Comments by "Taint ABird" (@taintabird23) on "Ahern on Brexit: Tories 'upped the ante' over future of Good Friday deal | DW English" video.
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@ Abominable Snowman: Brexit is a game changer. The UK is a odd political entity, but there has been no demos there in recent years - devolution has shown us the way the wind is blowing.
The Scots have a well formed sense of national identity and have none of the issues the English have with the EU. The final deal with the EU will set the tone of the Scottish response. It seems to me that when the time is right the Scots will leave the UK and join the EU, as the idea that the Scots cannot have what they want because there are more English voters will prove to be untenable in the long term. Scotland is a nation.
Northern Ireland is unlike the rest of the UK and its nationalist population is now close to be being a majority. 56% of people in NI voted to remain because they understand the social, economic and political consequences on the island of Ireland as a whole - not because they want a united Ireland. While Brexit is incredibly divisive in NI, once the subsidies stop rolling in and the full economic impact becomes obvious it is likely that unity will become attractive.
Wales should be naturally pro-EU, but its sense of nationalism is less developed that in Scotland. With a large number of English retirees living in Wales, one has to wonder how solid the Welsh vote to leave is. Interestingly, the Welsh speakers tended to vote to remain - they seem to feel their culture is secure in the EU. Again, once the subsidies to the Hill farmers, and the passing trade of Irish trucks cease, we will see how much commitment there is to following the English in the long term.
And who is to say the English will not be the first to seek independence from the UK?
The break up of the UK is inevitable, its just a matter of time.
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'you have to understand most nationalist dont want to be part of a banana republic like the irish republic :)'
I don't agree that Ireland is a banana republic, but I was assuming that was a given that any United Ireland would be a new, agreed one: new flag, anthem, perhaps new institutions, new constitutional arrangements and a new way of doing things. Equally, people in NI would have to learn to work increasingly in the private sector - especially as Brexit England will in all likelihood seek ways of reducing its taxpayers money going to the periphery of the UK. They will have to learn the practice of 'normal politics' which exists in the Republic, with none of the sectarian bullshit. Southerners would have to get used to the possibility of Unionists frequently holding the balance of power. Who knows...
However, your argument is based on the premise that there are not external factors that will change things - in other words, everything will stay the same. I contend that there are external factors which will begin to become apparent only after Brexit that will sooner or later result in a United Ireland: I suspect these changes will be economic, political and/or constitutional.
We'll see, I suppose.
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@ Charlie
No it is not.
Some Scots hate the English, who utterly dominate them. Who else do they hate? Nobody. Irish and English friends in Scotland have told me stories about the hostility some Scots have for the English, and both have found it shocking. It is not something you would ever see in Ireland, not since it took its place among the nations of the world, although some English I find on this media insist I that I hate them because the are English - or more accurately, because I am Irish.
The English also insist on speaking on behalf of the various Celtic nations, claim to know what is best for them - your statement that the Scots 'wrapping themselves up in an EU blanket won't make them feel any better' indicates that tradition is still alive in you. In my opinion, it also points to your insecurity - the English still need the Celtic nations in order to feel secure in their identity.
This will change over time. English nationalism is still in at nascent stage, and it is relatively incoherent. It make sense to me that you should be confident as the world is full of Englishness: football, rugby, cricket, the English language, Common law etc. English culture is everywhere and is easily identifiable, a product of an imperialism that was a vehicle for English nationalism for hundreds of years. And yet Brexiters still feel that the EU threatens their identity. This is because the post-Imperial English are still trying to find their place in the world.
Irish identity and culture has thrived and its nationalism has matured since joining the EU, in a large measure because it is not dominated by England to the same extend anymore. Irish people are also more confident than they used to be, as we have an equal voice in the EU, unlike the experience of the Union Ireland left in 1922. In short, membership of the EU has done more for Irish identity than independent isolation did previously. The Scots understand this, and the English fear it.
This brings me back to a point I've made before. The real problem the English have with the EU is the equality that it offers. The English don't feel equal to anyone, they feel they are exceptional because of what they achieved in the past and this is a reliable indicator of can be achieved in the future. They want exceptions to be made for them as they are particularly special. You can see it clearly in the Brexit 'negotiation strategy' of the UK government, UKIP and the like.
You are right, Brexit is the least of the EUs problems, and I think that overlooking that has been a strategic error of the exit strategy. 'They need us more than we need them' has proven to be an unreliable hook to hang the Brexit strategy on.
British Eurosceptics have been predicting the end of the EU since they joined in 1973. It won't happen, it will merely continue to evolve.
Can the same be said for the UK? That remains to be seen.
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@ Charlie
You're half right with the facts and half right with the analysis.
Firstly, the argument for the Scottish opposition to Brexit is an odd one. In 1973 80% of Irish exports went to the UK, joining the EU has reduced that figure to 13.5% over all (granted, the majority of Irish agri-products still go there). One of the arguments for Scotland being independent but a member of the EU is that it would over time allow the Scots a greater measure of economic independence from the England. While some Scots that I know surprised me by voting for Brexit, they did so thinking it would make Scottish independence easier to achieve, while the overwhelming support to remain in the EU in 2016 suggests that they are quite comfortable with EU membership and lack none of the identity issues of the plague the English. You argument for the dependence of Scotland on the UK single market does not take into account the dependence of the Scots for EU funding and subsidies, particularly for the farming sector.
Secondly, your analysis of the Irish 'Celtic Tiger' economy needs work. The Celtic Tiger expired, ceased to be, joined the crowd invisible in 2008 - nobody uses the term for the current economic growth. While it is true that 26% GDP growth rates are a result of the distortion of US FDI companies filtering their profits through Ireland, it remains the case the the Irish economy is in rude good health by any standard: in 2017 GDP grew by 7% - strip out the Corporation tax and the figure is 4%, the highest in the Eurozone, and much higher than that of the UK. Incidentally, the UK is leaving the EU with a debt to GDP ratio that is higher than that of Ireland and with a lower GDP per capita. Indeed, NI has an average household income that is 50% lower than that of the republic as it stands. The economic powerhouse on the island of Ireland has historically been Belfast, but it has been Dublin for the past two decades or more. The Republic must be doing something right, as NI is seeking to lower its Corporate Tax to match that of the Republic in order to benefit from those profits generated elsewhere.
Thirdly, your simplistic view of the level of economic activity in the Republic is as a result of hanging too much on multi-national FDI. For example, Ireland is the 10th biggest economic investor in the US, where Irish multinationals employ over 100,000 people; its the 6th biggest beef exporter in the world; its the world leader in aircraft leasing. Ireland has an open economy.
Finally, your analysis of Irish emigration needs updating - those who left during the crash are returning in large numbers as the economy approaches full employment. The Irish workforce is highly mobile, even during the Celtic Tiger period young people left to broaden their minds by choice, while economic emigrants from the 1980s returned in their tens of thousands at the same time. Most who chose to emigrate today are those who work in the public sector jobs market, particularly health professionals and educators - tight controls on public spending by the current government means more money and experience can be found abroad. They are travelling in smaller numbers to the UK and US than previously, the Middle East and Australia seem to be more alluring these days. And British people emigrate to Ireland too - just over 100,000 according the 2016 census. You will find English accents in every economic sector in the Republic, from retail to company CEOs, from the trades to public services.
There a lot of talk about a united Ireland as the moment - too much talk in my view - and most of it in the media. It leads to insecurity among Unionists in NI and the rehashing of the old comfort blanket that the Republic could not afford unity. However,, this argument seems less plausible now than it did in the past.
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@ Charlie,
Again, you're kind of all over the place here. Allow me to elaborate:
There may be no financial independence when you throw your lot in with the Eurozone but if an independent Scotland was to peg its new currency to Sterling, it would be in an even more dependent position. On balance though, the membership of the Single Market and Customs Union would open up huge opportunities for an independent Scottish economy. But EU membership is not all about economics for the Scots, I suspect. Its also about having an equal voice with its European neighbours as a sovereign nation, something that will enhance their sense of national identity and confidence.
Tax policy remains the competence of member states, and at present ten EU states oppose the harmonisation proposal including at least two of the founder members of the EU. Ireland's policy is to wait until the OECD rules on subject and then all countries will jump together...in the meantime, Ireland has its veto.
Many countries have opt outs on various EU decisions, including the EU army. The UK has availed of more opt-outs than any other member country, as you know, and Ireland secured its opt-out in that renegotiated treaty passed in the second Lisbon referendum - the one which Brexiters like to claim Ireland was 'made' take again by the EU. Personally, I would support Irish participation in an EU Army but I would be in a minority in my country.
Regarding Scotland's debt, it would have to get its act together in order to join the EU, but it would have less to do than other past accession applicants who are now members. Sometimes the desire to be independent trumps the short term pain of austerity and a lower standard of living: it was such in Ireland a century ago following independence and hard-core Brexiters will tell you the same in relation to their ambitions.
There are many differences between Scottish and English nationalism, but my statement was with regard to identity: the English-outside-London are particularly afflicted by it. However, Scottish and English nationalisms are indeed different: English nationalism and identity is binary, it cannot accept the invitation to adopt an EU identity along with its own national identity. The English cannot accept they are nation themselves at all - they cannot view themselves as equal to other nations - they are exceptional because of their history - British history - as Britishness in the United Kingdom was the main conduit of English nationalism in the past.
This is why there is no devolved government for England, the English can't seem to accept they need it and that they are equal to the Scots, Welsh and the Northern Irish. The English reaction to the concept of an EU identity is to invent an oppressor in the EU instead - creating the 'Them and Us' required by any nationalism; Nobody is oppressing the English, certainly not the EU, but Breixters - and most of them are English - think otherwise. 62% of Scots appear to understand that shared EU identity concept and feel no threat by it, alongside 56% of Northern Irish. In response, the English are turning to Empire 2.0 - the Commonwealth - where it will feel more comfortable. Brexit is a English Nationalist Mental Breakdown.
In the event of unification in Ireland, there would be short-term pain but long term gain and several economic studies support this view. Do I take it you think only the English have the stomach to suffer economically in the national cause? of course there would be concern about it, but I can guarantee you it will be a different issue that will dominate discussion in the Republic: reconciliation. The nightmare scenario would be, say, a 52% majority in NI in favour of unification without reconciliation first.
'The UK is a large net contributor to the EU, it receives no net funding from the EU at all. And as I have noted previously, Scotland receives a large fiscal transfer from the UK. Any dependence is with the UK.'
Tell that to the farmers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as they don't feel reassured. EU subsidies kept many if not most UK farmers viable - especially in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - helping to maintain rural communities and provide food security. After Brexit, the UK is intending to pursue a cheap food policy from abroad which will destroy this. Today, Ireland elected a Northern Ireland Unionist farmer, a former member of the Northern Irish Farmers Union, to the Irish Senate, the parliamentary upper house, in order to provide some influence for NI farmers in a parliament that will continue to deal with the EU.
The UK may be a net contributor to Brussels, but there is no evidence that it intends to distribute its largess for the benefit of British farmers - or, famously, the NHS either.
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