Comments by "Daniel Bradford" (@Falconlibrary) on "CNBC International Live"
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Taiwan is a democracy, unlike Communist China. In a Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation poll conducted in June 2020, 54% of respondents supported de jure independence for Taiwan, 23.4% preferred maintaining the status quo, 12.5% favored unification with China, and 10% did not hold any particular view on the matter. Taiwan has 23.5 million people. At least half of them want to leave. You really think 12 million people are going to just peacefully leave their country and go to Australia?
China's invasion of Taiwan would be more complicated than the Allied invasion of Normandy. China would have to transport over 500,000 troops over 160km of open water, during which time its navy would be a sitting duck for Taiwan's anti-ship missiles. Once the Chinese reach Taiwan, they'd find heavily fortified beaches, mud flats, and mountain ranges between them and the capital of Taipei. The Chinese navy and army also haven't fought in an actual war since 1979, when the Vietnamese army kicked their asses in a border dispute.
If the will of the Taiwanese people matter, 77.4% of them do NOT want reunification with mainland China. Your idea of a mass exodus is nonsense and your assessment of China's military capability reads like propaganda. Do you have any military service or training? Doesn't sound like it.
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