Comments by "Lawrence D’Oliveiro" (@lawrencedoliveiro9104) on "3Blue1Brown"
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15:36 OK, here’s an interesting thought: one situation where, it seems, this issue of prior probabilities is explicitly ignored, is in the legal system. Here in 🇳🇿, we had a high-profile murder case where all details of the accused had been kept suppressed until just the last few days. It turns out the reason was that he was implicated in the deaths of some other victims, and the court wanted to be sure that these other cases would not influence the verdict in this one. Whereas it is now clear he is a serial offender, who has done this sort of crime several times, and will likely do it again.
In short, it seems the legal idea that each criminal trial should be run entirely independently, without regard to what might be happening in other trials of the same perp, is directly counter to Bayes’ Theorem.
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