Comments by "k98killer" (@k98killer) on "Eurodollar University" channel.

  1. Not just the economy. Loads of injustice and authoritarianism, too. Arguably, that was a bigger issue for a lot of voters.
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  2. Such losses could have been avoided with adequate interest rate hedging via swaps. The unrealized losses combined with almost 90% of SVB's funding being from deposits triggered the bank run which then forced them to realize losses that outstripped their capital.
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  3.  @lines2code  I tried responding with specific examples of authoritarianism experiences here in the US, and ThemTube censored my comment. Ironically, censorship at the behest of the White House was one of my gripes.
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  4. I love how Snyder and Van Millimeter said "there won't be inflation" when M2 saw a 40% increase over 2 years, then kept saying "there's no real inflation" as CPI got up around 10%, and now keep saying "there wasn't any real inflation" now that prices have stabilized much higher years later. "It's not money printing" except that M2 increased 40% in 2 years.
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  5. ​ @jmltrades  trying to figure out why any market moved in a particular way is a temptation that regularly ensnares people. Jeff has thought for years that he knew the reason why things happen and made some very inaccurate predictions because of his unmerited confidence. Happens to us all, but some of us are able to recognize and admit when it happens, and Jeff so far has not been able to.
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  6. That is approximately equal to 7.4% per year compounded price increases.
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  7. The worst was that one guy who credited him for TLT calls printing momentarily due to a surprise announcement that nobody predicted which led to options IV increasing.
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  8. BTFP loans have a 1 year term. The ending of the program does not mean the calling of the loans -- it just means they will stop making new loans or rolling over old loans. It will take a year to fully unwind the program.
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  9. To be fair, the vast majority of corporate workforce output is just regurgitation with maybe a few twists.
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  10. I don't know that I buy into the notion that the "September effect" is some strange anomaly while the price action afterward is "more fundamental". Sounds like physicists positing the existence of dark matter and dark energy because their models don't work.
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  11.  @justincrane1220  regional banks are going to suffer for sure, but I don't think it is necessarily an inevitable catastrophe.
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  12.  @justincrane1220  technically, it began with the repo market meltdown in September 2019, but I get what you're saying
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  13. It seems to me that liquidity is an endogenous characteristic of this endogenous system, and thus it cannot be effectively managed by exogenous forces like governments and central banks -- it seems that they think they can swoop in to save the day when they really can't.
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  14. I sometimes feel some small bit of hope that Jeff isn't totally lost, but just look at him -- his aesthetic now fits his crazy prophet screaming in the wilderness act. Maybe some day he will snap back to reality and abandon the myopic tunnel vision blinders he has created for himself, but I somewhat doubt it.
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  15. ​ @Hotshot24-7 he partnered with SVM to shill his bond portfolio fund thing, which lost investors like 40% in the first year of their partnership. All the while, they were singing in unison that there would be no inflation, then that there was no real inflation, then that the inflation was over as the CPI kept rising every month. The level of delusion involved in their analyses is extraordinary -- they said that Fed monetization of TSYs that resulted in the creation of new bank deposits was somehow not inflationary -- that M2 rising was somehow actually a sign of deflation. I tuned out and found better sources of information and analysis. I occasionally lend Jeff an ear to see if he is saying anything new and useful, but so far it has been quite underwhelming.
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  16. I think he is too inflexible in his analysis. No matter what, he will not consider the US domestic monetary system except as he sees it affecting the eurodollar system.
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  17. Listening and following are two different things. I like the maxim "listen to all but follow none".
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  18.  @steviewonder417  Macro Alf is my source for the idea of hedging duration risk with rate swaps. I have not read all the regulations for HTM securities. Do you have any suggested sources for evaluating your claim that it was not legally possible to hedge with swaps?
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  19. The global monetary crisis might not be due to rate hikes, but rate hikes were definitely part of SVB's failure. Rate hikes are also the main reason that the Fed is a few weeks away from being technically insolvent as well.
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  20. I guess if you say "disinflation and deflation risk" long enough, you'll actually be right once in a while. Remember when Jeff was saying "there's no inflation" after M2 expanded 40% and CPI hit 9%?
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  21. No landing = free-fall
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  22. So, we use the dollar to denominate the eurodollar system because the US government, while occasionally defaulting on its own contract obligations, has a long history of enforcing contract obligations on everyone else.
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  23. SVB is hopefully unique because of their 80%+ funding reliance on deposits from VC-backed tech startups and an unhedged book. Tide going out reveals the nude swimmers.
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  24. It's the bankers' system, but it's everyone's problem.
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  25. Commercial bank deposits increased 36% over 2 years, so the printed money wasn't sterilized and sent to the moon. Irritating how he never addresses data that detracts from his thesis. Steven van Millimeter even said that the M2 came from somewhere else outside the system rather than being created within the system. Rubbish.
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  26. In summary, it's another instance of Professor Farnsworth saying "bad news, everyone".
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  27. Idk. Jeff has been so wrong for so long that I don't feel inclined to believe him this time.
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  28. ​ @jcgoogle1808 the BLS does not calculate shelter prices honestly or accurately. They understated CPI while it was rising and peaking, and now they will overstate it while it drops.
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  29. Sort of, but future demand (loan installments) does not directly offset current supply in the present.
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  30. The ChatGPT spam bots are out of control.
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  31. Another interpretation of the TSYs inverting Fed RRP: the Fed is on track to go bankrupt next year due to net interest expense; their only options will be to seek a bailout from the Treasury, which means from Congress, or get the member banks to pay in more capital so that the Fed can piss it away as well. There are no accounting tricks or gimmicks they can do to avoid insolvency from interest expense. Meanwhile, the interest expense on outstanding federal debt now takes up ~60-70% of all tax revenues and is likely higher than annual military expenditures; if all goes well, there will be a $3-4 trillion deficit next year. We are quickly careening toward a sovereign debt crisis in America, and the pace is accelerating. The fact that the Fed will likely be reliant upon a Treasury bailout means that the Fed has higher credit risk than the Treasury at this point, and that is being priced in along with the inevitability of lower interest rates.
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  32. I used GitHub Copilot for an enterprise Java project last week. It saved me a ton of time and effort -- I was able to get a week's worth of work done in a day. I might try using it in my own Python projects next to see if it is even half as good in a programming language with less boilerplate nonsense. Earlier this year, I met a product manager for a GSIB, and he explained how he was using AI to substantially improve his workflow. The productivity increase for corporate workers is already pretty big -- the only questions that remain are 1) how much adoption will this technology see and 2) how well will the producers of this technology be able to monetize their sunk costs.
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  33. I really don't get why they don't just publish and use an algorithm for automatically making small adjustments and just do the manual intervention occasionally when the algorithm misses something.
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  34. ​ AyjayAlleyway shelves won't be empty because of the inventory build-up
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  35. My cat enjoyed watching the charts sweep across the screen.
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  36. Babylon Bee needs to run with the headline "Federal Reserve Announces New Acronym to Address Banking Crisis" sometime
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  37. Alternatively, there was a sharp, measurable increase in domestic currency supply in 2020-2021, which tapered out and reversed in 2022. So it largely was monetary as far as the domestic economy was concerned. The balloon-like increase in corporate and government debt following the March 2020 crash was also a monetary effect globally, but it was part of a shock rather than a trend, and that will unwind as the debt gets paid down, causing a deflationary monetary effect.
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  38. Happy November Thursday ⛄ Time to build another ark to save ourselves from the flood.
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  39. Good economic news? Deflationary ✅ Bad economic news? Deflationary ✅ No economic news? Deflationary ✅ Low government deficits? Deflationary ✅ High government deficits? Deflationary ✅ Government printing money through central bank monetizing government debt? Deflationary ✅
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  40. They say "sound and resilient" like they are trying to cast a spell, but they have no idea how to actually cast one.
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  41. How can a country have an economy without a store of value? The yuan clearly cannot be trusted to be a store of value, and now no longer can Chinese real estate.
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  42. A broken clock is right once every few years.
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  43. Eurodollar University -- frequent lectures, but only one assignment: find a way to fix or replace the eurodollar system. Whoever does this will be the first and only graduate.
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  44. I think that most intelligent people were saying "Fed's gonna hike until something breaks" rather than "prepare for a soft landing".
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  45. So, do we think the monetary system is the source of the problem that will be reflected in the economy, or is the source of the problem in the economy and merely represented in the monetary system? Seems to me like a bit of both.
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  46.  @johnryskamp2943  So if the system won't make loans when loans are needed, then which is at fault: the economy or the monetary system? And on what do you base this simple, linear model of causality?
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  47. The Treasury targets a TGA level equal to the upcoming month's expected outflows regardless of tax revenues collected or possible borrowings. The amount will grow with the debt level as more debt has to be paid off and rolled over every month.
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  48. Something something deflation. Something something economy.
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  49. "Call us Alphabet because we definitely weren't founded by the NSA and definitely don't work with the FBI and CIA...."
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  50. Funny how he failed to acknowledge that the DXY fell this time and not during the last TSY sell-off.
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