Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "China's Geography Problem" video.

  1. The U.S. policy vis-a-vis Taiwan has been intentional ambiguity for several decades. The U.S. goal in the region has been to avoid a war at all costs. Because of this, the United States has consistently pressured Taiwan against any declaration of independence, something the PRC has stated that it will not tolerate. Chinese investment in air and sea power make American defense of the island more costly and less likely to succeed with every passing year and American military experts are aware of this. Whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan during a Chinese invasion would probably depend today on what other global obligations America was dealing with but over time that will matter less and less. I think that Taiwan is going to be reunited into the mainland whether they like it or not but China is not going to invade in the short term unless the government in Taipei blatantly disregards American instructions, at which point America might well be unwilling to shed blood to defend them. If there is no short term invasion then eventually the military balance of power in the region between the U.S. and China will move towards equalization. Once that occurs China will probably enforce its claim and the United States will limit it's defense of Taiwan to angry rhetoric and possible economic sanctions.
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  2. Jeffrey Hsu, that's a really good point. I wish I'd have thought of that.
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