Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Can "New Productive Forces" Revive China's Growth?" video.

  1. They don’t need your capital You should have figured that out 4 years after you got there
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  2. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  3. China still has a few hundred million rural people who they expect will migrate to the cities But with AI/Automation where China is already 12 times that of the USA They will have less people needed to work in the future The Indian poster does not see it because Indians are still riding on top of their trains With a high speed train those people would fly off the top of them
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  4. I was over there in the early 90s Even then it was becoming too late These days they don’t need your money as their Central Government spent the last 14 years trying to deflate their overheated real estate markets and are trying to get their people these days to invest in critical technologies of the future Why would they want your investment anyways as the west makes noise to decouple You would still be looking to invest in labour intensive factory formula Or looking to invest in the Junk Bonds of the Property Developers who had that money flow cut off to them in 2010 👇 Project Syndicate The value of global China China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate. In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040. McKinsey
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  5. These days the west especially the USA is openly hostile to anything Chinese Yet they should open their arms to your investment Their people are adding around 2.6 trillion a year to their savings With no real options left to invest that money as their Government cracks down on Real Estate and you think they want a influx of money from the west 👇 Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position. China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD). Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie.But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets – many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative – where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation. As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta) SCMP
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  6.  @badbad-cat  Most Sophisticated Foreign investors are salty the Chinese Government didn’t save them Btw did my replies get deleted in this thread? 👇 the people really getting hurt these days are the “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” in 2010 cut off from money Property Developers started using Shadow Banks really just well off Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown and regulate Then these Developers started selling Wealth Management investment vehicles to the well off Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to flog their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where these Junk bonds really started to take off in popularity these last few years (Btw Property Developer gets a cash infusion what do you think they did with that cash???) The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Property Developers Companies/Junk Bonds I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China as an investment option in the late 80s during my investment banking days My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade They didnt listen 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  7. Chinese Government maybe cracking down on real estate and speculation (Better than 70% of the people in their urban real estate markets buying their 4th or 5th home right about now. As a few hundred million rural migrants still expected to head to the cities can’t find affordable housing) But they still have a 820 billion dollar trade surplus with the world and their people are still adding about 2.6 trillion a year to their savings even with a crackdown Without investment options like real estate Their Government is pushing their people to invest into the critical technologies of the future instead Critical Technologies of the future where China already leads the world in 37 of 44 of them So they will pile even more money into these industries and supercharge them even more Yellen and her successors are going to have to keep going to China and beg China not to dump their new high tech products at cheap prices on the world
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