Comments by "k98killer" (@k98killer) on "ClearValue Tax" channel.

  1. That's a bet I'll take. I wager $0 that we'll get $0.
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  2. Egg price shock is, by definition, not inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon; a price shock due to shortages is not a monetary phenomenon.
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  3. The confusion between inflation and CPI is a pet peeve. Inflation is the expansion of the circulating stock of money and credit in excess of the expansion of demand for money due to increased economic activity: if the circulating money supply doubles but economic activity increases sufficiently to double the demand for money, there will not be any inflation. CPI, on the other hand, is an attempt to approximate changes in prices across a basket of goods and services as a replacement for an accurate measure of inflation, which would be primarily monetary.
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  4. One potential for federal debt monetization will be the expansion of crypto dollar/stable coin use. Issuers of stable coins typically buy Treasury bills as their primary reserve asset, so expanding the demand for them, perhaps by the federal government using them to make some payments, could result in further debt monetization. As long as the monetization outpaces the debt servicing cost and budget deficit, it is viable. However, since the interest would accrue to an entity that does not remit profits to the Treasury the way the Fed does (during normal times when it isn't bankrupt), they'll only get a slight discount in the form of income taxes on that interest.
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  5. The only way an ERS would make sense is if the total number of employees and the total operational cost of the ERS and CBP combined are lower than the current number of employees and operational cost of the CBP.
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  6. I like the all-weather/dragon portfolio approach: 4-5 uncorrelated categories, each diversified appropriately. Also, dollar cost average.
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  7. "Ms. Blunt" is a really great name for a politician on an oversight committee.
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  8. Monetary debasement is the inevitable conclusion.
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  9. Creating a special one-time non-refundable tax credit for the next tax year using the previous year of discretionary expenditure reductions to determine the value stands a much better chance of passing imo. It is a much cleaner structure, and it requires Congress to actually cut spending by the amount DOGE saves before it takes effect. If this became a structural thing, Representatives would get a lot of grassroots pressure to keep the cuts coming so that the tax burden keeps lightening.
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  10. 1. Discretionary spending for affected agencies decreases by at least 80% of DOGE savings for that agency, leaving a bit of wiggle room for DOGE errors. 2. Total tax credit value will equal the amount of discretionary budget decrease multiplied by 0.2. 3. Tax credit value per tax payer becomes that total divided by the number of tax payers for the previous tax year. 4. Repeat this process every year.
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  11. The Fed "remains agile", yet they have accumulated losses in excess of 6 times their capital, impairing their liabilities by 3%. "Agile".
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  12. Bitcoin will probably be the fastest horse in the great melt-up race, but doing something like a dragon portfolio makes a lot of sense.
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  13. 🤡🌎🇺🇸
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  14. Supposedly, new banking regulations will allow banks to hold TSYs as reserves without requiring they put them in the HTM bucket or reserve any capital against them because the Fed now has an emergency lending program to lend to member banks against TSYs at par during liquidity crises. However, so far the only similar regulations are about stable coin issuance, which might be the route they take. I think this will be an inevitable development sometime this year or next, because the only way to extend and pretend is with monetary debasement.
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  15. @blackballoon4u  nothing Trump does to "ensure fair trade" is going to reduce the federal debt. DOGE has so far saved $140 billion; if it can keep up this pace for the rest of the year, it will save about $700 billion, but this is a highly questionable projection. Moreover, DOGE savings are supposed to make the government more efficient -- actually cutting the budget requires Congress. The Republicans in Congress passed a spending bill that had substantially no cuts, which will result in a $2T deficit. The only real solution is to cut spending and reform entitlements, and only Congress can do that, and Congress is the least functional branch of government, so I doubt it will happen.
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  16. Lower interest rates will be only for the government. Everyone else will be starved of credit.
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  17. Have you seen David Schweikert's recent presentation to Congress? Closing the carried interest loophole will generate enough additional tax revenue to replace a few hours worth of borrowing by the federal government.
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  18. Monetary policy is broken when the issuer of base money, the Treasury, is issuing without end. The Fed increasing interest rates causes larger federal deficits, which are inflationary; bank NIMs and thus profits increase, leading to expansion of bank capital through retained earnings and thus enabling them to lend more, which is also inflationary. Raising interest rates only fights CPI when it results in 1) a shift in bank lending preferences from financing consumption to financing production and 2) a shift in broader market participant preferences from spending to saving. The normal model assumes both outcomes, but they are not guaranteed. The normal model also confuses inflation, which is an expansion of circulating money and credit, with CPI.
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