Comments by "Taint ABird" (@taintabird23) on "euronews"
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Leroy Jenkins 2.0 Really? Where is my delusion?
You do know the British Demos is in terminal decline, right?
Of course NI is part of the UK, nobody is disputing that - but it is contest territory, with half of the population tolerating its constitutional position within the UK for now.
The majority of Scots appear to identify as Scottish rather than British. We know that because of the rise of the SNP and the prevalence of Scottish identity even among many Scottish Labour voters.
The 2011 census tells us that there are vast areas of England that identify as English rather than British, and polls since then have shown that English identity is on the increase in England. There is a direct co-relation between the areas that voted for Brexit in 2016 and those areas that identified as English in 2011.
Wales voted to leave. But again that 2011 census tells us that 12% of the population of Wales identifies as English, not Welsh. With most of these English voters in Wales being retirees and fitting the most pro-Brexit demographic, it is fair to say these people brought their politics with them.
When you consider that of 17 + million people who voted to leave the EU, 15.1 million of them were English, and add that to the diminishing overarching Britishness across the union, and then the delusion is that the UK voted to leave 'as one country'. If fact, English insecurities dragged the rest of them out.
The constitutional arrangement is clearly unfit for purpose, and there is a yawning democratic deficit that has no parallel in western democracy that I can think of.
The delusion is on your side, I'm afraid. Leaving the EU is England's wrong answer to the wrong question.
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'Leo, trade talks with the 400m strong eu will be down the queue after talks with the biggest economies in the world and the 2000m strong commonwealth countries'
This is untrue for a number of reasons:
1) The Commonwealth made it clear to the UK in April 2018 that they are not interested in being the UKs Brexit crutch. It is not a trade organisation.
2) The UK is a high end producer. Most of the countries in the Commonwealth are Pacific or Caribbean islands or are in Africa countries and are dirt poor. There's also a lot of black people in these countries that will be looking for visas, Brexit is all about racism. The Commonwealth is not answer to your problems.
3) India, Australia and New Zealand have both said that they are prioritising EU trade deals over deals with the UK - the UK is at the back of the queue. Two countries are already in the EU and are bound by EU law.
4) All of these countries are far away and in international trade distance applies - you trade more with those closer to you because its worth more to you. The value of the UK’s trading relationship with Ireland is higher than the value of UK trade with Italy or Spain, even though the total size of Ireland’s economy is much smaller than Italy’s or Spain’s. You're swapping a four course meal for a packet of crisps.
5) The US is not the answer either as any trade deal with the Americans will be for the benefit of the Americans, not the British. The Americans already pick your Ambassador to Washington and your foreign policy is dictated to a large extent by the US State Department. Your country is vulnerable. It is desperate for a trade deal with a United States ruled by President that wants to Make America Great Again. And you have no trade negotiators.
6) Meanwhile, the Single Market is augmented by preferential trade deals across the world, with countries such as Canada, Japan, MERCOSUR and anothers are pending. The UK has nothing but the safety net of the WTO.
7) The Single Market is worth more the EU than the UK. Failure to understand this has been the single biggest strategic error of Brexit.
Varadkar will be kicked out of office in the future because of his domestic policies and not because of Brexit. When he leaves he will be replaced, but the Ireland's Brexit policy will remain the same. There is consensus that Ireland must stand up for the Belfast Agreement and protect its sovereign national interest.
Enjoy your poverty, and remember you voted for it.
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@eddiel7635 How would Ireland be economically ruined? It will still be in the EU. Certain sectors in Ireland would certainly be damaged, but there is no indication that it would be ruined when it has unfettered access to the SM. Any damage Ireland experiences because of Brexit will be the UKs fault, not the EUs - the UK is the one changing the status quo.
The entire UK economy will not collapse, its internal market is strong and will continue. The overall economy will not function properly though, there will be a flight of capital out of the country, there will be unemployment at a time when personal debt is at its highest in years, increased unemployment, negative price shocks, and political and social unrest. There is zero panic in London because everybody knows that the UK is cannot go for No Deal with the EU because Biden has closed the door on a US-UK trade deal under those circumstances. 46% of your exports are to the EU. There will be a deal, sooner or later. Everybody knows this.
Ever since 2016, Brexiters have been making it up as the go along, pretending they never wanted a deal when in fact they were led to believe they could have any deal they liked because they were so important. When it became apparent that this was not the case, in order to avert humiliation they simply changed the narrative.
Peter Lilly described no deal as 'madness'; Farage said he fancied a Norway-style deal (don't remind him of that now).
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Where to start....
The EU will always stand by its members against outsiders, which is what the UK is now, even though it is still a full member of the EU. It is not Ireland's problem that the UK thought that it was so exceptional that all it had to do was strike a deal with Germany to hold the EU over a barrel.
What a clusterf*ck that turned out to be.
Once the UK (finally) leaves, Brexit will not be over and the EU will continue to have Ireland's back. This is because it is what the small nations of Europe (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Malta, Cyprus, Croatia, Slovenia, Luxembourg) expect from the bloc - that the EU should stand up to threats to the interests of smaller members by the British, the Russians or the United States. The EU is very good at it. That's one of the reasons for the existence of the bloc, not that a Brexiter would understand that.
They will be behind Ireland when the UK returns to seek a deal with the EU in the future. And you will.
The tax issue is another area I am better informed in than you. Taxation is a matter for individual states, and Ireland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Sweden are in alliance against the EUs proposals. In the end there will be a compromise, as there always is in the EU, something the British seem to hate.
Certainly, there has been no drop off in FDI into Ireland since the tax issue emerged, unless you are claiming to know more about the intentions of Intel, Yahoo, Microsoft, Facebook, Google and all the rest. As a Brexiter, you probably do make this claim.
Post-Brexit, Ireland remains ideally placed to eat the UKs lunch as the only English speaking member of the EU, providing a gateway into the European Union for American, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand FDI. Ireland has considerable soft power in the United States, being the closest friend of the White House within the EU and having a considerable Irish-American diaspora whose ancestors escaped famine with a bitterness for the British. It is also the sixth biggest investor into the United States, which impresses the moron in the White House.
Brexiters are bitter little toe-rags, as you demonstrate. You may have no consideration for Ireland, but we will continue to defend our sovereign national interest regarding Brexit. The UK has overplayed its hand, failed to understand how the EU operates and is led by donkeys.
Ireland is a confident country and benefits from consensus about Brexit - something the UK can only dream about - and it knows how to use its sovereignty effectively. Ireland also has the weight and power of 26 other nations behind it.
Enjoy your deal-free Brexit and all that WTO it brings to you. Your trade deal with the US will be blocked by Congress if there is a hard border in Ireland.
Its your remainers I feel sorry for.
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About 13% of the population of the UK was born outside the country. The figure for Ireland is 17%.
Granted, nearly have of these immigrants come from Poland and the UK, but immigrants integrate well here and we have no right-wing anti immigration parties that don't fail to lose their deposit when they run in elections.
The concept of multi-layered identity is part of the Irish national identity now. In the Irish constitution, the definition of the Irish nation includes the notion that you can have more than one identity by including people of Irish heritage as part of the Irish nation: you can be Irish and British, Irish and American, Irish and European, Black, Muslim, Jewish and so on. You don't have that type of civic nationalism in England - its an ethnic nationalism.
There's no mention anywhere of conscription into an EU Army - except in the UK right-wing media. In any case, Ireland has an exemption from the EU Army in the Lisbon Treaty, which is what the Irish people had included as a protocol in the Treaty and voted for in that second referendum that Nigel Farage believes is an example of the Irish being 'made to vote again'.
Ireland voted for its membership of the EEC and later the EU. The Irish people vote on every single treaty change and so we 'own' our membership in a way British people never did.
The Irish people never voted to be part of the United Kingdom in 1801. I won't give you a history lesson, but Ireland experienced real oppression under British rule and we know what real oppression looks like. Its the same in Europe: between the ambitions of Hitler, Franco, Mussolini, Salazar and Stalin, Europeans know what real oppression looks like. Our country is still dealing with the consequences London made in the interests of an establishment which spoke a different language, practiced a different religion, culture and customs than the natives.
English oppression within the EU is merely a product of the English imagination. It would appear that some English concluded that if the English are not ruling the EU, then the EU must be ruling them. Brexit is seem as a very English tantrum.
When you have to shoot your way out of the union you want to leave, perhaps we can compare the Irish independence and with the UK leaving the EU...
You don't get taught much Irish history in the UK. Mores the pity.
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@ Nigel
Yes, but you will not last long...a country that throws an international peace treaty under a bus and walks away from a €39 billion commitment to the EU will be something of a pariah on the international stage.
And you will have to come back. You will find that trading on WTO without trade deals alongside Somalia, South Sudan, East Timor, The Vatican, Serbia, Monaco, Sudan and Western Sahara comes at a cost you cannot bear.
You will come crawling back when the City decides it wants a deal with the EU, the worlds largest trading bloc, on its doorstep.
You will cough up the 39 billion and return to Customs Union and Single Market in order get a quick deal. The humiliation will be complete.
You will have discovered the limitations of independence in a world of interdependence.
You will leave, and you will return. Which part of that do you not understand?
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'try this, the EU is negotiating with the most corrupt, incompetent and duplicitous UK govenment.'
The EU has not begun to negotiate yet. The EU has simply set out its terms, while the UK has done nothing but negotiate with itself. Brexit, as promised, cannot be delivered but the slow learners think they are being betrayed.
'Any inconsistencies can be ascribed to the dichotomy between the UK political elite and the UK people.'
Your problem is your own entitled, privately educated, confident but deeply ignorant elite - not the EU. They are out of touch with many of British, mainly English, citizens. Blaming the EU is simply displacement.
'The UK has slowed the federalisation of the EU and could still veto the next EU budget'
Perhaps, but the UK has overplayed fears of a ferderal Europe in their own Project Fear, as really only the French and Germans want it. The future of the EU is not as a superstate, but as a multi-speed bloc.
'A budget that will be difficult anyway, if the UK leaves without a deal and no agreed payment to the EU.'
The UK contribution to the EU budget is tiny when compared to the EUs GDP. Currently members pay 1% of their GDP into EU coffers, and raising this to a whooping 1.1% will cover the UK contribution.
Let go of this 'they need us more than we need them' rubbish, it is mere hubris.
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@alangardner8596 I understand that it is very important for Brexiters that the UK is seen as 'very important'. The trouble is, internationally, it is not currently seen as 'very serious'. Your post exemplifies that.
The figure from before Brexit was 46% and not 12%. Everybody in the EU is selling less to the UK since the referendum, because of sterling, the up to 20% COVID-19 related collapse in the UK economy last year and because suppliers are seeking new markets away from the UK. Since January, the price of cars is likely to have risen due to increased paperwork required just to export to the UK, making them less affordable. It is quite possible also, though I have no evidence to support it, that the production of cars is down due to COVID restrictions at manufacturing plants.
Where do we see it going? We shall see trade between the UK and the EU continue to decline with many Small and Medium Size Enterprises in the UK going to the wall. In Europe, SMEs will find new markets within the Single Market, filling gaps vacated by the UK. They will do much better by comparison.
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@aib0160 Again, if you had bothered with a plan, if people had voted upon that plan, you would not have had MPs and parties arguing over what type of Brexit you voted for.
The UK will not tear up the agreement, that bluff was called last December. If it were left to the UK and the RoI to resolve the border issue, the UK would merely steam roll over Ireland and the Irish would just have to put up with it, and probably leave the EU or the SM - neither of which the Irish people voted for - and to the detriment of the Irish economy. We know that when Brexiters talk about sovereignty and independence they do not take into account that others value their sovereignty and independence too. As Sajid Javid stated on TV one Sunday morning, 'the tail cannot be allowed to wag the dog'. That's lovely, Sajid, thanks.
The EU is not weaponising the border. The border is an issue the UK never considered and it is a problem for which it has no solution, undermining the 'we hold all the cards' mantra that English nationalists were seduced by. Brexiters never considered that the EU would stand by a small member state in relation to an 'important' country like the UK, failing to understand that the EU is made up of 'small states', and one departing state that does not know it is small. The Irish also wiped the floor diplomatically in Washington, so much so, that British diplomats have been told to 'copy the Irish' in terms of winning friends and influencing people in the United States.
The border issue does not have and never had, anything to do with the free movement of people between these islands. The problem is the movement of goods and the anger Irish people living on the border would have in relation to checks because of a vote held on another island. Now we can see the anger of Unionists in Northern Ireland, Brexit supporters, as borders are being placed in the Irish Sea. We can see the UK is not implementing all it is supposed to, and that Boris's claim that there would be no paperwork is another Boris lie. We can see how the DUP are desperately trying to undermine the Irish Sea checks because their supporters are deserting them, deserting them because they made the strategic error of blindly supporting Brexit even after being sacrificed by the Tories.
But if you're a Brexiter, you blame the EU.
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