Comments by "Cheese Business" (@cheesebusiness) on "The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy" video.

It’s like having 2 same size bags: one with 1 white marble and the other one with million black marbles. And putting your hand into a random bag to grab all the marbles. According to Derek, the chance of picking a black marble is million times higher. Well, you’ll have more black marbles in average, but the fact that you forget that all the black marbles are a result of a single outcome doesn’t make them being picked independently.
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4:16 Actually this experiment shows that the probability is 1/2. Probability is the number of event occurrences divided by the number of experiments (tosses of the coin). If you get 5, 5 and 5 in the columns, you must divide each by 10, not by 15, because the coin was tossed 10 times.
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3:00 It’s wrong for a very simple reason: the bottom events are not complementary. The sum of probabilities equals 100% only if the outcomes are complementary, i.e. one and only one outcome can ever occur. In this case the bottom events can occur in the same outcome: the bottom Tuesday occurs if and only if the bottom Monday occurs. So the answer is: the probability of all 3 cases is 50%.
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It’s easy to prove that 1/3 is a cognitive bias, I hope you’ll make a video about it
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People use probabilities theory rules carelessly, without taking all the nuances into account. That’s why “paradoxes” like this arise.
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@ВадимНечунаев-л2о , the fact that you know nothing about probabilities doesn’t mean that the probabilities are evenly distributed
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@ВадимНечунаев-л2о , you forget a nuance. Probability is the number of events divided by the NUMBER OF EXPERIMENTS. You may inspect marbles million times and forget million times, but the actual experiment (picking a bag) was performed only once. The sum of probabilities will be something like 10000% in this case, but it’s ok because the events are not complementary.
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@ВадимНечунаев-л2о , probability is not about unknown. Probability is about observing large number of experiments. Please read the “probability” definition of probabilities theory. If you face something completely new, the probability is unknown because no experiments were conducted. In your “100%” example, you miss a detail: the probability of getting the white marble is 100% only if you WANT to pick it, this is another experiment. If you know where it is and still pick a random bag, the probability doesn’t change.
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@ВадимНечунаев-л2о , you just contradict what probabilities theory says. You may keep saying this, but it will be another theory with other applications.
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