Comments by "Aaron Okeanos" (@AaronOkeanos) on "PolyMatter" channel.

  1. Sadly a lot of westeners working and living for years in China can confirm this development. China drastically changed and lost it's appeal.
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  2. There is another angle to this topic. Migration. Thats why the xenophobic attitude of western countries nowadays is actually not helping them as some politicians feared people into believing but it makes everything even worse. Just think about the US right now. They getting a free gift of children shortly before their productive age and people want them gone. It's insane.
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  3. I would be interested in Turkey.
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  4. Part 4: Holding onto power ... and money Subtitle: How to prevent your own population from becoming your enemy.
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  5. Things are moving rapidly and I have a feeling something will happen within with next 10 years. And here is my reasoning for this opinion: 1) Xi Jingping moved away from the path of liberalization and opening up to the west reaching it's high around 2010. Things radically changed in the last decade, especially in the last years. Nowadays ordinary foreigners can't even travel to China anymore and existing foreigners have to deal with raging nationalism and attempts to make them leave or even direct actions to deport them. 2) Xi Jingping now announced this phase of liberalization was a necessary phase to get economical power and with that military power but it's now time to return to the original strategy. And indeed since he took over the spending on surveillance, soft-power and propaganda and the military reached new records. However on this point it's hard to say if he wants this for internal or external pressure (See this channels other videos on this). 3) The Chinese government is trying to cut dependencies and external influences. Journalists are forced to leave, Foreign Teachers are pushed out, ruined or deported, Foreign Bussinesses are taken over or ruined and replaced by new government connected companies. 4) There are signs of a change in doctrine. Signs and billboards resembling sovjet-style propadanda appear all over China. The national media produce more propaganda than ever. And there is Xi Jingpings new book. He clearly wants to go back to Mao-times and actually replace Mao and create a new version of it with him as leader. And he will most likly use every means necessary to get it. The only problem, he is not as popular as Mao and lacks the charisma so he may try to make up with actions and results what he lacks in charisma and popularity. Additional signs of this doctrine change are the recent 100 year celebration of the party and it's messaging. No longer trying to appeal to the world to get attention and respect, but instead demanding respect by show of force and (alleged) supremecy. The Olympics in Japan also shows a desperate attempt to show supremecy, strength, pride on a level last seen during the Cold War with the Sovjet Union. 5) The internal pressure is rising. Numerous social, demograhical, cultural and especially economical problems internally last but not least by Covid (now forcing a 2nd extremly unpopular harsh lockdown because of Delta spreading) forcing the government to apply more propaganda, censorship, surveillance and oppression than ever before. 6) China is struck by terrible natural disasters recently and over the last years among them Floods, Typhons and Covid threatening the "Mandate of Heaven" a strong belief in Chinese culture reaching back to the emperors and which is very strongly believed in China. The Communist Party is trying to suppress every information about it but events on this scale stay not unnoticed. The internal pressures rises and may make the Party deciding to do desperate measures to divert attention, apply oppression or provide an alternative reason for existence and continuation e.g. by external actions in worst case by trying to attempt a military solution for something. And there is Hongkong. 7) Hongkong is lost and maybe the best example what happens when "The Chinese government takes over". The West could not do much regarding Hongkong without breaking international treaties and breaking their own rules, but they will actively oppose this example being repeated on Taiwan. Final Remark We are in an era with a new type of war between Autocracy and Democracy between Freedom and Suppression, between Free Will and Control, between the Truth and Lies. And the battlefronts are everywhere. In media, in politics, within countries, between countries, in and between people, races, communities even between family and friends nowadays. And China has some of the battlefronts as well and at the same time is a battlefront itself.
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  6. It was a different government back then. It completly changed. The government is fighting to stay in power at all costs and is willing to make war against the own citizens to maintain it. China has litterally changed. If it would stay on the path of Openness 2008 things would look vastly different today.
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  7. Because they have neither the recipe and instructions nor the facilities and know-how to make them themselves. And as long as Covid exists somewhere it's a risk to the whole planet only a planet-wide vaccination can solve.
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  8. Why is 2024 removed from these speculations about potential invasions? - 2024 is the "Year of the Dragon" -- The west may not care and Mao removed all religions but some superstitions remained and some people in China might see it as a "good year". - The "Mandate of Heaven" comes into question which scares the hell out of the CCP -- Another superstitution China could not remove with the revolution. The numerous floods, drouts and storms in the last years and especially this year hitting even the heart of power in Bejing is making the CCP very uneasy. These "signs" usually indicate the end of a dynasty and the CCP is a dynasty of China just a modernized form. - Xi changed Chinas nature totally. Instead of young teenger trying to get acknowledge by the world they now prefer to challenge and potentially dominate it. Inward orientated, nationalistic, militaristic, self-sufficiant (if possible), xenophobe, propagandistic, communistic he wants to top Mao and may even want to replace him with himself in Chinese society. And invading Taiwan might just be the trick to surpass him. - The economic pressure on the CCP grows domestic and foreign. All economic indicators showing a significant downward trend and we and I think not even the CCP itself has reliable data on the true extend of the problem because local governments are too afraid to submit bad news. - It's bubbling below the surface of Chinese society. There are single outbreaks of dissent and even protests unheared of before. Rarly noticed and highly suppressed but some leak through. And the frequency is rising. The central government needs more and more resources to keep it under control. A common goal in form of a war might be a measure of a desperate man trying to unite the people to ensure loyalty and to prevent to be replaced. Xi removed all potential rivals and acts one the slightest signs of illoyalty. - 2024 is an election year in the US. Always a time of instability especially after Jan-06 and Trump still around. The division in the country created a slight instability. And there is a ton of misinformation about loyalties of each candidate to China making Americans question the motives of their leaders regarding China. I'd say hope for the best but prepare for the worst. If humanity indeed tries a war based on nuclear weapons we are either back in the stoneage a shadow of what we are today or our path as a species ends here.
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  9. If the UK would have adopted the Euro the Euro would today most likely the majority currency and one of the most stable ever as well. And sometimes I think if it weren't better that way so neighter the US nor China have infuence on it.
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  10.  @d.veloso9640  Good actually. Greece was forced to end solving financial issues by money printing which enabled a better more stable and sustainable future. The cost reduction are draconic but lead to improvement. In 2019 greece had a record growth and even one of the largest in the EU.
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  11. The funny thing about this that China is more or less forced to fast track through the progressions America and maybe more Europe took for decades if not centuries and now more or less arrived in the 1930'ties the time between Boom and Political Instability to the inside and outside. It's like there is a universal building plan or a universal rule set human civilizations have to go throught. Chinas government wants to skips some things in order to stay in sweet spot but reality and laws of development don't want to cooperate and starting to taking it's toll to keep up this resistence to change. And the longer this resistence to change keeps up the more costly, more difficult and more dangerous the upholding against this force is. Like staying in a stream of cold water. The Chinese government now becomes afraid of this change which would provide it's own citizens with more Freedom, more openness to the world, more cooperation and exchange and potentially even Democracy just out of need to continue to operate. And so the fight between upholding the status quo of power and the need to open up society and change to more reasonable and more sustainable politics and economies create a ever increasing tension-field. How the end result would look like? Simple just look at Taiwan. It shows how China could be like one of the best countries in Asia. Open, Free, Friendly, polite, modern and old at the same time. If China would be like Tawain China would really rule the world but as a positive and also a benefit for the rest of the world.
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  12. You don't know it yet or better you don't want to accept it but you not fighting against any country here. This is just a Chinese matter and the dynamics of civilizations. These are like laws of nature, like water is wet like ice is cold. You can fight against these effects, cover up the informations and reasons about it, make a story up, blame it on someone else but in the long run you lose against reality. Have you not noticed that this video not even once mentioned another country? This is just China vs. Demography, China vs. Nature, China vs. Laws of Economics, China vs. Laws of Physics. China is up to a challenge all countries have to deal with on their own. It's easier to deal with some of those issues by opening up to the world again. But the Chinese government instead decided the opposit and now reality is taking it's toll. The Rest of the World is not cooperating on the principles of Democracy, the Rule of Law, Freedoms and Human Right just because the US forced everyone to do so or because of circumstances of History especially WW2, but because it makes dealing with some problems easier and more reliable and frankly less costly.
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  13. Actually he already did in this video. But it's only described as an agressive dog or should I say wulf.
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  14. Things are changing. The US now makes a new plant in Arizona for 20 bn $. In Germany the company Bosch starts making semiconductors. Both will help reducing the dependency on Taiwan.
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  15. Example: 5-year plan now up says there is no poverty anymore and now noone is helping the poor anymore because after state dogma there is none anymore ... or so they say.
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  16. Well than the original problems which lead to the 1-child policy come back again. And 8 times stronger.
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  17. In other words China turns from a teenager seeking attention and confirmation into a young adult bully because of inadequacies and lack of wisdom.
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  18. Those "expats" are the single child. And no statistically you need 2.1 children per family to maintain population. However expanding population under the current circumstances creates other problems. And even if you start today it needs a generation, which would be 2 generations too late. A solution would be to allow more immigration. But China is maybe one of the worst nations for this approach. It closed to prevent exactly this.
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  19. If Mainland China would be like Taiwan China would rule the world. Scientific, Economical, Political, Social, Cultural. Taiwan is what China should have been, what China could have been.
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