Comments by "M Shastri" (@libshastra) on "Ajit Pawar’s rebellion is great news for BJP but no time to burst crackers yet" video.

  1. This is a misreading of the the political situation. It mixes a party's stated ideology for organizational issues and ambitions in these parties. Sena and NCP's internal feud under MVA was primarily driven by Pawar's ambition to one up the Thackerays. Ideologically both Sena and NCP are pretty much the same i.e. Marathi Nationalism (everything else is more like a topping on a ice cream). Besides the die has been cast for Shinde and Ajit Pawar, there's no going back for them, so they will stick together and likely merge. Besides the cadres from both parties are driven by caste but rather by mutual interests i.e. making money (most of them run businesses). Besides Baramati has a chance of becoming the next Amethi. So keep an eye on Baramati.
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  2. In the SP, Akhilesh is the only one who has worked hard. Unlike Ajit Pawar and NCP, everyone else in the SP simply rely on their caste + muslim identity to get votes. That says a lot about SP.
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  3. @@Rutwik473 because Sena and NCP goes after the same set of Voters - Marathas. Please Maharashtra has a lot of smaller parties that cut into a lot of votes. MNS cut into Sena vote and gave Congress a lead in 2009.
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  4. Assembly is always a toss up. Vote cutting/splitting tactics through smaller parties are pretty common in Maharashtra. 1% in Lok Sabha translates to 5-10% in assembly, enough for smaller parties to wreck havoc into electoral calculations.
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