Comments by "Kim" (@KimTiger777) on "Econ Lessons"
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I agree on most of things you mentioned but as an engineer I disagree on that part on what will happen next generation factories, because previous generation required 50 factory workers as assemblers, movers, etc. but the next generation there will only be 5 factory workers that works as technicians, overseers and the factory is online 24/7/365 whereas the older gen was 12/6/250 (ranging from 200 to 300 days/year). So factory output is over doubling, and also the type of work is more demanding in the mental space vs the old gen that was mostly physical demanding. Factories that don't upgrade to next gen are going the way of dinosaurs did, because you know the way the economics works. There are many benefits of producing consumed goods as locally as possible, again economics in play. China will not be able to compete on a leveled playing field, of course they will try to state subsidize their industry but that will fail. America should automate everything, and so does Europe, because depending of Asia is stupid on so many levels. It is irrelevant what Trump say or thinks, future will come one way or the other, my fear is that China could interfere in this natural progression by pushing high-tech industries out of America/Europe so that the know-how and industrial capacity will be eradicated (luckily the trend is turning). A very dangerous position to be in if only one country (here: China) has the capacity on industrial scale because then that country could effectively become a techno-monarchy which will go to war on anyone trying to dig their way out of their dependence.
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You know what the irony with trades is? Putin thought he was so smart by making Europe addicted to cheap Russian oil and gas, but here is the thing, it works both ways by that Western tech and supplies started to integrate into Russia. And now things are slowly starting to fall apart, a train here, a plane there, a very specialized oil valve breaks down in the tundra etc. And all of the cost of replacing things like that starts to mount up a very high cost. And to make it even funnier; Even if Russia did switch over to All-Made-In-Russia across all industry chains and such, they would not in a million years be able to compete against other countries that uses Western tech. China is trying but even they are slowly realizing they are failing epically. You know the children's story about the man who used walk miles to carry water to town for selling it for one piece of copper, and then one day that person came up with brilliant yet a simple idea; Hey how about I dig a water pipe so I don't have to carry it all the way to the town? At first all the towns people laughed at him, but the day he finished it, he was the one laughing and his pocket was full of silver. Putin is trying to go against known economical sense, you do NOT start a war without the economics supporting it, because waging a war is EXPENSIVE as hell, Putin is burning a portal of hell with his doing. Putin is not a wise man, and he is FAFO.
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What puzzles me about people like Putin is their lack of understanding how economy works, economy at the simplest level is easy to understand. Economy is exchange of goods and services, and for it to be in health condition the trade or exchange has to be equally beneficial, so in simple terms economy is a symbiotic relationship (producers and consumers). I know this is an oversimplification but still this explains why authoritarian countries are so bad at fostering a healthy economy. Putin just takes and takes and leaves little to nothing for the rest of his country. China also suffers from this kind of unhealthy economics but in this context of being only one sided trade by only producing goods but not really consuming goods produced from others (with the negative effects it has on countries trading with China being jobs are lost and over time even knowledge, making them even more dependent on China). This is why I like USA because a trade is symbiotic in terms of sharing the worker pool (jobs) and knowledge which gives both countries of creating more wealth (cooperating for shared benefit). I must say as an European I am very disappointed that EU hasn't taken a strong stance against China's predatory trading practice (especially Germany, do you want to destroy your own car manufacturing capabilities?). We should be standing strong with USA in an united front against this unfair, uneven trading practices by China. As fewer and fewer countries want to accept Rubles the less it is worth, and Putin will be forced to trade away Russia's gold reserves for goods meaning Russia is getting poorer on two fronts, and to burn a hole in Russia's wallet by waging a costly war on top of all that. When soldiers won't get paid then they will eventually revolt against Putin, so his only choice left are to massively print Rubles in order to pay all soldiers and officers but that will cause a dramatic increase in inflation. So basically Russian ruble is worthless. If I was living in Russia I would have done all I could to stay away from Ruble, and accepting USD, Euro, gold or even Bitcoin. The smarter ones have already left Russia because who in the right mind would want to experience a total economic crash?
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Xi wants to dominate in all important sectors and especially semiconductors because with that is the ultimate control that if CCP did reach total supremacy in semiconductors, Xi would be able control everyone on Earth by first taking the lead then start to bleed out all competition so that within a generation or two the core know-how would only remain in China. Just like a modern version of the forbidden city where secret technologies are kept, and over time will appear as wild as magic for all outside of the CCP circle, for all humans on Earth. I see all of semiconductors on Earth as more dangerous than all nuclear weapons combined, and no one alone should have that much power. Ever.
On an important side note I am worried about Venezuela, that the voting is clear as sky, that the Maduro just ignored the peoples votes by declaring himself as onces more as President. I hope that all of the democratic nations gets together and find way to shutdown Maduro, preferably with a collective military operation to clean out those pesky communists that are protecting Maduro. China, Russia and Iran was very quick to congratulate Maduro of his so-called victory. Red flags all the way, time to stomp down those red flags and replace it with blue flags. As long as we have dictatorships here on Earth there will NEVER be total peace, so the conclusion is clear as blue skies. Down with the Reds
Edit: I heard that Ukrainians did manage to shutdown a Russian/Putin militant operation in one of the countries in Africa. Big Win for the Blue team!
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