Comments by "k98killer" (@k98killer) on "laowhy86" channel.

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  13. The subprime collapse led to the global financial crisis because the assets were mingled with the collateral necessary for international money markets and fiduciary functioning, and the resultant hybrid assets were used as collateral; when the subprime loans went bad, it dragged down the entire swathe of assets they were mingled with and wiped out most collateral in the system, so credit froze. The losses to American banks due to the subprime loans themselves was small compared to the losses caused by the collateral implosion. With China, the bad real estate assets are owned by investors in China. The ongoing collapse in Chinese real estate (which perhaps should be renamed "real fake-estate") is unlikely to contaminate global money markets and fiduciary functioning because nobody outside of China was dumb enough to buy into their bubble. However, a deflationary impulse is expected because banks and international investors do have some exposure to bonds issued by the giant developer companies that are up shit creek sans paddle (30+ out of the 50 largest are in default right now from what I've heard). Primary effect will be a regional depression in Asia and recession elsewhere; secondary effect will be rising consumer prices as Chinese exporters fail to deliver to markets that import a lot of Chinese goods. If JPow misinterprets the secondary effect, he'll contribute significantly to the primary one with more bad policy. (It's almost like having a central politburo to declare interest rates is a bad idea.)
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