Alan Friesen
Defense Politics Asia (DPA)
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Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "[ Donetsk Front ] Ukr HIMARS strike on "Mariupol" POW barracks in Olenivka (SW of Donetsk City)" video.
I see three possibilities here that I will rank from least evil to most evil. The first is that it was a mistake—either a targeting mistake or an intelligence error. I haven't seen any sign of Ukrainian artillery going off-target before, especially regarding the HIMARS system, if that is what indeed hit the instalation and DPA says that the existence of the POW prison was common knowledge, but who knows? The second is that the Ukrainians believed that the facility was being used to store or hide Russian assets. This was the argument made by Russia when they attacked Ukrainian malls and hospitals, and in at least some cases there appeared to be pretty solid evidence that this was indeed the case. If this is the case then either Russia was hiding assets at the prison or Ukraine had an ingtelligence failure. The third possibility is that either Ukraine or Russia destroyed the facility with the intent of blaming the other side in hopes of demonstrating how evil the other side is. This is the only scenario I can think of where the Russians (or their allies) might be to blame. The fact that there were well over a hundred casualties among the prisoners and only eight among their captors seems a bit suspicious to me, but I don't know anything about running a prison so maybe I'm out of line on that suspiscion.
Outside of the successful false flag expectation, whether perpetrated by the Russians or the Ukrainians, I don't see how benefits could possibly outweigh the costs of such a strike. Unfortunately, with this event and all others like it, we're never going to get an unbiased investigation, so I guess people will believe what they want to believe.
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