Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "Liberty Vault" channel.

Mearsheimer sees China as the greater threat because they are the more powerful country. He advocates cozying up to Russia for the same reason Nixon and Kissinger cozied up to China. I'm not going to say categorically that he's not racist, because I don't know, but his analysis does not require racism. If Russia was the more powerful country he would advocate for a tighter relationship with China against Russia. My difference with Mearsheimer is his belief that the two largest countries could never get along well enough to cooperate for the greater benefit of humanity. I recognize his realist views, but I'm much more optimistic about our options. I hold out the possibility that we can avoid the Thucydides Trap.
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@Andy-P That's kind of what disputed borders are, two countries decide that a piece of territory is theirs and then they use the resources at their disposal to control that territory, or at least to keep their rival from controlling that territory. That can include their own military resources, or the military resources of a sympathetic ally, or diplomatic resources. As for the United States being able to destroy ships at 2000km or greater distance from shore, that means that ship defenses on both sides are likely to be tested in a U.S.-China conflict, and even more so as aerial and aquatic (and even submersible) drones take an ever larger combat role.
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The Chinese understand that a war with the United States is going to be punishing. The Chinese lost a million soldiers in Korea. That's not forgotten. The Chinese also don't want to go to war to reincorporate Taiwan and then lose. This would no only be a serious military, diplomatic, and economic setback, but it would be seen as an exacerbation of the century of humiliation, so they want to be reasonably sure of victory before making that kind of commitment. Resistance in Taiwan is an unknown quantity, as is participation of Western-leaning states in the region. To be on the safe side, China has to feel like they can overcome all of that. That being said, the Chinese people won't wait forever. And if the government in Taiwan declares independence, it may very well force the mainlanders to act before they are fully ready.
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@wanghui562 Fair enough, I can be very long-winded. I hope that the reunification is peaceful, and that I can see it before I die.
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It depends on what you mean by "dominated". If you mean a world where China tells other great powers what they can and can't allow on their media platforms, that's never going to happen. That's not how China operates, and it's unlikely that it ever will.
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@johnli6782 But in a world with no higher authority and powerful hostile agents, you need to cultivate the capacity to fight and win, even if your intentions are peaceful.
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@testphone8379 By "your own turf", do you mean your own territory? What about disputed territory? What are the territorial concerns of a hegemon? I largely agree that hegemonic powers should respect the neighborhoods of other hegemons. I also believe that small countries owe it to their people to get along with their local hegemons, even if it means occasionally acquiescing to their demands. Hegemons also have an obligation to protect their client states. In the western Pacific one hegemon is growing at another's expense. If we're not willing to discuss the shift in influence openly and honestly, then there is going to be some friction.
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@testphone8379 I don't know if China has enough missiles to overwhelm fleet defenses. They might.
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@testphone8379 I have not. Some argue that Chinese steel production is reliant on other countries for coal and iron ore. Whether or not they could replace those materials with domestic or reliable rail-route sources is beyond my knowledge. I think some of China's imports are optional—why not use up other peoples' resources now and save yours for later?—but it takes a while to set up new iron mines.
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@testphone8379 I'm sure that would be the case.
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@andrewlim7751 Yes, I do know why the Chinese keep building their navy. And judging by the concentration of destroyers and corvettes, I think they've got submarines on their minds.
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