Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Thinkers Forum" channel.

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  7. If it is an American I usually say this Anericans probably can’t make a distinction between the two types of debt because the US Government/US FED has had no problems taking internal Agency Debt which is private Debt and not back by the US Government and then turning into External Sovereign Debt Since we know from 2017 to Q3 of 2019 the FEDs bright idea was to allow 50 to 60 billion of the Agency Debt and US Treasury Debt it soaped up during QE to slowly mature each month, off the FEDs balance sheet. Where the US Treasury would issue new corresponding debt for the public to buy. It ended during Q3 of 2019 Because that selling ended up freezing up the repo market Just like when it happened in 2008/2009 during the subprime crisis Thus the FED balance sheet went from 4.5 trillion to about 3.8 trillion. Last I checked its was back over 8 trillion. As the US FED had to buy back that US Treasury Debt it dumped and more 👇 As politicians call for taxpayer bailouts and a government takeover of troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, FreedomWorks would like to point out that a bailout is a transfer of possibly hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars to sophisticated investors and governments overseas. The top five foreign holders of Freddie and Fannie long-term debt are China, Japan, the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. In total foreign investors hold over $1.3 trillion in these agency bonds, according to the U.S. Treasury’s most recent “Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities.” FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe commented, “The prospectus for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government. That’s why investors holding agency bonds already receive a significant risk premium over Treasuries.” “A bailout at this stage would be the worst possible outcome for American taxpayers and mortgage holders, who have been paying a risk premium to these foreign investors. It would change the rules of the game retroactively and would directly subsidize the risks taken by sophisticated foreign investors.” “A bailout of GSE bondholders would be perhaps the greatest taxpayer rip-off in American history. It is bad economics and you can be sure it is terrible politics.” FreedomWorks
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  22. People like you make it seem like Chinese are out of house and home when we already know 90% of Chinese families own a home 80% free of any encumbrances We also know 70% of the Chinese in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in 2018 We also know it was more well off Chinese investing in these Real Estate Developers wealth management products And most importantly people like you crying for speculation, empty home and foreign investors taxes here????and the rise of interest rates here to combat high real estate prices. Like a first time homebuyer wouldn’t fall through the cracks also in the west Are the same people who cry because the Chinese Government started to crack down in Real Estate speculation in China 14 years ago where it’s only starting to bite now . Acting like we are supposed to feel sorry for folks who took a risk Btw the people really getting hurt these days are the “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” in 2010 cut off from money Property Developers started using Shadow Banks really just well off Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown and regulate Then these Developers started selling Wealth Management investment vehicles to the well off Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to flog their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where these Junk bonds really started to take off in popularity these last few years (Btw Property Developer gets a cash infusion what do you think they did with that cash???) The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Property Developers Companies/Junk Bonds I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China as an investment option in the late 80s during my investment banking days My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade They didnt listen 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  25. I usually wait for someone to argue debt is debt Then I give them this article 👇 Difference Between Internal Debt and External Debt! The basic character of an internal debt is quite different from that of the external debt. In external debt, at the time of repayment there is a real transfer of resources. In case of internal debt, however, since it is borrowed from individuals and institutions within the country repayment will constitute only a re-distribution of resources without causing any change in the total resources of the community. There can, thus, be no direct money burden caused by internal debts since all payments cancel each other out in the aggregate community as a whole. Whatever is taxed from one section of the community servicing the debts is distributed among the bond-holders by way of repayment of loans and interest; and quite often, the tax-payer and the bond-holder may be the same person. At the most, to the extent that the incomes of tax-payers (in a sense, debtors) are reduced, so will the incomes of creditors/ bond-holders increase, but the aggregate position of the community will, nevertheless, remain the same. However, internal debt may involve a direct real burden on the community according to the nature of the series of transfer of incomes from tax payers to the public creditors. To the extent the tax-payers and the bond-holders are the same, the distribution of wealth will remain unaltered; hence there will not be any net real burden on the community. Yourarticlelibrary
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  26. Then when they try and argue how Chinese debt is really Government debt because the banks or corporations are State owned I give them this article 👇 China's Creative Accounting: How It Buried Its Debt and Forged Ahead with Stimulus What is China's secret? According to financial commentator Jim Jubak, it may just be "creative accounting" -- the sort of accounting for which Wall Street is notorious, in which debts are swept off the books and turned into "assets." China is able to pull this off because it does not owe its debts to foreign creditors. The banks doing the funding are state-owned, and the state can write off its own debts. Jubak observes: China has a history of taking debt off its books and burying it, which should prompt us to poke and prod its numbers. If we go back to the last time China cooked the national books big time, during the Asian currency crisis of 1997, we can get an idea of where its debt might be hidden now. The majority of bank loans, says Jubak, went to state-owned companies -- about 70% of the total. The collapse of China's export trade following the crisis meant that its banks were suddenly sitting on billions in debts that were clearly never going to be paid. But that was when China's largest banks were trying to raise capital by selling stock in Hong Kong and New York, and no bank could go public with that much bad debt on its books. The creative solution? The Beijing government set up special-purpose asset management companies for the four largest state-owned banks, the equivalent of the "special purpose vehicles" designed by Wall Street to funnel real estate loans off U.S. bank books. The Chinese entities ultimately bought $287 billion in bad loans from state-owned banks. To pay for the loans, they issued bonds to the banks, on which they paid interest. The state-owned banks thus got $287 billion in toxic debt off their books and turned the bad loans into an income stream from the bonds. Sound familiar? Wall Street did the same thing in the 2008 bailout, with the U.S. government underwriting the deal. The difference was that China's largest banks were owned by the government, so the government rather than a private banking cartel got the benefit of the arrangement. According to British economist Samah El-Shahat, writing in Al Jazeera in August 2009: China hasn't allowed its banking sector to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the shots or highjack the bailout. In simple terms, the government preferred to answer to its people and put their interests first before that of any vested interest or group. And that is why Chinese banks are lending to the people and their businesses in record numbers. In the US and UK, by contrast: banks have captured all the money from the taxpayers and the cheap money from quantitative easing from central banks. They are using it to shore up, and clean up their balance sheets rather than lend it to the people. The money has been hijacked by the banks, and our governments are doing absolutely nothing about that. In fact, they have been complicit in allowing this to happen. HuffPost
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