Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "CNBC International Live" channel.

  1. Chinese had virtually no chip making ability/foundries 6 years ago Now they are going after legacy chip markets 👇 How Close Is China to World Dominance in Legacy Semiconductors? 27-02-2024 | By Paul Whytock * Bread and Butter Technology Obviously, China would like to be a major player when it comes to high-end sophisticated semiconductor devices, but that doesn’t mean they are not interested in the bread-and-butter end of the market, particularly when it comes to legacy products. In fact, they are very interested in the legacy market, and there are some very good reasons why. Legacy devices make up a huge amount of global chip sales. Most chips manufactured today are not advanced chips but legacy chips, and around 71% of devices * China's Aggressive Expansion in the Semiconductor Industry In September 2023, Reuters reported that China was set to launch a new state-backed fund aimed at raising about €43bn to support its chip industry, and according to research analysts, the Rhodium Group, in less than ten years, China is expected to domestically add nearly as much 50–180nm wafer manufacturing capacity as the rest of the World. The views of industry analysts and observers vary, but generally speaking, it’s thought that 22 wafer fabs are being built in the country, and there is an overall plan to create a total of 30 new wafer fabrication plants. Many of these will concentrate on the production of legacy devices. As for market share, industry intelligence gatherers Trendforce believe China’s legacy chip manufacturing base could provide as much as 30% of the global demand for older devices. ElectroPages
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  2. China intentionally slowed down its economy Albeit it took them 14 years to do it
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  3. these days China has 12 times the automation the USA has And the Chinese lead in 37 out of 44 technologies of the future While there is now 27 books series on what the Chinese invented in the past Why start at the 1700s China spent the better part of a millennia trading places with what is now India for top economy in the world By the 1430s it was the top economy and technological leader in the world . But their emperor at the time started the slow process of closing in on itself closing off its borders/a type of nationalism Like we are seeing with far right Governments and the Americans these days This lead to 400 years of decline and then an eventual semi colonization of China for 100 more years Where even up to the 1980s China was 88% in abject poverty These days they are back and they did not run up that external debt like the Americans are running up these days
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  4. Except it was the USA who thought it was a good idea to cut off chip and chip making equipment to China Thinking the Chinese could not innovative when the Chinese lead the world in 37 out of 44 critical technologies of the future Chinese had virtually no chip making ability/foundries 6 years ago Now they are going after legacy chip markets 👇 How Close Is China to World Dominance in Legacy Semiconductors? 27-02-2024 | By Paul Whytock * Bread and Butter Technology Obviously, China would like to be a major player when it comes to high-end sophisticated semiconductor devices, but that doesn’t mean they are not interested in the bread-and-butter end of the market, particularly when it comes to legacy products. In fact, they are very interested in the legacy market, and there are some very good reasons why. Legacy devices make up a huge amount of global chip sales. Most chips manufactured today are not advanced chips but legacy chips, and around 71% of devices * China's Aggressive Expansion in the Semiconductor Industry In September 2023, Reuters reported that China was set to launch a new state-backed fund aimed at raising about €43bn to support its chip industry, and according to research analysts, the Rhodium Group, in less than ten years, China is expected to domestically add nearly as much 50–180nm wafer manufacturing capacity as the rest of the World. The views of industry analysts and observers vary, but generally speaking, it’s thought that 22 wafer fabs are being built in the country, and there is an overall plan to create a total of 30 new wafer fabrication plants. Many of these will concentrate on the production of legacy devices. As for market share, industry intelligence gatherers Trendforce believe China’s legacy chip manufacturing base could provide as much as 30% of the global demand for older devices. ElectroPages
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  5. Chinese had virtually no chip making ability/foundries 6 years ago Now they are going after legacy chip markets 👇 How Close Is China to World Dominance in Legacy Semiconductors? 27-02-2024 | By Paul Whytock * Bread and Butter Technology Obviously, China would like to be a major player when it comes to high-end sophisticated semiconductor devices, but that doesn’t mean they are not interested in the bread-and-butter end of the market, particularly when it comes to legacy products. In fact, they are very interested in the legacy market, and there are some very good reasons why. Legacy devices make up a huge amount of global chip sales. Most chips manufactured today are not advanced chips but legacy chips, and around 71% of devices * China's Aggressive Expansion in the Semiconductor Industry In September 2023, Reuters reported that China was set to launch a new state-backed fund aimed at raising about €43bn to support its chip industry, and according to research analysts, the Rhodium Group, in less than ten years, China is expected to domestically add nearly as much 50–180nm wafer manufacturing capacity as the rest of the World. The views of industry analysts and observers vary, but generally speaking, it’s thought that 22 wafer fabs are being built in the country, and there is an overall plan to create a total of 30 new wafer fabrication plants. Many of these will concentrate on the production of legacy devices. As for market share, industry intelligence gatherers Trendforce believe China’s legacy chip manufacturing base could provide as much as 30% of the global demand for older devices. ElectroPages
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  6. India with a younger workforce A larger workforce And lower wages Is averaging 90 to 100 billion dollar trade deficit each year, with China since 2022 👇 India's trade deficit with China stood at $101.02 billion, surging past the $100 billion mark for the first time. TheWire
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  7. China leads the world in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future So the west thought forcing China to innovate with semiconductors was a bright idea
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  8. Most analysts have taken a bearish view on China... Many who probably advised people on those Property Developer Junk Bonds. Where the Chinese Government didn't step into back those Junk bonds
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  9. Even though China has invested trillions in their belt and road partner countries China exports are up 7.1% In 2014 And it still has a 820 billion plus dollar a year trade surplus with the world the last 2 years Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
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  10. Japan showed they were a USA lapdog with the USA getting Japan increase the value of the Yen in relation to the USD American economist will tell you how that didn’t effect the Japanese But their export markets collapsed within 2 years
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  11. Probably a good call now Yes Chinese Stock markets are considered a casino They have no market makers only 14% of the people invest in stocks 85% of the trades are made by mom and pop retailers 81% trade atleast 1 time a month 67% have less than a high school education etc etc etc BUT What it should tell you is with all these types of people in their markets? You will get overbought and oversold bu..ll and bear markets
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  12. The irony is people like you don’t believe a word MSM tells you Unless it’s about China then you believe everything they tell you That Chinese debt is mostly Internal debt Where they have little external debt (2.6 trillion) that they can pay off with just their FX reserves alone Their internal debt they can sweep under the table just like you Americans do Notice how when the do the China vs US debt comparisons they leave out the US internal debt But lump in all Chinese debt together? If they were to include US internal debt with that 34 trillion US external sovereign debt You would have 3 trillion in Local and State debt Non Financial Corporate debt 11 trillion Personal/Household debt of 17.5 trillion Corporate debt securities 23 trillion SS liability 26 trillion Medicare Liability 40 trillion TooBigTooFail Investment banks Derivatives Bets (notational value) 200 trillion Unfunded Liabilities 212 trillion
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  13. As for their real estate? In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  14. If it was up to me I wouldn’t be bailing out these stock investors or investors in Property Developers debt . They took a risk That’s on them not the Government to make these people whole China cut off money flow to these developers in 2010 And only recently in the last few years out of money options. These developers started to sell their junk bonds to “sophisticated foreign investors” I was telling anyone who would listen not to buy in. They probably figured the Central Government would backstop these investments Not when they have been cutting off money flow to them for over a decade 👇 Evergrande Tycoon Crossed a Red Line When Wealth Funds Ran Dry Police are fielding complaints by wealth product investors China authorities have less tolerance for losses by households China Evergrande Group wiped out international investors, roiled financial markets and left thousands of suppliers in the lurch. Yet it was the developer’s failure to pay households who invested in its wealth management products that may have provided the last straw for Chinese authorities. Bloomberg
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  15. Last time I checked about 200 million people invested in stocks out of 1.4 billion Making it around 14% of their population Many opened accounts at the height of the last bull run in 2015 When the markets ran up like 140% in a year and a half The difference is there in no Market Makers in their stock exchanges 85% of the trades are done by mom and pop retail investors 81% trade atleast once a month and 67% have not completed high school
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  16. With that said for people who are looking to take advantage of these wide swings into their markets “ in my opinion” not to be solicited as investment advice the time to start nibbling would be now Ofcourse they take risk of further downward pressures like their Government taking more measures to slow their economy or in this case sitting on their hands tapping the breaks and giving it a little gas But a lot better than buying in at the top of the market There situation kind of reminds me when I was an institutional trader for an investment banking wing of a National bank in Canada When there was a Calgary exchange considered the Wild West at the time Because with unlimited money behind me Sometimes I’d find a stock with a float of 6 million shares and I would be on both sides of the trade for months making the market for that company Trading huge volumes Then I would disappear I got the nickname marketgod because then other traders started to follow my lead, then the retail mom and pops
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  17. The irony is the same westerners who think investments should go up and up in China Are the same people who cheer property prices going down here Who especially have a problem with the foreigner investors speculators here, especially from China With empty home taxes and speculating taxes I would argue any turmoil in China, would create even more money flow to our western countries into our own overpriced real estate markets
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  18. China leaders say they want FDI coming into the country but they really don’t That will just create bubbles they spent over a decade trying to cool if too much flows into the economy again If you ask me their mistake was not going aggressive enough should have instituted a nation wide property tax at least on second homes or more I remember when they had 18.5 % bank reserve ratio requirements Kept raising those ratio requirements in 2010 But then the people just went those shadow bank and underground economy route These days as the bubble has been deflated they are just trying to walk that tightrope They don’t want to slam the breaks but they have to tap it enough to slow it down without crashing the economy And yes they have apparently lent out 1 trillion to their belt and road country partners
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  19. 👆 More like some people don’t believe a single word MSM tells them Unless it’s about China then their word is the Gospel In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest 👇 Huge Price Cuts Rumored From Chinese Developers Due To Collapsing Demand Vincent Fernando, CFA May 29, 2010 Demand is falling since China's central government announced stricter regulations for property transactions during the middle of April. These involve higher down payments and mortgage rates for the purchase of second home, and act which is seen as potential speculation. Such tightening is reducing buying demand. Thus a moderately bearish view is that property prices need to come down, since demand is likely down yet supply is the same. This challenge isn't limited to Shanghai: China Vanke Co, the country's largest publicly listed developer, may cut apartment prices by 10 to 30 percent within three months, the Beijing News said yesterday, citing an unidentified sales agent. Local Vanke officials declined to comment yesterday. Yet Shanghai is where things could get the ugliest, the earliest. This is because the local Shanghai government is planning to clamp down on speculation even harder than China's central government already has: Chen Qiwei, a spokesman for the Shanghai municipal government, did not preclude the possibility of levying property tax when asked about this issue at a press conference on Friday. "Shanghai will take more strict measures in line with the central government policy," Chen said, adding that more efforts will be made in building economically affordable houses and cracking down on speculative house purchasing. Other cities such as Beijing, Chongqing, and Shenzen could have similar additional taxes, but Shanghai is the first to make an official comment such as above according to China Daily. Thing is, any action from Shanghai will likely need approval from the central government. BusinessInsider
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  20. You must be an American 👇 Difference Between Internal Debt and External Debt! The basic character of an internal debt is quite different from that of the external debt. In external debt, at the time of repayment there is a real transfer of resources. In case of internal debt, however, since it is borrowed from individuals and institutions within the country repayment will constitute only a re-distribution of resources without causing any change in the total resources of the community. There can, thus, be no direct money burden caused by internal debts since all payments cancel each other out in the aggregate community as a whole. Whatever is taxed from one section of the community servicing the debts is distributed among the bond-holders by way of repayment of loans and interest; and quite often, the tax-payer and the bond-holder may be the same person. At the most, to the extent that the incomes of tax-payers (in a sense, debtors) are reduced, so will the incomes of creditors/ bond-holders increase, but the aggregate position of the community will, nevertheless, remain the same. However, internal debt may involve a direct real burden on the community according to the nature of the series of transfer of incomes from tax payers to the public creditors. To the extent the tax-payers and the bond-holders are the same, the distribution of wealth will remain unaltered; hence there will not be any net real burden on the community. Yourarticlelibrary
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  21. China's Creative Accounting: How It Buried Its Debt and Forged Ahead with Stimulus What is China's secret? According to financial commentator Jim Jubak, it may just be "creative accounting" -- the sort of accounting for which Wall Street is notorious, in which debts are swept off the books and turned into "assets." China is able to pull this off because it does not owe its debts to foreign creditors. The banks doing the funding are state-owned, and the state can write off its own debts. Jubak observes: China has a history of taking debt off its books and burying it, which should prompt us to poke and prod its numbers. If we go back to the last time China cooked the national books big time, during the Asian currency crisis of 1997, we can get an idea of where its debt might be hidden now. The majority of bank loans, says Jubak, went to state-owned companies -- about 70% of the total. The collapse of China's export trade following the crisis meant that its banks were suddenly sitting on billions in debts that were clearly never going to be paid. But that was when China's largest banks were trying to raise capital by selling stock in Hong Kong and New York, and no bank could go public with that much bad debt on its books. The creative solution? The Beijing government set up special-purpose asset management companies for the four largest state-owned banks, the equivalent of the "special purpose vehicles" designed by Wall Street to funnel real estate loans off U.S. bank books. HuffPost
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  22. Which reminds me when most MSM outlets in the USA compare US Debt to Chinese debt? They take great pains to separate the US external Sovereign debt of 34 trillion from its internal debt Like the the 3 trillion in Local and State debt Non Financial Corporate debt 11 trillion Cooorate debt securities 23 trillion SS liability 26 trillion Medicare Liability 40 trillion Unfunded Liabilities 212 trillion 200 trillion in nominal derivatives bets the TOOBIGTOFAIL Investment banks in the USA can only cover 3% of those bets if you sold all their assets off for top dollar 👆 But then no one gives a sheeet because that is internal debt and if all else fails you borrow externally To cover that debt you don’t sweep under the table Where the Chinese stick their debt (mostly internal debt to boot) on the Corporations and Local Governments The USA sticks it’s debt on the “people” Btw who also had no problems taking internal debt not backed by the US Federal Government turning it into external Sovereign debt
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  23. Difference Between Internal Debt and External Debt! The basic character of an internal debt is quite different from that of the external debt. In external debt, at the time of repayment there is a real transfer of resources. In case of internal debt, however, since it is borrowed from individuals and institutions within the country repayment will constitute only a re-distribution of resources without causing any change in the total resources of the community. There can, thus, be no direct money burden caused by internal debts since all payments cancel each other out in the aggregate community as a whole. Whatever is taxed from one section of the community servicing the debts is distributed among the bond-holders by way of repayment of loans and interest; and quite often, the tax-payer and the bond-holder may be the same person. At the most, to the extent that the incomes of tax-payers (in a sense, debtors) are reduced, so will the incomes of creditors/ bond-holders increase, but the aggregate position of the community will, nevertheless, remain the same. However, internal debt may involve a direct real burden on the community according to the nature of the series of transfer of incomes from tax payers to the public creditors. To the extent the tax-payers and the bond-holders are the same, the distribution of wealth will remain unaltered; hence there will not be any net real burden on the community. Yourarticlelibrary
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  24. Now you are just crying about investors who took a risk and making them whole 👇 Evergrande Tycoon Crossed a Red Line When Wealth Funds Ran Dry Police are fielding complaints by wealth product investors China authorities have less tolerance for losses by households China Evergrande Group wiped out international investors, roiled financial markets and left thousands of suppliers in the lurch. Yet it was the developer’s failure to pay households who invested in its wealth management products that may have provided the last straw for Chinese authorities. Bloomberg
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  25. Come on the people depositing the money will not lose their deposits . And you know the Chinese Government will even try to keep these wealth investor from losing their investments. If your asked me? The people investing their money in these wealth products took a risk especially since we know the Chinese Central Government cut off the money supply in 2010 I know because I started to dump out my Chinese Real Estate ETFs back then. A decade too early with hindsight You ask any westerner who takes a risk and invest their money. They are not going to be too sympathetic to someone who takes a risk with their money and is crying because they took losses You got to be a naive Chinese investor to think like that. But then again you know the Chinese Government will probably look to step in make these more well off Chinese investor whole again 👇 Evergrande Tycoon Crossed a Red Line When Wealth Funds Ran Dry Police are fielding complaints by wealth product investors China authorities have less tolerance for losses by households China Evergrande Group wiped out international investors, roiled financial markets and left thousands of suppliers in the lurch. Yet it was the developer’s failure to pay households who invested in its wealth management products that may have provided the last straw for Chinese authorities. Bloomberg
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  26. By my calculations 300 trillion in internal debt for the USA And I have not even included the personal household debt of 17.5 trillion or the derivatives bets. For example the nominal value of derivatives bets of the TOOBIGTOFAIL US Investment banks is around 200 to 220 trillion dollars Which I probably should start doing, since we are talking personal loans and mortgages etc with the Chinese
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