Comments by "Aaron Okeanos" (@AaronOkeanos) on "Top election predictor: TRUMP LIKELY WINNER if Biden is replaced" video.

  1. And was there ever a debate when one side was as bad as everyone expected and the other side shocked the nation with his performance because the people around him managed to keep it under wraps for a longer time?
    6
  2. Some people on Trumps side want democracy replaced because it stopped delivering for them. This is why they accept a "1-day dicator" ignoring the dangers with it. They see good economic numbers but they don't feel it because their inflation-corrected wages did not grow since the 80ties. They want change and Biden only stands for the old for more of the same. Trump promisses change radical change and they take it no matter where it leads because status quo is not an option anymore. How is his model of "Keys to White House" incorporating this?
    1
  3. Bidens last travel before the debate was 12 days ago. A hell of a jetlag. And the time was known weeks in advance it was not really a surprise so he could prepare and sleep enough and whatever he needed.
    1
  4. Bernie don't want to run and although mentally fitter than Biden is even older and the DNC will never accept a progressive or even consider one althought there would be some candidates who could really put Trump in hot water like Katie Porter or AOC or Jasmine Crockett (who would also solve the black-woman issue).
    1
  5. I think Mr. Lichtman is underestimating that this election is based on emotions. More so than any other election before. It is not rational in fact on Trump it is irrational and his models are less applicable.
    1
  6. I think this is the problem. This guy is 77 and at the end of his career. His theories are obsolete and no campaign books him for advisory roles anymore. His book drops in sells. He is too scared to disappear so he tries desperatly to go on because he is afraid what happens when he stops. The same issue as Biden actually. And he never learned how to properly live this is why retirement is not an option for him.
    1
  7. It was not exactly voluntary to launder the dirty clothes in public does it. It happened because Biden was so bad that everyone could witness it. What the DNC and people around him tried to hide since 2020. Pretending from this moment "all is well" became a problem of it's own. This is what Biden is fighting - himself.
    1
  8. Biden is not just running against Trump he is running against himself against his own inadequacies. All his public appearances are now under a fine microscope and every fault or mistake will increase doubts about his abilities and in the worst case his faculties. And the other side will pick up this debate and everything which comes after and use it against him in ads and rallies. And contrary to most of the other stuff this is not a lie and cannot be denied because everyone witnesses it. Any denial will be seen as deception on behalf of the democrats who are already under doubt thanks to 4 years of massive propaganda against Joe Biden (not the Democrats Biden!). This is another argument for replacement. That with Biden going 4 years of propaganda against him would be voided and whoever follows him can start on a clean slate.
    1
  9. For Trump supporters Trump is the incumbent since Trump managed to maintain the election lie and half of the country thinks something was wrong with the last election or at least have doubt. How does his model work when you have two incumbants? And: Does he really think people will attribute Bidens achievements to Kamala Harris? Naive!
    1
  10. Maga wants Biden to run as well. Biden is the only chance Trump has to win.
    1
  11. Because the people around Biden couldn't hide his issues anymore. It was widely visible. Biden himself triggered this.
    1
  12. Trump managed to keep the election lie of 2020 alive until today. Half the country thinks the last election was not correct or at least have doubts and think that's why Trump lost. For these people Trump is an incumbant making Biden's incumbancy null and void.
    1
  13. MSM was worried because of the donors who threatens to pull money from the campaign with Biden (money which will go to them for ads). They just want their investments save and not bet on the wrong horse so to speak. They not want to lose their investment. Incidentally this fits what most voters want but for another reason (to avoid fascistic tendencies under Trump). Your prejudices towards MSM (usually justified I have to agree) taint your clear thinking on this instance. We accidentally want the same result for different reasons.
    1