Nicolae Crefelean
Tech Chasm
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Comments by "Nicolae Crefelean" (@kneekoo) on "SpaceX Starship Flight u0026 Super Heavy Stacking Update, New Glenn Wins New NASA Launch Contract!" video.
Historians are supposed to be experts about the past, not the future. I initially thought "NASA historian" was ironic and funny, but then the joke kept dragging to weird levels. 😂
No problem, though, it's ok when people have opinions and are willing to stand by them. It's just that not everyone can be right. And considering how much progress SpaceX has done with Starship, I expect it to see it tested in orbit and then around the Moon in 2022. A test mission to Mars will probably follow in late 2024.
No one else has anything better than Starship, even in its current form, so I don't see how any other rocket would reach Mars before SpaceX. Rocket engineering is not the kind of field that you can easily leapfrog development stages. It takes a lot of money, talent and time - all highly important.
And considering SpaceX will soon make a lot of money with Starlink, that will enable the acceleration of their development, because they have a silly amount of talent just waiting for bigger budgets to get results faster. More money will enable them to easily test more advanced materials and manufacturing techniques, which is something governments can't afford and something that other private companies don't do simply because they sit on their hands and wait for governmental contracts or they lack the vision/talent to execute.
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