Comments by "Taint ABird" (@taintabird23) on "DW News"
channel.
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@ Rural Rebel Tory
Ireland will not put up a hard border. It simply cannot be done, politically or physically. It seems to me that the Irish government and the EU are working on some other arrangement, an imposition on Ireland caused by Brexit, that will protect the EU and prevent a hard border.
Tactically, Dublin knows that “no deal” is only “no deal” for now. The UK must eventually do a trade deal with the EU because of all of that trade you listed with EU countries in your post. No matter what the political and economic fallout, the UK will be back at the table soon. The more chaos at British ports, the shorter the self-imposed mercantile lockout. The suppression of the Impact Assessments indicate that this chaos will be more serious than Brexiters can admit and they don't trust their divided society to accept whats coming to them.
When the UK returns to the negotiating table, they will be handed the WA and a pen.
Ireland has been far more successful in diversifying from the UK than the UK has been in diversifying from Ireland. Today, Ireland remains the UK’s fifth largest export market and as you can see from your list, the UK exports more to Ireland than it does to China with its population of 1.4bn.
Furthermore, the UK runs a large trade surplus with Ireland — in fact, its second-largest trade surplus after the US. Strangling Ireland would hurt UK business much more than the other way around.
What Brexiters don't understand is that the EU is not all about the big countries and what they want. Most of the countries in the EU have smaller economies and even populations than Ireland. They are watching how the EU behaves when one of its smaller members is confronted by a larger bully. Standing up to the UK is the greatest PR coup the EU has had and it will help to strengthen the bloc going forward.
Trading on WTO rules is a primitive form of trade, a mere safety net. No advanced economy depends on it. With India and other emerging economies prioritising their pending trade deals with the EU and the United States engaging in national chauvinism, the UK will not have its choice of trade deals. Other countries will copy the USA and take the opportunity to hit up the UK for a trade deal at time when it is weak.
Any deal the US gives you will see the UK as rule taker. Democrats in the Senate will get enough Republicans of Irish extraction to back blocking the deal and its a Democrat House already.
Meanwhile, the UK will be in turmoil, politically, socially, economically and probably constitutionally going forward. While the UK is deeply divided over Brexit, there is consensus in Ireland and across the EU in relation to the UK leaving.
The Troubles will erupt again in Northern Ireland as Brexit has removed all the ambiguities that the Belfast Agreement put in place. Peace was possible because of those ambiguities. The first bomb exploded on the border in Fermanagh this week.
By the way, can you think of any promises Brexiters made that actually came to pass?
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