Comments by "Nicolae Crefelean" (@kneekoo) on "Jordan Peterson Leaves Audience Speechless on ELON MUSK!" video.

@SpaceTravel1776 It's a psychological disorder (or maybe just idiocy) to think you know better than those having the data required to estimate how far FSD actually is. Most people on this planet have no better clue than them where FSD is, us included. But even when we talk about them exclusively, this technology cannot be estimated like one would do for a task like building a website or painting a house, because FSD has never been done. We can speculate about it, but clearly not in certain terms because we don't know what they know. I turned off my excitement about FSD a few years ago, when Elon said they got stuck in a local maximum and realized that they needed a new approach. That was enough to make it clear that getting stuck while solving an extremely complex problem is more likely than not. And recently they almost started from scratch by removing over 300K lines of code and replacing them with neural networks and end-to-end training. Who's to say this is the final step and no new local maximum can happen? We don't know, and that's the thing - we don't know either way. But we know from Tesla that they used "shadow mode" to determine how good a newer version of their software fares against human driving. We also know that they've collected FSD disengagements so they can catch edge cases to know what kind of situations require improvement or more training. A lot of things happen on roads, but the more cars get out there and use FSD, the faster the learning process occurs. And thousands of new cars do just that every single month - an increasing fleet that contributes to solving a huge task. I have no idea when it will be ready, though I hope that will be soon because less accidents is a good thing.
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