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