Comments by "k98killer" (@k98killer) on "Mark Moss" channel.

  1. I love this. You've pulled together all the disparate things that have been bouncing around in my head for months into a cohesive and convincing exposition. Thank you, Mark.
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  2. Mark et al. have been on point. Really satisfying to see a channel grow like this over the last several years. Top notch. Also, if you want help moderating to remove the impersonators/scammers, I volunteer.
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  3. It's really sad that you lost it all in a conveniently timed boating accident in your backyard pool. Tragic, really. A damn shame.
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  4. The vast majority of covid relief funds went into corporate coffers.
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  5. Do not accept the mark of the Fed.
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  6. For those who are technically inclined, it is worthwhile to test new setups with small amounts: make sure that you can send to and from the multi-sig wallet before committing large parts of your hodl.
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  7. To be fair, though the debt snowball strategy does not optimize for accruing less interest cost over all, it does have two things going for it: 1) when the smallest debt is paid off, the debt maintenance payments for it cease, allowing the debtor to roll those payments into paying off the next debt; 2) the psychological effect of getting that small win at the outset helps maintain the resolve to complete the mission.
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  8. It depends entirely upon the Cantillon effect: what kind of credit will be expanded; who will benefit from it; and what will they demand with their purchasing power. If they print a quadrillion dollars and park it on the moon, but no money or credit enters the real economy to fund consumption, then we would likely experience deflation. If they print just enough to keep the global monetary system from imploding, and it is enough to get the banks to create more eurodollars to fund global production without increasing consumption demand, we might actually see our lives improve a bit. But the current trajectory is something like the Bronze Age collapse, where the "sea people" knock down one civilization after the other, and only the mightiest empire is left standing just long enough to collapse from losing all its trading partners.
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  9. Decentralization is more resilient than centralization. Centralization is more efficient than decentralization when the centralized system is competent. Central planners have no meaningful feedback mechanism to select for competence. Perhaps if the feedback mechanism itself was enforced by a decentralized system, then maybe we could afford to trade some resilience for efficiency. But currently, I have no confidence in central planners to exhibit any amount of competence.
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  10. Even during the gold standard, people still regularly held assets instead of gold. The Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises describes this in his analysis of the varying levels of demand for money and money substitutes.
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  11. The only way they could enforce that kind of control with a CBDC is to have all of the grocery stores supply all of their inventory data. Ultimately, it is unenforceable without huge enforcement efforts.
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  12. Smiling from ear to ear listening to this malarkey
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  13. For those who want to short it, just be aware of the high carry costs for maintaining a short position. It really does not look like there will be much profit to be had during this slow grind downward.
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  14. All you think about is accumulate more ETH, eh? So never a thought about the shady 60% premine, frequent blockchain rollbacks invalidating the core principle of immutability, or perhaps the size of the blockchain being so large that you can't run your own node at home? Ethereans are deluded if they seriously believe that Eth will somehow become a stronger, sounder money than Bitcoin.
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  15. Fresh perspective. This particular interview of someone with that perspective seems unique to this channel -- I do not think I've heard anyone else articulate this point of view. I think it has merit, though there appear to be some short-term deflationary issues coming to bear in the global economy with continuous supply chain issues and Chinese corporate bond defaults. The issue may be that the dollar is trying to be both exogenous and endogenous money, blurring all the lines that would allow one to easily distinguish discrete effects.
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  16. This is one of the best videos from this channel this year. Very well spoken and well organized.
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  17. I appreciate the candid disclaimer. It is a display of integrity imo. On the topic of markets going wild, I had a dream after the pandemic began that I was standing on some rubble that used to be a house and watching wild financial market swings on my phone.
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  18. Still ok to resent the debt slavery system just as long as that resentment does not stop you from opting out.
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  19. I first heard excerpts from that SBF interview on a CoffeeZilla video.
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  20. The proper name of the "butterfly effect" is Chaos Theory, and it is essentially the study of stochastic systems. The point of Chaos Theory is that the end result from a minor perturbation in starting conditions cannot be predicted and can normally be understood only in hindsight.
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  21. "Massive people protesting" made me think of obese people blocking the roads with their mobility scooters lol
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  22. I hate when technical issues interfere with my work. I know that frustration all too well. Glad you were able to power through it and salvage the situation.
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  23. Well, to be fair, we do not have concentration camps in the US. The ChiNazis are literally sterilizing and harvesting hair and organs from minority populations that they've rounded up. The mechanism of the state seizing the means of production is also different: instead of bloody revolution, the monetary authorities have decided to simply encumber everything in debt with a debt-based currency system. The Fed is keeping the zombie companies alive long enough to outlast and buy up any competition so that eventually only the companies beholden to the central bankers will be left standing. However, I do not think the Fed will actually leave this decade alive -- it is rather likely imo that fractional reserve debt-backed currency is about to die.
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  24. I lost all my alleged non-imaginary wealth in an alleged imaginary boating accident, allegedly.
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  25. I would love for something like this in my state.
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  26. I've invested in expandable batons to sell to people who want to beat inflation.
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  27. Mesh networking is the future of communication imo. The greatest flaw with the Internet Protocol is the hierarchical nature of number assignment flowing from one central authority. I'm working on something that can replace that model, but the math is convoluted and difficult.
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  28. Small update 02/26: Trudolf has ended the so-called emergency, but the ex post facto bill of attainder effects were not rolled back.
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  29. Remember, they say that they are targeting an average CPI of 2.5%. If they want to retain any credibility, they'll have to keep rates higher for longer so that even the funny CPI numbers can bring that average down below 2.5% before they pivot. However, if they want to avoid bankruptcy, they either need to lower rates or raise capital in Q2.
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  30. Technically, Keynes said to apply contractionary policies during booms. Keynesians conveniently forget that part.
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  31.  @Alex-qn3me  The petro dollar has never been as significant as the aircraft carrier dollar.
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  32. The rise of gold- and silver-backed tokens along with decentralized finance will be the nail in the Federal Reserve Note's coffin.
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  33. Just dropping a little comment here to say that I appreciate your work here, Mark. You have pursued this project with an uncommon level of integrity. Regarding the topic of the video, I tend to agree with the thesis that fiat currencies will continue to destabilize, but I do hope that we can continue to enjoy a period of relative reprieve for at least a little bit longer. The alternatives to fiat are not yet well enough developed to bear the burden of securing and enabling the world's commerce, and I worry that too much monetary chaos too quickly may lead to something much worse than a monetary regime change.
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  34. Holy shit.
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  35.  @renaissanceman5847  If decentralized networks can exist at the application layer, it stands to reason that one can be built at the network layer. It is not an easy task, but I think I will have a workable system once I iron out the mathematics (my calculus is a bit rusty; if you know how to do trilateration in 4 dimensions using minimum squared error or minimum mean squared error, lmk).
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  36. A global liquidity cycle video is an excellent idea.
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  37.  @davidraborn3654  I go hunting, but I'm not a Hunter.
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  38. He likely won't put too many more of these on his channel in the future since this was just to introduce us to his iHeartRadio show. Shouldn't be too difficult to find his show on podcast platforms.
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  39. Imo it does not make too much sense to position a portfolio for black swan events other than buying some volatility hedges when they are cheap. Having a plan to execute during times of volatility is probably the better strategy.
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  40. Very few new monetary systems stick for very long.
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  41. I always figured that the best buying opportunity would be when nobody can afford to invest.
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  42. Editor missed the queue to play the video from the Canadian Parliament 16:35.
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  43. There's an argument that they need to raise the yield curve above inflation expectations at each maturity. Since CPI is a lagging indicator, it can be easily argued that the proper over night rate should be closer to the month-over-month CPI change than the yearly CPI change. My guess from the numbers I've seen is that they will enter America into the current global recession, but they won't be able to get CPI below 5% due to rents lagging the rest of the housing market and providing persistent upwards pressure for at least another year.
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  44.  @nickcarducci3413  ever heard the saying that "the pen is mightier than the sword"?
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  45. The natural state of humanity is the gift economy.
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  46. Things are the way they are because Fed bureaucracy selects for obedience and groupthink instead of competence. This is why Joseph Wang quit working there.
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  47. Also, Eth is not an innovation of BTC's network. Bitcoin uses the unspent transaction output (UTXO) model. Ethereum uses the account/balance model. If any of these smart chains is an innovation on a core Bitcoin technology, it would be Cardano with its extended UTXO and Beam with its confidential DeFi system using MimbleWimble UTXOs.
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  48.  @jo3agle  my contention is that Ethereum is neither an innovation on Bitcoin nor a project setup for sustainable, long term growth. In the short term, anything can happen; in the long term, markets are weighing machines.
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  49. My friend said that the "awakened lions" thing is a bit corny, but everyone likes corn because it is tasty lol
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  50. That transition though. I was listening to it like a podcast and thought "wtf was that". Then I turned on the screen, rewound a bit, and saw it was exactly what it sounded like. Kind of perfect.
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  51. You have gotten pretty good at making these presentations.
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  52. Hasn't Harry Dent been a perma bear, predicting stock market crashes nonstop?
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  53. Mark, I really like your videos and the increasing level of quality. You've got a good formula figured out here. Just wanted to give some constructive feedback on a recent zoom meeting: it was too late in the evening -- everyone's caffeine had worn out, making it a sleepy event; it went on a bit too long; and the sales pitch graphics need improvement (I don't begrudge a sales pitch, but the graphics were like what someone would turn in to a teacher trying to skate by with a C grade imo and fell short of the preceding presentation). In hindsight, it was an almost comical sitcom-style scenario, but I do not think that is what you want for those meetings. Earlier time or more coffee; graphics ought to progressively improve throughout to keep attention. If it was a challenge to make sales despite the graphics, it would be interesting to get your observations on the process; else, hopefully this feedback helps with future efforts.
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  54. Wow. The estimates I made from their balance sheet publications was just $80-100B annual loss, but I guess I forgot to include future rate hikes in that projection.
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  55. Quick feedback: I first watched the HF video, then saw this one; in the future, I think you two should record the two segments and then make brief segues for the end of each video pointing to the other which plays after a short transition but before the send-off music. I imagine that there is already a lot of overlap between your audiences, but this could still drive more traffic to each channel rather than relying on happenstance for the viewers of one to find the other.
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  56. It will be obvious in a couple of years.
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  57. Scam Bankster-Fraud lost the title of New JP Morgan to CZ. What an embarrassment.
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  58. The brief outro pointing to video cards was a good decision for getting new viewers to check out the backlog.
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  59. CPI month-over-month number was slightly negative, so proces in aggregate supposedly did come down a fraction of a basis point.
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  60. I think the pain is yet to come because the equity markets are still largely hedged, and hedged markets don't crash -- they slowly grind down instead. Lots of people have seen their puts expire worthless while their positions took 20% hair cuts. My guess is that we won't reach the bottom until everyone has given up and capitulated, and my expectation is that we are far from that. However, if the debt market implodes, and the Fed and other central banks resume using the money bazooka, we'll likely first see Bitcoin and other cryptos go up as a forward indicator of liquidity which would then make its way into stocks.
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  61. Technically, for that one month, the CPI basket did decline by a small fraction of a percent from the previous month. Insofar as CPI is an accurate measure of inflation, then there was 0% inflation for that specific month. The implication that inflation was fixed and over, however, was false, so it was more a lie by contextual structure than anything else.
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  62. There's a decent argument that everything in the dollar system is simply a money substitute.
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  63. Hence the old maxim: not your keys, not your coins. On the other hand, I have a friend who has lost probably dozens of Bitcoins because his toddlers got into a box in his closet and ate his paper wallets back when Bitcoin wasn't worth very much. With the price appreciation, those are some very expensive childhoods.
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  64. Weimar prices were in marks, not dollars.
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  65. I believe Romania experienced the worst hyperinflation in history, but it might have been eclipsed by Lebanon over the past year.
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  66. Global Financial Crisis
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  67.  @1MarkMoss  thanks for making all these videos. This channel is an invaluable resource.
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  68.  @spechund7109  what I described is not Keynesian economics; it is Austrian economics.
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  69.  @spechund7109  the fact remains that my analysis is fundamentally correct. Ludwig von Mises concretely refuted the quantity theory of money in the second part of his book, The Theory of Money and Credit. What matters is not merely a change in the quantity of money but the change in subjective value people place on it as a result of the distributional effects. The bankers can create any amount of monetary units they like in their spreadsheets, but it only matters in how its use and distribution affect the subjective values of economic actors.
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  70.  @spechund7109  have you read it and found a logical flaw, or are you simply dismissing it out of ignorance? And what do you mean by "you people"?
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  71.  @spechund7109  I am not one of those. You make too many assumptions. I am a software engineer who reads and thinks a lot. It was obvious to me in 2020 that CPI would explode, and it was obvious that the "transitive" narrative was nonsense, but it was due to the specific policies creating a bullwhip effect and rising geopolitical tensions/disruptions that really exacerbated things. The M2 growth likely would have had a milder affect on consumer prices if global commerce continued without government interference and lockdowns. If you doubt the bullwhip effect, just look at retail inventory numbers.
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  72.  @spechund7109  the "law of gravity" was replaced with the theory called General Relativity. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Economics is not a science, which is good for you since you are no scientist. If you really think that Ludwig von Mises is not part of the Austrian school of economics, you might need to spend more time reading and less time embarrassing yourself online.
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  73. A negative nominal interest rate is just nominal demurrage (deposit custody fee) for the most trusted/central/"credit-worthy" counterparty. It is possible for that to be a real yield during deflation.
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  74. Thought experiment: if a global currency system can expand and contract with the population to maintain a stable per-capita currency supply, we would have an elastic currency system that is still a fair and neutral price measurement tool. As the population expands, greater economies of scale are achieved, increasing the per-capita productivity in an exponential way while the currency supply inflates only linearly, so prices would naturally decline while liquidity simultaneously increased. If the population was to decline for some reason, then the exact opposite would occur: the excess liquidity would dry up at the same time that economies of scale are lost, causing prices to rise during a deflationary contraction. If you think about it, these are the exact correct things to do in the scenario and send the exactly correct price signals for the scenarios: in the first, we on average get wealthier, so you can get more goods and services in exchange for less of your savings and labor; in the latter, we on average get poorer, so you get less for more.
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  75.  @keithbrandson6293  No, I specifically meant that new monetary systems very rarely last for very long. If you look at the history of monetary systems, you'll see that most of them last a few years before being replaced. The notable exceptions are commodity currencies, which tend to last long-term as they are an emergent system that naturally arises, and the currencies of major empires, which tend to last for a few hundred years before structural problems with the empire cause a degradation of trust. The Ithaca Hour, for example, had a very short period of widespread use, and it fell apart after its founder moved out of NY. In Austria during the Great Depression, a few towns experimented with paying public servants with expiring scrip, which worked only well enough that they kept tinkering with it until the monetary/economic system restabilized.
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  76. Everything you've ever learned is wrong, but some of it is useful.
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  77. The majority of cryptos are securities, yes, but there are still some digital commodity cryptos besides Bitcoin. Monero and Litecoin come to mind, though they will lose vs BTC in the long run.
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  78. Global Financial Crisis, not "great financial crash". The GFC led to the so-called "Great Recession".
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  79. USD is down 33%* against homes. 1/1.5 = 0.67.
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  80. Vice Piñacolada Hairless will never let this happen.
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  81. But only pro-BLM riots are immune to the sickness. Nobody wants to get sick...
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  82. Solid video and good analysis. Very approachable summary to some nuanced issues. I wonder if it is time to re-examine the Fed's accumulated losses now that they are well in excess of twice their capital and represent a greater than 2% impairment on their liabilities. What do you think?
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  83. Idk about doing that this time. The yen carry trade still has another 60% to unwind.
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  84. Iirc the latest number for thr Swiss dollar swap line was something like $12B.
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  85. It is somewhat disingenuous to just leave it at "discontinued' as if the M1 and M2 metrics are no longer measured. In reality, they switched definitions going back to May 2020, screwing up the M1 chart, and then decreased the measurement/reporting frequency from weekly to just monthly. The new series are M1SL and M2SL.
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  86. Both formats are fine. The digital whiteboard style is rarer and more distinguishing imo, but ultimately the choice should be made based upon how the format affects productivity and viewership. If you have creative ideas for editing non-whiteboard videos, I suggest exploring those before deciding. And if producing videos in both formats appeal to you and neither format has any obvious advantage, then just go with the flow -- as the pep8 Python style guide says, a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.
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  87. My understanding of that period of history is that the wildcat banks printed up banknotes to buy US war debt to fund the highly unpopular War of 1812, and that was one of the main reasons that the banks were unstable.
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  88. The Fed is probably going to raise rates by the end of the year. They are dropping hints, e.g. Yellen the other day. Eventually, they'll stop walking back their statements so quickly -- it's incrementalism -- they are trying to condition people to expect rate hikes without telling them they are hiking rates.
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  89. Technically, the interest rate is not the price of money. The history of hyperinflations proves this: as the supply of something tends toward infinity, the price tends to zero; but during hyperinflation, while the supply of currency tends toward infinity, interest rates skyrocket rather than fall; thus, interest is not the price of money.
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  90. Why is Nevada King being marketed so hard right now? Price action looks like some whale trying to unload shares into social media hype, or perhaps it is just an attempt to get the junior buyout narrative into the collective unconscious. At any rate, if this was an undisclosed sponsorship, Mark could get into a lot of trouble.
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  91. Burying the link in the description probably does not count as clear enough, but the SEC is pretty toothless these days, so I guess the only people who have to worry are those who do not read the disclaimer. https://go.1markmoss.com/disclaimer "MMG has been compensated and its employees and affiliates may own stock that they have purchased in the open market either prior, during, or after the release of the companies [sic] profile which is an inherent conflict of interest in MMG statements and opinions and such statements and opinions cannot be considered independent." Policy is that they won't sell until 4 weeks after promotion of the stock ends. Idk about other youtubers shilling the company.
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  92. The GDP growth explosion also corresponded to the opening of a post-war, global oil trade.
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  93. The interest rate is not the price of money. If it was, then it would approach 0% during high/hyperinflation since the price of something is inversely proportional to its abundance. History has shown that does not happen, therefore interest is not the price of money.
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  94. Most beef is already from clones.
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  95. Technically, ancient Mesopotamia had banking systems and credit based money. The Code of Hammurabi explicitly regulates banks.
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  96. There's also the fact of the GSM threatening crop growth and destabilizing the climate. It's worth noting that most cattle pastures are unsuitable for growing human-edible plants, so it is actually more efficient to grow meat in those places.
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  97. Damn, lots of bot-vs-bot action in these comments.
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  98. @Proud81Mama dreams tend to be symbolic, though occasionally specific images leak into dreams from our future experiences (or perhaps they leak from the dreams into future reality; not sure which is the weirder model).
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  99. 2019 was quantitative tightening, not tapering. Tapering was where the rate of QE/asset purchases decreased.
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  100. Quantum computers will eventually break all cryptocurrencies that use an elliptic curve. So this Mark of the Fed system is doomed to eventually fail. The only thing that can't be hacked in a cashless world is real money, i.e. gold and silver.
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  101. M2 velocity has been dropping for decades. Our currency system has too many structural defects to solve with infinite QE. All that is necessary for price inflation is for an increased scarcity of real resources to cause the velocity to increase -- in the Weimar Republic, no amount of printed money was ever enough because real resources dried up -- a country cannot print for itself a real economy. The grand solar minimum has already begun wiping out crops across the world; covid-1984 has disrupted supply chains; and the draconian lockdowns have created a dearth of services. We are on the simultaneous brinks of a currency/sovereign debt crisis, a civil war, and a world war. Prepare your brokerage accounts for Fed manipulation, sure, but do not discount the possibility of total societal collapse, at which point maybe you'd rather have a year supply of food, gardening tools, and a gun instead of stocks and ETFs. I'll hodl my stocks in case the world doesn't end, but only because I'm pretty much ready to rebuild society from the ashes.
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  102. I literally just finished spec'ing out a currency system for distributed issuance of credit yesterday as the base for a crypto system. Trust networks with automatic responsibility scores are essential.
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  103. I think that FTX took themselves out; CZ just helped them get it over with.
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  104. Question: if the dollar system gets so screwed up that the big banks subject depositors to a bail-in, what happens to credit union members?
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  105. Wealth is not conserved. It is often destroyed, such as in war or due to bad management of resources by a monopoly. It is often created, such as when new businesses are created to fill an untouched market niche. Sometimes, it is simply an illusion and didn't exist in the first place, such as digits on a screen -- "pixie dust" as the investment bankers say -- the Bezzle. The 2008 GFC had elements of wealth transfer, wealth destruction, and disillusionment.
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  106. Question: do deposits count as regulatory capital in the US under current Federal Reserve regulations? According to what I've read in the Federal Register, Tier 1 regulatory capital includes bank equity (explicitly common equity and in some instances preferred) and instruments subordinated to subordinated debt. Tier 2 includes bank reserves and deposits held at Federal Reserve Banks. The question is whether or not deposits in commercial banks count as instruments subordinated to subordinated debt.
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  107. The Lightning Network will likely be a good fit for AI agents in conjunction with FediMint, but LN by itself likely cannot scale fast enough.
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  108. Just don't put your deposits in the big banksters' pockets. Credit unions all the way, yo.
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  109. Imo the Republic of Kekistan (i.e. the Internet) will be the new global hegemon, and Bitcoin will be the reserve asset of choice. It remains to be seen whether it will be the reserve currency. My guess is that there will be systems built on top of Bitcoin, Lightning Network, RGB Protocol, and the Liquid side chain using these underlying systems for settlement, since they will run into scalability issues eventually due to the requirement to use the Bitcoin blockchain to some degree.
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  110. Jeff Snider says that the fall of the yen is due primarily to Japanese bank exposure to dollar denominated loans in China. He says that the Japanese banks are basically regional eurodollar distributors, so they are selling off yen assets to get enough dollar assets to maintain their balance sheets as China implodes.
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  111. GFC = Global Financial Crisis, not "great financial crash"
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  112. Christine: you gotta think about imaginary outcomes. If I hadn't gotten us into this mess, the thing that didn't happen would have happened. Please don't Sri Lanka me.
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  113. Could easily be the artificial lighting in his studio, but it is good advice nonetheless.
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  114. M2 weekly series was discontinued. M2 is still being reported monthly via the M2SL series.
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  115. The M1 series is a broken series where the definition changes in May 2020 (when savings deposits were moved from M2 to M1), so it is utterly useless as a metric for time based comparisons. M2 definition remains unchanged and can be used for making comparisons. With the perspective provided by Bitcoin, it is pretty ridiculous that the money supply has to be measured and estimated rather than being provable.
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  116.  @stephencuskley5251  The Bible did not prophesy the end of a fiat currency regime or a typical generational turning. The idea that Biblical prophesy can be applied to any given time is ludicrous. Christians have been claiming to be victims and seeing the signs of the End of Days (TM) for over a thousand years. The balance of probability is that y'all are still wrong.
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  117. That intro really caught me off guard. Abrupt transition but not in an unlikeable way. Interesting.
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  118. Vegetable oils are not automatically unhealthy. Hydrogenated oils are, but natural vegetable oils are very varied in their healthiness.
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  119. All these years later, and Gerald still hasn't fixed his microphone.
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  120. Other than the few things I nitpick, these presentations are pretty good. The main issue is that the financial system is convoluted and resistant to being understood -- almost everyone who says "I get it, this is the answer" finds his/her thesis proven wrong by the markets, e.g. Peter Schiff and Steven van Metre.
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  121. The traitors are getting bold. It's pretty absurd how far down the shitter America has been led by the kleptocrats in DC.
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  122. Everything is always biblical prophecy to those who have never read other scriptures or histories. This is clearly the Kali Yuga foretold in the Hindu scriptures to those who have read them. Christians need to get over themselves and stop seeing themselves as these perpetual victims being attacked by the Devil -- y'all have killed enough millions of innocents to defend your faith already.
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  123.  @lastcall8286  my religion doesn't care about macroeconomics or geopolitics. My religion is focused on the ineffable. No use or space for prophecies of irrelevant squabbles in my religion.
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  124.  @lastcall8286  the Christian prophecies are always coming to fruition because they were just a pseudo-mystical description of the then-current times -- they are just a description of events that commonly occur throughout history. There's no special value to them anymore than my noticing the 2018 yield curve inversion gave my prophecy of the 2019-2020 crisis/recession any spiritual or magical significance. The same can be said about the prophecies of many religions. For example, from the Voluspa (a dead witch's prophecy of Ragnarok) in the Poetic Edda: "(38) I saw oathbreakers wading in those thick streams, and murderers, and those who seduce others' lovers. There Nithhogg sucks the corpses of the fallen, snaps them in his jaws. Have you learned enough yet, Allfather?...(44) Brothers will fight one another and kill one another, cousins will break peace with one another, the world will be a hard place to live in. It will be an age of adultery, an age of the axe, an age of the sword, an age of storms, an age of wolves, shields will be cloven. Before the world sinks in the sea, there will be no man left who is true to another." Another example, randomly selected from the Dead Sea Scrolls (Hymn 10 (formerly 5) of the Thanksgiving Hymns): (~30) The torrents of Belial shall reach to all sides of the world. In all their channels a consuming fire shall destroy every tree, green and barren, on their banks; unto the end of their courses it shall scourge with flames of fire, and shall consume the foundations of the earth and the expanse of dry land. The bases of the mountains shall blaze and the roots of the rocks shall turn to torrents of pitch; it shall devour as far as the great Abyss." There are many scriptures that have prophecies that apply broadly because human civilization is inherently cyclical. It does not grant any spiritual superiority to any over the others. In my opinion, "you will know them by their fruits". I can indeed describe my religion with quite a lot of detail and scriptural references. It just isn't any of your business. Y'all slaughtered the gnostics for their slight differences in opinion, so I have no interest in relaying to you mine. Some of those fruits Iesous was talking about. Also, if you are criticizing me for not addressing the specific Christian prophecies, then why haven't you done so? You have said nothing specific at all.
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  125. Gotta get in at the ground floor of the next big ponzi. It has a pinky promise protocol that prevents rug pulls.
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  126. The Fed has mentioned that instead of incurring a loss when they sell assets at a loss, they will create a "deferred asset" which gets destroyed in lieu of remitting future profits to the Treasury. I think their plan is to paper over an insolvency with "deferred assets" the way they violated their charter in 2020 by funding special purpose vehicles at the Treasury. Whether they can do that to justify paying out IOR is yet to be determined, but I wouldn't put it past them to try it and then get tepidly reprimanded by Congress the next year.
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  127. Before gold and silver, we had credit money. The oldest form of money is a ledger entry.
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  128. Good analysis. Maybe would be worth also mentioning Greg Foss' valuation of approximately $200k as a basket of sovereign CDSes, which is a 6.5x upside.
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  129. I always like hearing from Joseph Wang. He's very knowledgeable yet humble and mild-mannered.
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  130. Random side note: I know you like the quote "lighting brushfires in the minds of men", but a potentially useful (and humorous) alternative is "lighting brushfires under the asses of men".
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  131. I think that "extraordinary measures" typically means withholding payments for contractors and employees to prioritize debt payments after the TGA drains down past a certain level.
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  132. It's a bit odd and ironic to interrupt an interview video more than once to say "this isn't an ad, but [product advertisement]" -- it's kinda like saying "I'm not a racist, but [racial stereotype]". This is so weird. I was considering BlockFi, but after hearing all these ads and then seeing all the stuff about uninsured counterparty risk in their ToS, I'm thinking I might go with some other yield farming system instead.
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  133. Gasoline prices are up 10% over the past 2 weeks in my area.
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  134. Potential problem with this thesis is that the banks are taking huge losses due to the Archegos Capital hedge fund implosion. If the implosion of margin debt becomes a trend, then the banks won't be able to afford the buybacks. We are at record high margin debt, so I doubt very seriously that current valuations are sustainable.
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  135. Kudos on predicting the Fed would start making a massive loss. It was a prescient thesis that has been proven correct.
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  136. Another solid video. Good antidote to all the snake oil propaganda.
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  137.  Sonnenrad Rising  We already involuntarily eat spiders. Isn't that enough?
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  138. Greek*, not Latin
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  139. Keynes was an observant, intelligent, and honest man. He made clear that his models were fitted to work with the totalitarian governments of the post-WW2 era. The mistake made was that these models would continue to work after the war-time totalitarianism faded into memory.
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  140. The federal government gets a lot of taxes paid on a quarterly basis. For large enough entities, the fee for not making quarterly pre-payments that meet their year-end income tax liability can be sizeable, though for small entities it is generally not that big a deal. Also, tax return extensions are due September 15th for corporate and October 15th for personal; any procrastinators will have to deal with those shortly, and often that involves paying more money to Uncle Sam so he doesn't break your knees.
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  141. You gotta stop using M1. They retroactively changed the definition halfway through 2020, so the series is broken and inaccurate. Use either M0, M2, or a recreated original M1.
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  142. 2:25 “And all the [Watchers] took unto themselves wives, and each chose for himself one, and they began to go in unto them and to defile themselves with them [...] And they became pregnant, and they bare great giants, whose height was three thousand ells: Who consumed all the acquisitions of men. And when men could no longer sustain them, the giants turned against them and devoured mankind. And they began to sin against birds, and beasts, and reptiles, and fish, and to devour one another's flesh, and drink the blood. Then the earth laid accusation against the lawless ones. [...] And as men perished, they cried, and their cry went up to heaven. [...] And to Gabriel said the Lord: "Proceed against the bastards and the reprobates, and against the children of fornication: and destroy the children of the Watchers from among men: send them one against the other that they may destroy each other in battle: for length of days they will not have. And no request that they make of you will be granted unto their fathers on their behalf; for they hope to live an eternal life, and that each one of them will live 500 years." And the Lord said unto Michael: "Go, bind Semjaza and his associates who have united themselves with women so as to have defiled themselves with them in all uncleanness. And when their sons have slain one another, and they have seen the destruction of their beloved ones, bind them fast for seventy generations in the valleys of the earth, until the day of their judgment..."” -- 1 Enoch, chapters 7, 8, and 10
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  143. They are literally trying to bring about the Mark of the Beast. Throw your silver in the streets at the end-of-the-world block party.
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  144. "Brought to you ad free by these interruptions shilling my corporate sponsor." Wtf, dude. Just put it at the beginning and at the end. Interrupting the flow of the video severely degrades the quality, and saying "ad free" and then spouting an ad is just a lie.
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  145. What is interesting about this CBDC is that it will destroy their economy as quickly as the destruction of small banking institutions in America has caused its economic doom. The Fed has no interest in killing off the banks as everyone knows what happened with the Soviet Union's single bank.
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  146. As crazy as it might seem, I think that many central bankers legitimately believe that they have to intervene to save humanity -- ivory tower institutions tend to recruit those who are inclined to drink the Kool-Aid -- and some might can be deprogrammed from the fiat cult. I wonder how many of them could be convinced to be replaced with an autonomous, decentralized technology stack that efficiently and scalably provides all the monetary services that the central bankers think they are providing, e.g. would the Fed willingly cede any monetary authority to a decentralized system that demonstrably meets all of its current and historical mandates (elastic currency, price stability, and maximum employment)?
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  147.  @uncommonsense5876  May need to check the Cares Act numbers again, but as I recall, most of it went to corporations via the Paycheck Protection Program; some of them used it to pay their employees, but it dropped directly to the bottom line for most of them. The largest stimulus to ordinary people was the mortgage/rent forbearance; second largest was student loan forbearance; third largest was direct handouts and increased unemployment benefits. But that does not even consider the bailouts by the Fed buying up corporate bonds through special purpose vehicles -- global megacorps got to refinance tens of billions at about 1-2% APR and were oversubscribed.
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  148. It will be quite an experience when it happens. I really want to see how Mike Maloney reacts. He's been preparing for it for decades.
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  149.  @vijayvarade8077  Technically, you're allowed to issue dollar denominated liabilities the same as the Fed as long as someone will accept them.
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  150. The barbarians did not destroy historical records. That was the legacy of Christendom: Byzantium did not want alternative ideas and factual history to disprove the official Christian Empire narrative. Even today, Christians are totally ignorant of the mystery religions that were precursors for the Jesus story, which is original only in some names and locations, specifically because the evidence was destroyed and suppressed by the Christian emperors.
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  151. UK still on gold standard; gold moves to America; UK goes back onto the gold standard. What?
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  152. The audio distortions may actually be divine providence to keep the bots from interpreting the content and banning the video. I appreciate the demonstration of cajones in treating this topic so honestly. However, there is a distinct possibility of deflationary bust in the near term.
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  153. The Treasury has not provided numbers of debt monetized by the Fed since March. My guess is that they saw the Zimbabwefication index hitting 16% and knew that the only way to avoid an instant currency crisis was to hide and obfuscate. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=txx2 Last time it hit 16%, we had the Nixon shock followed by over a decade of massive inflation, and gold rose from $35/ozt to $650/ozt. This is likely to be extreme and crazy.
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  154. Giants and Nephilim die in cataclysms. The federal government is the largest of the current Nephilim, imo: it consumes all the wealth of the earth, and the earth cannot sustain it, so it now feasts upon the children of men, and the souls of the slain cry out and make their suit in heaven for divine judgment upon the earth. This will come in time, because it always does. And just like the flood, whatever cataclysm awaits will be devastating. But the few righteous who sanctify the technology of the Nephilim will be delivered: it is for this reason that Noah's ark has the same dimensions as the Nephilim.
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  155. Based upon the recent monetary contraction, it looks like there will be a crash, but I've had the timing wrong thus far (I thought it would happen in the first or second week of this month).
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  156.  @pamelam2911  the two greatest forces for corruption in this nation are fractional reserve banking and the first-past-the-post voting system. The solution to the latter is to use score voting or score runoff voting (it builds consensus rather than relying upon polarization to drive voter turnout). Many people are working on possible solutions to the former -- for example, I have drafted a reference contract for a currency cooperative (9 pages + annex) and am using it and a few other reference contracts as inspiration for the VM of an entirely new crypto system that should do to the issuance of crypto tokens what bittorrent did to file-sharing.
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  157. Just a technical point, but the landmasses have changed quite dramatically over the last several million years -- it has not been a "fixed supply" per se, especially when considering things like Doggerland disappearing under the sea, along with the infrastructure for the civilization that lived there.
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  158.  @craigscott2315  gold is not backed by the mining effort. The mining effort is a sunk cost. You can't redeem your gold for the labor and resources used to mine and refine it.
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  159.  @craigscott2315  I get it. I'm just saying that gold is not "backed" by anything. Things have value only in a subjective sense, that is why we have markets: to assign prices to things to make it easier to compare the subjective value you assign to something against the value others demand/offer in exchange.
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  160. Love of Sophia, the goddess of wisdom, is the literal meaning of "philosophy". All the pagan sages of the ancient world were renowned for their wisdom and not their intelligence.
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  161. Some people will say that nothing before Bretton Woods can be called the "reserve currency" because they say reserves are held only by central banks, but I think that it is reasonable to rebut by pointing out that the banking model itself involves reserves even in lieu of a central bank.
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  162. Another thing to consider about the dark age was the period of minimal solar activity degrading crop harvests, further diverting human effort to basic survival.
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  163. In my opinion, the rising power is Bitcoin. The CCP is fond of their 5 year plans because they worked out so well that they've only killed tens of millions of their own slavizens to implement them. The only group potentially more corrupt and less competent are the demented buffoons in DC. But Bitcoin will be a beautiful anarchy built upon peaceful competition and mutual respect, and its citizens are becoming wealthy while the diseased old system dies under the weight of its unfixable flaws.
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  164. The first Blockfi advert was well-timed. Definitely an improvement over past videos. Edit: both were well-timed.
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  165. The Russian military does not even enforce the use of securely encrypted communication systems. And the average age in China is 45+, which is not really the age you want for your newly recruited soldiers.
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  166.  @andrewwotherspoona5722  China will be irrelevant in a few more decades due to their demographic collapse problem. The rouble isn't a free trading currency anymore -- nobody can access the real financial system using roubles, so the nominal exchange rate is irrelevant. Seriously, try to trade some roubles at that fake exchange rate and tell me how it goes.
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  167.  @andrewwotherspoona5722  it is worth bearing in mind that "inevitable" and "imminent" are not synonymous. USD will likely maintain its network effects for most of this decade, though the current currency warfare runs the risk of accelerating the dedollarization trend. However, it is important to note that dedollarization is still slower than dollarization -- more dollars and dollar-denominated debt exist now than ever before, and the pace of the increase far exceeds any overtures to dedollarization by jilted political regimes.
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  168.  @andrewwotherspoona5722  my guess is that either Bitcoin will grow enough to subsume the role of the Treasury bill as the collateral of choice, or something currently in the works will emerge and become the new standard, or perhaps both.
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  169. I expect a dollar short squeeze/credit crunch/valuation plunge next month followed by helicopter money and massive inflation. Of course, it'll all be blamed on Corona-chan, who has done nothing wrong.
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  170.  @craigking391  similar concept, but the other way around: they'll just classify the sale however they have to to make the transaction verify and settle. There are too many people and businesses, and it would be unequal treatment under the law, and thus illegal, to make it work with only a select handful of conspiring corporations. If they set up adequate gatekeeping measures, the rollout will be too slow to be successful. If they roll it out quickly and successfully, they have to abandon gatekeeping.
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  171.  @rainbowodysseybyjonlion  "money" is the most marketable/salable good. We cannot rightly call the Federal Reserve Note a currency because it is not redeemable for anything. It's all a bit confusing. Hopefully I'll have a better understanding of it all after I finish reading the Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises.
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  172.  @rainbowodysseybyjonlion  "redeem" and "exchange" are not the same thing. To redeem something is to exchange it for some specific promised thing from the issuer. You can't say that a coat check is "redeemable" because you can exchange it for candy when your coat has been expropriated. FRNs cannot be redeemed for anything in the same way that gold coins cannot be redeemed for anything; they are the things themselves.
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  173. How so?
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  174. I heard a persuasive argument that interest rates are not the price of money. It goes something like this: the price of a market good is inversely correlated with changes in supply, so you would expect the price of money to be 0% during hyperinflation due to the increased supply; the historical evidence of interest rates going hyperbolic alongside money supply succinctly refutes the claim that interest rates are the price of money.
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  175. Fwiw, it would be mind-blowing if after the zoom out to show the studio, it zoomed out a bit more to show that the whole thing was a green screen. Just a thought for next April.
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  176.  @1MarkMoss  right, but it would be a funny April 1st joke to edit it to look like a green screen/accidental fourth wall break. Use CGI to make it look like you're using CGI.
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  177. I think that the drama around will-he-wont-he was to do with gag orders from alphabet agencies manipulating discourse to subvert our elections.
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