Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "China is launching more spy satellites than US. Is US losing that race?" video.

  1.  @joemikey278  I agree that much of the South China Sea should be outside of credible claims for China, however, the Chinese don't see it that way for two reasons. The first is that they've been able to acquire an ancient map that described those waters as Chinese. The Chinese position isn't so much that these were Chinese waters so much as that these waters were part of Imperial China and therefore are now part of modern China. This is a difference in cultural perspective that most non-Chinese dismiss. There is also the practical importance of these waters. Because so much of Chinese trade passes through these waters they want to be able to make sure they're not going to be blockaded there (The Japanese and Koreans could say the same, but balance of power and all). I suspect that in the end the Chinese are going to win this fight. But for the immediate future it's just going to be awkward and uncomfortable for everyone.
    3
  2.  @joemikey278  I think we're largely in agreement. My point about an attack on carriers is that if we weren't at war prior to the sinking of a carrier, we would be immediately thereafter. Military leadership in China is very hawkish indeed and part of the challenge of the Chinese premiership is keeping the generals on a leash while still maintaining their political support. I do think Premier Xi is up to the challenge on that one, though it is reasonable to be concerned about potential successors. Regardless of what the Chinese generals say or think, a full-blown military contest with the United States at this time would be a disaster for them. It probably would be no picnic for the United States either with heavy losses at sea and in the air. How and why it all started would play a big role in both domestic and international support for the U.S. operations. If a carrier were taken out just because it was patrolling the South China Sea then the U.S. population would almost certainly rally 'round the need to avenge the attack. If after a declaration of independence China began military operations to reincorporate Taiwan and the United States injected itself and then took casualties because of that then global and domestic support for the United States would be more tepid. I'd still put my money on the U.S. Navy as the ultimate victor for at least the next two decades either way. I wanted to say something about this part of your post: "Maybe Egypt should claim the entire Mediterranean sea, because they have ancient trade route maps. How about Norway/Vikings claiming the entire Baltic Sea. They were the first to establish sailing routes there! So, for most of the rest of the world, the South China Sea maritime claims along with East China Sea Maritime claims seem stupid silly and against modern international law!" The reason the South China Sea claims are not "stupid silly" is because unlike Egypt and Norway, in a couple of decades China's going to have the wherewithal to back up their claim practically. China cares a lot more about the territory than it does about international convention and because those rules were set up at a time of Chinese weakness the Chinese leaders will be quite comfortable dismissing them once they are powerful enough to do so, saying that their needs weren't considered at the time. They will have the support of the Chinese people and probably some others with non-conforming claims or a desire to ingratiate themselves with the Chinese. The East China Sea claims are actually more legitimate in the big picture, but not the way Beijing is painting it. The Daiyou islands were returned to China along with the rest of occupied China including Taiwan by the Allies after the defeat of the Japanese in 1945. Being that the PRC never took the islands during the Chinese Civil War the islands are still part of the Republic of China currently residing on Taiwan. If the PRC government were taking advice from me they would back the Taiwanese claim on the islands understanding that at some point most likely around 2049 they'd get them back anyway as Taiwan is reintegrated into the People's Republic one way or another. Of course they have no reason to listen to me so they don't.
    3
  3.  @triumphant39  As a fellow American I think there is a flaw in your logic. Anything can happen over time and China surpassing the United States militarily at some point is no more ridiculous than assuming that the United States would one day surpass the might of the British Empire back in the day. The U.S. military today is much larger than the Chinese military and will be for some time. Right now the U.S. is producing large stocks of modern cutting edge equipment which is the best in the world. While China is technologically behind the U.S. it is concentrating on producing a few cutting edge armaments so that it can catch up technologically without sinking more resources into production of what may yet be inferior platforms beyond what's necessary to mount a credible defense of its territory and maybe a little intimidation of its weaker neighbors. I suspect once the Chinese feel confident in the parity of Chinese weapons and training to that of the United States you'll probably see a lot more production. And because weaponry and training become obsolete quickly, numerical parity of effective weaponry can be achieved in a relatively short time once the arms race is on. A really good example of this is Soviet Russia vs. Nazi Germany in WWII.
    2
  4.  @joemikey278  If China destroys an American carrier battle group then the two countries are at war. Should the United States attack Chinese territory with nuclear weapons (assuming that China didn't use nuclear weapons to destroy the carriers) than that would be a serious escalation and probably more than what non-Trumpian military commanders would order because it very well could lead to mutually assured destruction. We believe that the United States has a lot more nuclear weapons than China. And that may very well be correct, though China has what is believed to be a nationwide tunnel complex worthy of a herd of Bond villains and if we know what's in those tunnels it hasn't made it to my ears. Neither side has any strong desire to go to war with the other but China has a lot of unfinished business in the region and the status quo that we're trying to preserve is one that the Chinese don't feel like they have any investment in or expected return on. But the Chinese are careful and smart and usually the Americans are too. Both sides are perfectly happy to shake their finger at each other without picking up any rocks.
    2
  5.  @joemikey278  Despite what you, I or anyone else wants, China is not going to "succeed with freedom and human rights" beyond the reproach of critics until it has a more comfortable grip on the parts of the country that were compromised during its weak period from 1839-present, during which time Xinjiang, Tibet, Mongolia, Hong Kong, Macau and later Taiwan were separated to various degrees politically from the Chinese government. So long as there are semi-credible secession movements in any of these or any other Chinese location then the Chinese government will not be able to comfortably relax its grip on the people. This will be the case regardless of which kind of ideology the government follows. No concept is more important to China, and this includes the great majority of Chinese people, than imperial integrity. So long as the government is viewed as strong and relatively uncorrupt than the people will stand behind it. And frankly, a strong, secure, centralized autocracy is better for the Chinese people than a weak and chaotic democracy. China may someday become a democracy. China may never become a democracy. If they do it will be in their own time and pushing them from outside is doing them no favors.
    1
  6.  @joemikey278  Thank you for the compliment and keep writing, your perspective is valued.
    1
  7. If it's under the US Air Force then it's not a 5th military branch.
    1
  8.  @matthewbaldwin964  Yeah, I should have checked before I spoke, though it really doesn't make sense to me.
    1
  9.  @muchadoaboutnothing6196  I always thought of the Marine Corps as a corps rather than a branch. It's tiny next to the Army and the Air Force. I have a lot of respect for Marines; I got along well with them when I was in the Army and I'm not trying to diminish them in any way here but as part of the Navy I never considered them a branch of service.
    1