Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)" channel.

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  3. I see three possibilities here that I will rank from least evil to most evil. The first is that it was a mistake—either a targeting mistake or an intelligence error. I haven't seen any sign of Ukrainian artillery going off-target before, especially regarding the HIMARS system, if that is what indeed hit the instalation and DPA says that the existence of the POW prison was common knowledge, but who knows? The second is that the Ukrainians believed that the facility was being used to store or hide Russian assets. This was the argument made by Russia when they attacked Ukrainian malls and hospitals, and in at least some cases there appeared to be pretty solid evidence that this was indeed the case. If this is the case then either Russia was hiding assets at the prison or Ukraine had an ingtelligence failure. The third possibility is that either Ukraine or Russia destroyed the facility with the intent of blaming the other side in hopes of demonstrating how evil the other side is. This is the only scenario I can think of where the Russians (or their allies) might be to blame. The fact that there were well over a hundred casualties among the prisoners and only eight among their captors seems a bit suspicious to me, but I don't know anything about running a prison so maybe I'm out of line on that suspiscion. Outside of the successful false flag expectation, whether perpetrated by the Russians or the Ukrainians, I don't see how benefits could possibly outweigh the costs of such a strike. Unfortunately, with this event and all others like it, we're never going to get an unbiased investigation, so I guess people will believe what they want to believe.
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  11. Both would dominate because they would be the largest and most influential members by a long shot. If you have an organization with one superpower in it, that superpower will dominate all of the decision making (see NATO). It wouldn't be because Russia has evil intentions necessarily, but because Russia would feel compelled to promote the interests of their people over that of others, and they'd have the heft to do so. Right now in the European Union, Germany has an outsized influence because they are the biggest dog in the yard. This sometimes chafes the other members who feel like their interests are neglected when they don't align with the Germans, and they're correct. If Russia were brought in, it would be at the extreme expense of Germany and France. Your read on China is simplistic and stupid. China is one of the least aggressive and least restrictive global influencers the world has seen in the last half-century. Certainly they are for their size and strength. In fact, it's fair to criticize them for not being active enough internationally, and many do criticize them for this very reluctance. They are opportunistic and if you don't negotiate skillfully with them they will take advantage of it, but they have no intention of enslaving anyone, or even forcing ideological requirements. They do intend to dominate their region, like the United States does in the Western hemisphere and like Russia is currently trying to do in the current conflict, but that is only natural for a great power. It's not overly invasive. If you're a small weak country, it's absolutely imperative that you accommodate your stronger neighbors for the betterment of your people. Sometimes you can play two strong neighbors off of each other, but you need to be aware of their red lines, and you need to make sure you don't cross them.
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