Comments by "Titanium Rain" (@ChucksSEADnDEAD) on "Secular Talk"
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"The guy in Las Vegas wouldn't have killed nearly as many people if he had used knives instead of guns" - the problem is that knives are not a proper mass casualty event weapon. Compare it to a truck bomb or something. Either way, the attackers in France also got their hands on guns so... when someone has money you can't easily stop them because funding gets weapons.
"would have been as dramatic without the policies Australia put in place." - that's actually very debatable.
De Leo, Dwyer, Firman & Neulinger,[47] studied suicide methods in men from 1979 to 1998 and found a rise in hanging suicides that started slightly before the fall in gun suicides. As hanging suicides rose at about the same rate as gun suicides fell, it is possible that there was some substitution of suicide methods. It has been noted that drawing strong conclusions about possible impacts of gun laws on suicides is challenging, because a number of suicide prevention programs were implemented from the mid-1990s onwards, and non-firearm suicides also began falling.[48]
Baker, Jeanine; McPhedran, Samara (18 October 2006). “Gun Laws and Sudden Death: Did the Australian Firearms Legislation of 1996 Make a Difference?”. British Journal of Criminology. 47 (3): 455–469.doi:10.1093/bjc/azl084.
Suicide reduction from firearm regulation is disputed by Richard Harding in his book “Firearms and Violence in Australian Life”[49] where, after reviewing Australian statistics, he said that “whatever arguments might be made for the limitation or regulation of the private ownership of firearms, suicide patterns do not constitute one of them” Harding quoted international analysis by Newton and Zimring[50] of twenty developed countries which concluded at page 36 of their report; “cultural factors appear to affect suicide rates far more than the availability and use of firearms. Thus, suicide rates would not seem to be readily affected by making firearms less available.“
Harding, Richard (1981). Firearms and Violence in Australian Life. Perth: University of Western Australia Press. p. 119. ISBN 0 85564 190 8
Newton, George; Zimring, Franklin (1968). "Firearms and Violence in American Life” (PDF). Report Submitted to the National Commission on the Causes & Prevention of Violence. Retrieved 8 February 2016.
In 2005 the head of the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Don Weatherburn,[51] said that the level of legal gun ownership in NSW increased in recent years, and that the 1996 legislation had little to no effect on violence. Professor Simon Chapman, former coconvenor of the Coalition for Gun Control, complained that his words “will henceforth be cited by every gun-lusting lobby group throughout the world in their perverse efforts to stall reforms that could save thousands of lives”.[52] Weatherburn responded, “The fact is that the introduction of those laws did not result in any acceleration of the downward trend in gun homicide. They may have reduced the risk of mass shootings but we cannot be sure because no one has done the rigorous statistical work required to verify this possibility. It is always unpleasant to acknowledge facts that are inconsistent with your own point of view. But I thought that was what distinguished science from popular prejudice.”[53]
Weatherburn, Don. “Statistics and gun laws”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 1 November 2005. Accessed 10 August 2010
In 2006, the lack of a measurable effect from the 1996 firearms legislation was reported in the British Journal of Criminology. Using ARIMA analysis, Dr Jeanine Baker and Dr Samara McPhedran, researchers with the International Coalition for Women in Shooting and Hunting (WiSH), found little evidence for an impact of the laws on homicide, but did for suicide.[54]
Baker, Jeanine; McPhedran, Samara (18 October 2006). “Gun Laws and Sudden Death: Did the Australian Firearms Legislation of 1996 Make a Difference?”. British Journal of Criminology. 47 (3): 455–469.doi:10.1093/bjc/azl084.
Subsequently, a study by McPhedran and Baker compared the incidence of mass shootings in Australia and New Zealand. Data were standardised to a rate per 100,000 people, to control for differences in population size between the countries and mass shootings before and after 1996/1997 were compared between countries. That study found that in the period 1980–1996, both countries experienced mass shootings. The rate did not differ significantly between countries. Since 1996-1997, neither country has experienced a mass shooting event despite the continued availability of semi-automatic longarms in New Zealand. The authors conclude that “the hypothesis that Australia’s prohibition of certain types of firearms explains the absence of mass shootings in that country since 1996 does not appear to be supported… if civilian access to certain types of firearms explained the occurrence of mass shootings in Australia (and conversely, if prohibiting such firearms explains the absence of mass shootings), then New Zealand (a country that still allows the ownership of such firearms) would have continued to experience mass shooting events.”[58]
McPhedran, Samara; Baker, Jeanine (2011). “Mass shootings in Australia and New Zealand: A descriptive study of incidence”. Justice Policy Journal. 8 (1).
A 2008 study on the effects of the firearm buybacks by Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi of The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne studied the data and concluded, “Despite the fact that several researchers using the same data have examined the impact of the NFA on firearm deaths, a consensus does not appear to have been reached. In this paper, we re-analyze the same data on firearm deaths used in previous research, using tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identifying impacts of the NFA. The results of these tests suggest that the NFA did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates.”[60]
Lee, Wang-Sheng; Suardi, Sandy (2010). “The Australian Firearms Buyback and Its Effect on Gun Deaths”. Contemporary Economic Policy. 28(1): 65–79. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7287.2009.00165.x.
"The reality is that stricter gun laws usually result in fewer gun deaths." - not really. Plenty of country with strict gun control laws like Brazil or Mexico have strict gun control laws and gun homicide is rampant.
https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/does-strict-gun-legislation-reduce-violent-crime-in-latam/
"In short, a regulated approach may reduce gun ownership and have an impact on petty crime and casual violence, but gun legislation alone will do little to reign in the criminal groups responsible for the rampant violence in the region’s most murderous areas."
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