Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "China Assesses Biden's Pledge to Defend Taiwan as Bluff, Prepares to Call Bluff" video.

  1.  @Rampart.X  "Communism is Globalist." Not the version with Chinese characteristics.
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  2.  @drbuckley1  The independence of Taiwan does threaten the existence of a unified China, which is what the people of China expect the government to achieve. But you're right in one sense—China will survive as a concept as it has through many periods of dissolution. No Chinese outside of Taiwan wants to accept that version of existence though.
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  3. I think that the frightening situation we find ourselves in is that there are some people in the government of the United States that realize that the longer we wait to go to war with China, the less likely we are to succeed in that war. Because of this I think there are people high up in the intelligence community, and maybe a few in the military, who feel like the best thing to do is to goad China into attacking Taiwan now rather than later so that the United States has an excuse to fight now rather than later when odds of success are much worse. The question is, will China rise to the bait? I think China is more-or-less aware of this strategy and I think they are going to avoid open warfare as long as they can. The question is, when Taiwan openly declares independence will China swallow it until the force imbalance is stronger with all the domestic disappointment that this would incur. Or will they risk going to war when the odds of total victory are not as overwhelming as the Chinese would hope for? The one thing the United States is doing successfully is we are making China uncomfortable. As for the way the various wargames are playing out, I'm pretty sure that China could invade Taiwan successfully in the first weeks of combat. They could set up strong beachheads and probably capture some harbors and airports that would give them a strong land presence on the island; they might even conquer the whole island. The US has a 2-1 advantage in combat aircraft numbers though and the Americans would with airfields in Japan, Guam, the Marianas and a half dozen supercarriers operating, probably eventually achieve air superiority, at which point the U.S. military could effectively protect its supply lines into Taiwan and shut off the Chinese (Though if they operate to close to the mainland they'll be at risk of China's superior missile artillery). Then it becomes a production race to see if China can regain air superiority before the PLA is ejected from Taiwan, something that could happen in a relatively short period of time if the PLA didn't secure the whole island or something that could take a long time if the island was secured and the forces in place fought for every inch of ground tooth and nail. My point is that while wargames might show a Chinese victory (occupation of the island) in the short term, the longer term victory could go either way. But even if China loses, they're not going to give up on Taiwan. They'll lick their wounds and come back two decades later with a strong taste for vengeance.
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