Comments by "nuqwestr" (@nuqwestr) on "“A matter of life and death” - millions flee Florida hurricane | BBC News" video.

Tampa, Florida was hit with a hurricane this size in 1921. If this one is due to "climate change", what was that one over 100 years ago due to?
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@Ramesh98575 "The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has felt like a rollercoaster that no one agreed to get on — with Hurricane Beryl's historically early formation, a peak-season lull that left scientists scratching their heads, and Hurricane Helene's devastating blow far inland in the Southeast U.S." - NOAA “It’s been just basically take the hurricane rulebook and throw it out the window," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. Yet, despite the season's most baffling surprises, the total number of storms to date isn't far off from normal. And other factors that scientists use to measure a season's intensity are near average too. That puts 2024 just below the Atlantic's historical average number of named storms and right at normal for hurricanes and major hurricanes.
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@tommorrsion8567 "2024 just below the Atlantic's historical average number of named storms and right at normal for hurricanes and major hurricanes. " - NOAA
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@captegonviljoen8248 2024 is at or below normal, not as forecast by NOAA. Saharan Dust Layer may have effected season and Gulf water temps are cooler than last year. I checked. Hurricane's Rita and Michael as strong. Peak season ends in early October.
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@IAmebAdger No, that is not the cause of hurricanes. Hurricane development is not "simple".
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@challenger2031 The city of Tampa hired private contractors to try and get rid of all the debris. Luckily, it appears the eye is breaking up and moved south of Tampa, also wind will be coming from the East, not West, so storm surge not as bad. The potential was there for much greater destruction, but will not be as first feared. My ex-wife's home appears to be out of danger now. My cousin in Sarasota is still a question.
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@Alex-fm5ke Dry wind shear from top will most likely diminish winds, not increase them.
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@andrewgordon790 "2024 just below the Atlantic's historical average number of named storms and right at normal for hurricanes and major hurricanes." - NOAA
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@scottsears4996 "2024 just below the Atlantic's historical average number of named storms and right at normal for hurricanes and major hurricanes. " - NOAA I follow the data, predictions way off this cycle. Read what the experts say, not BBC editorial staff.
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@Alex-fm5ke El Niño’s influence: Wind shear tends to be stronger over the Atlantic during hurricane season. An El Niño event occurs when sea surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean basin become significantly warmer than average, while western Pacific Ocean basin waters become cooler than average. This happens every two to seven years or so, and it affects weather around the world. This is a weather cycle, not climate. NOAA is predicting the end of El Nino and beginning of a moderate La Nina, but still just a guess
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@kishanrao936 The "Season" is at or below normal and less than predicted by NOAA. That's what the experts from NOAA are saying, but not the editorial staff at BBC. Why?
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@kishanrao936 FL water temps are 10 degrees below this time last year. Easy to fact check. So not close to record hot. "So far, water temperatures aren't reaching dangerous levels this summer, although a couple of areas in Florida are already seeing ocean surface temperatures up to almost 91 degrees." - Florida News.
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@Ramesh98575 All good data. but NOAA prediction for this season is in error, they admit it. The ocean temp is down 10 degrees from last year. Is Milton the "FIRST" to drop below 905mb? How long has that been an accurate measurement as it is now? I don't doubt the possibility of human caused climate change due to Industrialization. I am concerned that possible fact has become an article of religious faith and emotion, something I fear is a more existential threat than our ability to successfully adapt to change. Many of the comments here just reinforce my concerns.
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@yoland5837 Yes, that would be a significant difference in terms of human life and infrastructure. My cousin lives close in Sarasota, and my ex-wife is in Clearwater, Pinellas County and already evacuated. She has a manufactured home. NOAA is the top expert in Atlantic hurricanes, there 2024 prediction is way off, they admit it. FL water temps are 10 degrees below where they were last year, and the El Nino wind shear effect may chop the head of Milton before land fall. The storm surge is already baked into tomorrow, but not the wind and rain.
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@kishanrao936 The 1921 Atlantic hurricane season was an active hurricane season, with 12 tropical cyclones forming. Among them, seven became tropical storms, of which five strengthened into hurricanes. Furthermore, two of these strengthened into a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, the most since the 1917 season. The strongest hurricane of the season, Hurricane Six, peaked as a Category 4 with winds of 140 mph (225 km/h), before weakening as it approached the Tampa Bay area where it made landfall.
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@Jeremy9697 Ad Hominem is a poor argument.
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@Ramesh98575 Yes, the predictions are on a 50/100 year scale with an error rate that increases with the time factor. I follow Bjorn Lomborg's Copenhagen Consensus and cost/benefit prioritization. Humans can and will adapt to these long-term changes, but the overreaction now could actually restrict our ability to adapt. Out of a dozen replies, perhaps 5%, including yours, were good faith, curious and thoughtful. That's the danger, not the climate.
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@franciscocortez2412 I'm in Southern California at the beach. Record cool weather since April, deep fog for the last 3 weeks.
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@andrew30m I have a book from the 1970s full of experts predicting a new Ice Age. "The Cooling" by Lowell Ponte. I have email contact with this author. Science is not about "experts" or "faith". There's no reason in "believing the science", that's the antithesis of the framework in which science is done. “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”. Richard Feynman
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Saharan dust outbreaks can decrease surface shortwave radiation, which can have a cooling effect on the ocean. 2024 conversation seems to revolve around the hurricane season and what appears to some to be a slow start. One of the most obvious factors that is keeping African tropical waves from organizing and crossing the Atlantic is the Saharan dust. We are being gaslighted by MSM about record high water temps. Clearwater FL off Tampa today is 82.0 °F, not a record.
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@kishanrao936 Clearwater FL off Tampa today, water temp 82.0 °F
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@kishanrao936 Storm surge predictions for Tampa Bay dropped from 10-15 feet now less than 3 as Cat 3 will make land further south and winds will be from the east. We are being hyper-emotionalized by those who wish us to change behavior they believe is dangerous to the planet. I don't like that. My ex-wife is in Clearwater FL just west of Tampa Bay, so I've been following the storm geeks, they provide facts, not emotion.
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@kishanrao936 Many factors, am watching live geek weather feeds, Cat 3 and dry high atmosphere wind shear helping to disorganize the storm. Based on what I read on NOAA, anything over 78 degrees will feed tropical storms in the Atlantic, but that's only one of many factors, and why predictions have high error rate. This season is below or at normal based on NOAA, not me.
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@Alex-fm5ke Milton Cat 3 1021MB rapidly losing energy, will not be even close to the 1921 Hurricane, or Rita or Michael.
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@andrewgordon790 Milton Cat 3 rapidly losing energy, Tampa safe, not even close to the energy of the 1921 Hurricane.
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@kishanrao936 Milton Cat 3 rapidly losing energy, not even close to the 1921 Hurricane.
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@ScholarsRest Milton now Cat 3. I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment, but Milton is now no longer comparable to the 1921 Hurricane, it's not even close. My point was to trigger those with an almost religious belief in human caused "climate change" ideology. Vast majority of replies were in that category, not yours. Rapid, accelerated warming has been going on, but the predictions of climate change are on a 50/150 year time scale, not this year, or even 10 years, and the error rate of predictions 100 years out is quite high. How do we plan when the error rate is that high. Should we prioritize now on predictions with an error rate that high, or focus now of issues we can impact right away. I life Bjorn Lomborg's take on it, although don't always agree with his presentation of data.
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@andrewgordon790 No, I've been tracking Milton for hours, my ex-wife is in Clearwater FL outside of Tampa. They eye has broken in half, energy is being sheared off by upper atmosphere winds, at landfall the winds will be from the East so much less surge. Even the weather geeks are bored by the storm at this point.
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@kishanrao936 CAT 2, eye sheared off before land fall, did spin a lot of tornado warnings, though, but since wind out of East, no big storm surge in Tampa Bay, but Siesta Key got nailed, again. Milton started out as a freak, but well in the normal range at landfall.
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Telling them what? Hurricane Rita and Michael were worse. You can fact check that.
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@publics.public 2024 Hurricane season is at or below normal. Check NOAA, I did.
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@leet3207 Rita and Michael hurricanes were stronger, Rita was 19 years ago.
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@drunkenhobo5039 Warming is only one factor in the generation of Atlantic Hurricanes, they are now tracking Saharan Dust Layer (SDL) which causes cooler ocean temps, and of course there is ENSO, the LaNina/ElNino cycle. MSM is gaslighting up, it's called the "Nudge Theory" to change our fossil fuel habit. NOAA and NOLA provides a lot of info, even for amateurs, but does not always track with the message our leaders want to present, so our leaders they lie.
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Earth is not a "mother", that is nonsense. "out of balance"? By what standard?
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@springa42 Not habitable for Mammals, that's only been 228 million years. LOL
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@mythtree6348 Right, Camels developed wide feet, not for sand, but first for snow. LOL
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This has nothing to with climate change, that's a guess, and used by those who want you to change your behavior, not based on facts. The climate change predictions are for 50/100 years out, not today. Milton is only the 5th strongest since records have been taken, and the 2024 Hurricane season is below or at normal based on NOAA predictions. Wake up, you are being nudged by "nudge theory" into doing things which may be bad for you.
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Storm is now moving East and will not hit Tampa directly. Storm surge predictions for Tampa Bay have been dramatically reduced since winds will come from the East. Use facts, not emotion.
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@white_genocide2050 Trump on the East Coast, not West, and Mar a Logo not in direct path, so?
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@challenger2031 Now predict only Cat 3, Milton moved East so Tampa will not get direct hit, storm surge for Tampa greatly reduced. Facts, not emotion.
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More like Rita and Michael. Check the records
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No, no it is not. New Orleans has very different topography than the West Coast of Florida.
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Not about "climate deniers" but those who emotionalize climate to modify human behavior based on models with a very high error rate. Dry high wind shear is disorganizing Milton. Now moving East, storm surge predictions for Tampa Bay have dramatically decreased since winds will come from the East, not West. Cat 3 still big, still dangerous, and is producing tornado cells, but to conflate this with catastrophic, man-made climate change happening now, is nonsense. Milton is not a record, it ranks 5th in the last 100 years. My ex-wife is in Clearwater FL, just west of Tampa, so I've been monitoring the weather geeks on the storm. They give facts, not emotion.
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