Alan Friesen
Alexander Mercouris
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Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "Rus Missiles Hit Targets, Ukr AD Failure; Rus Advances, Tanks Stepovoye; West Escalation Taiwan, ME" video.
@antyspi4466 I don't think Beijing fears an insurrection. The CPC has the full faith of the Chinese people and Xi Jinping is solid in the support of the party elite at this time. They're not really worried about secession either. There are secessionist movements in some regions, but they are small. China does worry about terrorism from these groups, but it's more about protecting the population than it is about genuine loss of territory.
These things I understand. What I don't understand is why China makes threatening comments towards Taiwan at every election that it has to realize only strengthens the DPP. There are a couple possibilities, the first is that China's leadership is just stupid when it comes to elections. I don't really believe this, but it's an outside possibility. Another possibility is that it's all for domestic consumption. If the Chinese people believed that Xi or the party were ever to reconcile with the idea of letting Taiwan escape, it might undercut their legitimacy, and this may be a way of signalling to the Chinese people that they still are pushing a hard line. A third possibility is that China is confident that it could take Taiwan back militarily, but that they would prefer to do so after the government of Taiwan declared independence because of how that would play internationally, and by having the DPP in office, the odds of getting that justification for action is higher. I don't think China can yet be confident of a military victory, but I'm nobody in particular and I'm not privy to China's or anyone else's actual assessment of the endgame likelihood. Of these three possibilities I lean heavily towards the second, but I'm not real happy with that choice either. Maybe there is another reason I just can't think of, but I'm dead certain that China is not afraid of Taiwan or any of Taiwan's supporters within the country.
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