Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "What the US-China War in the Pacific Could Look Like?" video.

@electrogestapo I don't think China has any real enemies right now. The closest would be the United States, Australia, Japan and India. I think Australia and India would be negligible military allies except for staging purposes. If Japan opts in, which I think is a very questionable proposition, after all, they have the most to lose, they could bring some fire to the stove. It's possible (and maybe even probable) that other countries would view a forceful Chinese repatriation of Taiwan as grounds for determining China to be an enemy, but most of those countries are a long way from the field of battle and, with the possible exception of Britain, probably unwilling to sacrifice their children to stop it. I don't see Russia siding with the United States against China. To the extent that they get involved at all, it will probably be to supply raw materials to China. Despite what some folks are saying about the feelings of love for America from Russia's youth, Russia's interest will be for the degradation of power in both the United States and China. They'll probably do their best to keep the conflict going and to keep the conflict localized. There are countries that have issues with China in the region, but they are substantially smaller than China in all regards and they're not going to piss in the eye of the local dragon at the behest of an unreliable eagle that lives on the other side of the sea. The more balanced the power between the United States and China, the more careful China's neighbors will be in walking the tightrope between them. If China is not already at war with their neighbors, then their neighbors are not going to go to war with China.
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I'm not sure that's the case. A lot of countries are not going to want to get involved. China is developing deep commercial ties all over the globe and the United States hasn't proven to be a reliable friend lately.
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@electrogestapo My point is that a lot of these countries may not choose to see China as their enemy.
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@electrogestapo First of all, yes, by a war I am referring to belligerents in combat. Anything short of that is diplomacy. China has complicated relationships with varying countries. The only countries that are actively trying to sabotage China's progress right now are the United States and Australia, and I wouldn't even call them enemies at this stage. We still have too many common interests, too many deep connections, and too many people who aren't interested in mutual suffering. We're more like dirty cheating rivals. If war broke out that could all change. China might find countries lining up against them. I think the U.S. might be surprised though by how few countries, especially local countries, throw their lot in against China. China's unlikely to be destroyed in the war and even if they are unable to take Taiwan they're still going to be the dominant player in their region, only now they'll be angry and vindictive. Countries realize this and they have to look at their bigger picture. I'm sorry you don't care for my use of metaphors. Sometimes I like to add a little color to this otherwise dry debate. I hardly think it indicates lack of intelligence. Your criticism of it is fine—different strokes and all. But your vitriolic approach indicates a disconcerting lack of self-control. I hope at some point you grow out of that.
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Space assets may well prove to be the most vulnerable.
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@tshavfengvang7831 Enemies of the state that might actually field troops (1) USA (2) UK (3) Japan (4) India (5) Australia. I still think Japan is an extreme long shot. India, attacking in the extremely difficult to supply Himalayas, and Australia, with no significant military strength, together wouldn't provide enough force to effect the outcome of a war. A combination of weakness and distance would have the British playing a minor role, but they might still get a speaking part. That leaves the real defense of the island in the hands of the Americans and the residents of Taiwan itself. By the way, I've indulged your description, but not one of those countries you listed are enemies of China at this date. Right now China has no enemies at the state level, though it has several at the state wannabe level.
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Satellite resources will probably be the first things destroyed once it is determined that the United States is participating. Bombers may have the range to come from the states, but fighter escorts are going to require refueling, which they might get. An amphibious assault force will certainly have vulnerabilities, but it only takes a few hours to get across those straits by ship so the bulk of the troops will probably float across before a proper open water defense can be mounted. China also has amphibious aircraft that can bring troops and supplies not just to airfields but to beaches and lakes as well if they can control the skies.
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@badguy1481 I don't share your confidence in the protection of satellites. I don't think China is ready to take Taiwan now, but I think they are close, at least militarily. I think the numbers of ships and boats that China can dedicate to the supply route is sufficient to supply landed troops. I think a lot of them would perish initially, but in the long run I think the supply line would be secure. China's proximity to the battle would prove highly advantageous when it came to aerial support and missile defense. If the US managed to land large numbers of troops on the island and then secured its supply lines on the eastern side then it may become a war of attrition, but that's a challenge as well. I'm not sure how much resistance vs. support China would have from the local population. Most Taiwan residents are Chinese after all. I think many of the more level-headed residents might very well decide to throw their lot in with the PLA.
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