Comments by "Taint ABird" (@taintabird23) on "Brexit Could Cause Chaos At The Northern Ireland Border (HBO)" video.
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@ Matthew Shin
Real Irish person here.
Regarding NI, religion is a badge of identity and has been since the Ulster Plantations in the 17th century. In that context, religious practice has little to do with it. However, NI voted to remain in the EU.
May is dependent on the DUP to keep the conservatives in power. The DUP have been against everything in NI for decades, including the GFA, They are facing an imminent Catholic/Irish/Nationalist demographic majority, possibly by 2021 and anything that can keep NI closer to the UK, they will support it.
But the DUP don't represent all Unionists. Many moderate unionists are supportive of EU or CU/SM membership and see all the problems the DUP are creating. It is even said that many DUP representative in NI (as opposed to Westminster) are concerned about NI leaving the EU. This is because NI farmers and communities benefit from EU membership through trade and subsidies, they understand that the open border satisfies many NI Nationalists who are happy to therefore remain in the UK - any change in that will arouse resentment and encourage thoughts of Irish unity.
What the English don't understand is that the open border, the status quo, facilitates improved relations on the island.
For people living on the border, on both sides of it, any border infrastructure will be intolerable. You have people who cross that border everyday to shop, socialise, go to school, go to work, to access their farmland. The border runs through farms, farmyards, villages and in at least one case a church is in the republic while its adjoining graveyard is in Northern Ireland.
Brexiters will tell you that the RoI is trying to grab NI. In fact the opposite is true. While most Irish people would aspire to a united Ireland, the unspoken consensus is that will take place after reconciliation in NI, and that process has not even begun yet. You're talking decades.
The nightmare for the RoI, is an unsettled Nationalist population calling for a border poll. Once this is triggered it needs to be held every seven years. The worst outcome of such a poll for the RoI is a result like Brexit produced in the context of no reconciliation process.
That is where the danger lies: Brexit destabilises NI and makes it the RoI's problem.
No Irish government can put up a hard border in Ireland. When the EU or WTO requires one, the border will have to be put up between the RoI and the EU by the Dublin Government. This is another example of Brexit making problems for the RoI, something the Irish did not vote for.
Finally, the UK has no leadership and Brexit is being promoted by low grade ill-informed politicians who have duped their own people.
History tells us such people use and discard Ireland and its people as it suits them. The levels of ignorance in the UK about Ireland has been truly breathtaking at times.
From your question and your post, I can tell you are not one of those people.
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There is no constitutional account for the fact that both Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain.
This is significant as devolution tells us that there is no longer a British Demos, indeed we know from British Election Studies that identity played a huge part in how people voted: In Wales, 71% of Welsh speakers voted to remain; Welsh speakers who identify primarily as Welsh, 87% voted to remain; in England, those who identified primarily as English voted to leave; Scots who identified mainly as Scottish first voted to remain; in Northern Ireland, most who identified as Irish voted to remain.
I would suggest that there will be constitutional consequences for the UK as a result of Brexit, as English, Welsh and Scottish identities begin to assert themselves.
Some of these tensions may emerge as the UK attempts to feed itself post-Brexit. At present the UK can only produce 60% of its food needs, with 70% of the deficit imported from the EU. WTO rules, the break down of 'just in time' supply chains at channel ports and the time it take to set up trade deals with third countries will be significant. A cheap food policy will destroy the British agricultural sector in 2-3 years.
In short, I think there will be chaos and everything will not be fine - assuming of course there is a hard Brexit in March.
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