Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "The Wall Street Journal"
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Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis?
By Wade Shepard
* Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them.
* A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable.
Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
"Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm.
Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants.
This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years.
Reuters
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Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days.
But they gained 53 million service sector jobs
33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs
So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added saving from imported goods
did the average American Invest,save, or even throw that money under the mattress?????
No
they spent those added earnings, and then borrowed to spend some more
👇
The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs
It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services.
Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal.
Forbes
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Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space – enough to completely cover Madrid, these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China’s new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not intent to use?
* A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible amount of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable.
Although they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form, which is often preferred by investors. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn’t need to mold a piece of gold into something usable like a piece of jewelry for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn’t need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
“Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly,” said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer amount of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1% or so) is often not worth the hassle — especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged.
According to Mark Tanner, over 80% of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don’t have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn’t as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Thevagabondjourney
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This guy best explained what happened
👇
Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis?
By Wade Shepard
* Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them.
* A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable.
Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
"Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm.
Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants.
This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years.
Reuters
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@kenso888
many are from failed ride hailing companies where there are still 300 left In China
No one is going to buy a used EV when they are obsolete, new EVs are affordable and have better tech
And for sure no one is going to start up a new Ride hailing company, using the EVs from a failed ride hailing company
Better to just recycle them
👇
China is way ahead
China is the world's biggest EV producer and market. It's also a leader in battery recycling.
China's EV battery recycling market is about 10 times larger than the EU's, Christoph Neef, a scientist at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany, told DW.
China, a major producer and processor of key battery raw materials like lithium and graphite, could replace lithium obtained by mining with recycled lithium in EV batteries from 2059 onward, according to a study by the University of Münster in Germany.
By comparison, Europe and the US are expected to reach that milestone only after 2070. As far as nickel is concerned, China can probably meet demand through recycling in 2046 at the earliest, with Europe following in 2058 and the US from 2064 onward.
DW
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This guy best explains it
👇
Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis?
By Wade Shepard
* Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them.
* A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable.
Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
"Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm.
Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants.
This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years.
Reuters
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Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis?
By Wade Shepard
* Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them.
* A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable.
Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
"Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm.
Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants.
This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years.
Reuters
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The other option is rich Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now….
China could easily over heat the markets/economy and have another decade of bubbles
The Chinese did that in 2008 as the US subprime prime crisis crashed the world markets
And put 27 million out of work and /shuttered 100 thousand factories in China
In response the Chinese Government got the banks to loan out 580 billion dollars
That created overheated bubbles where their Government had to come in and shutdown and regulate
That 580 billion created a big ball of money that went From Real Estate, Shadow Banks, Underground economy, Commodities, Stocks, Bonds and then back to Real Estate
In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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@Polit_Burro
s why did you pick 1979?
1972 Nixon went to China to get them to open up their economy
Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days.
But they gained 53 million service sector jobs
33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs
So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added savings from imported goods
did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress????
No
they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more
👇
The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs
It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services.
Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal.
Forbes
1
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@bigmedge
Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days.
But they gained 53 million service sector jobs
33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs
So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added savings from imported goods
did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress????
No
they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more
👇
The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs
It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services.
Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal.
Forbes
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@TheWatcher111 the world is not the USA
And when the USA defaults on its debt people are going to want to dump those dollars and hope to be able to buy anything else with it
👇
China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
JANUARY 9, 2024
Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
OxfordGoldGroup
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@abdulaziz-montana
Cold-area car testing industry heats up in NE China
Xinhua | Updated: 2024-01-17 14:20
* HARBIN -- With the temperature outside nearing minus 25 degrees Celsius, Jin Lei could recently be seen driving down a test road on a frozen river, turning and braking occasionally as snow flew up behind the wheels.
* Wang Yulong, director of the Heihe municipal industry and information technology bureau, said that the city has 12 car testing enterprises and more than 120 testing roads, which can meet test requirements in different conditions.
Wang said that Heihe has also opened facilities including a reception service center for car testing enterprises, and introduced regulations for cold-area car testing industry services in Heihe.
Statistics show that the city's cold-area car testing business volume accounts for more than 80 percent of China's total.
According to Chen Gang, an expert from the China Society of Automotive Engineers, the number of new vehicle models is increasing, and the research and development cycle is becoming shorter, which provides more space for the development of Heihe's cold-area car testing industry.
The booming industry has also injected vitality into local economic development.
Data shows that during the annual car testing season, Heihe's car testing industry generates hundreds of millions of yuan in revenue for sectors such as accommodation, catering, retail and transportation.
China Daily
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@realharo
Nvidia cuts China AI chip prices amid competition from Huawei-
Reuters
Among the three, the H20, which is the most powerful, was seeing subdued demand in China, and in some cases, was being sold at an over 10% discount to a similar offering from Huawei- the Ascend 910B, the Reuters report said.
The Ascend 910B was also seeing substantially more orders than the H20 from state-backed enterprises, Reuters said, citing limited government data. This came following a mandate from Beijing for state enterprises to use China-made silicon.
The 910B is the most advanced Chinese AI chip, and has shot up in popularity in the country following U.S. sanctions that attempted to block China’s access to the latest AI advancements.
Its popularity in China presents more headwinds for Nvidia’s business in the country. The chipmaker has struggled to maintain its foothold in Chinese markets following the U.S. sanctions.
During its first quarter earnings this week, the company warned that China was becoming an increasingly competitive market, and that the firm’s data center revenue in China fell “significantly.”
Steep discounts on the H20 also present more margin pressure for Nvidia.
Finance Yahoo
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@realharo
China’s AI Implementation Is Edging Ahead Of The US
Craig S. Smith
Contributor
Craig S. Smith is a former correspondent and executive at The New York Times. He is host of the podcast Eye on A.I.
Jan 14, 2023,
China and the U.S. have reached parity in the development of artificial intelligence, but China’s implementation of the technology in products and services is likely to edge ahead in 2023.
As Kaifu Lee, a keen observer of AI development in China has put it, “we're now in the age of AI implementation.” While the West, the U.S. and Canada in particular, will remain ahead in AI research, those Western advances are quickly adopted in China where the massive market, a surfeit of young engineers, government support and a cutthroat entrepreneurial culture are driving industrial innovation in AI.
“The digital and real economies are accelerating their integration,” said Baidu’s Chief Technology Officer, Haifeng Wang, who is also Head of Baidu Research.
Forbes
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Basically many in the west are complaining because the Communist Chinese are cracking down on property speculation in China….
Yet cheering on our own crackdown on speculators here with interest rate hikes, empty home taxes, speculation taxes, and foreign buyer taxes which many seem to be Chinese investors who buy those monster homes and leave them empty
Without this crackdown The other option is 70% of the Chinese in their real estate markets buying their 4th or 5th home right about now with a few hundred million rural migrants, migrating to the city without affordable homes
In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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@Show_what_I_Love retail buying is a factor in prices being pushed up. But it is that buying in conjunction with Central bank buying which is the biggest factor
As the Chinese Central Bank’s has been secretly hoarding Gold apparently instead of keeping USD or buying US debt
👇
Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
JANUARY 9, 2024
Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
OxfordGoldGroup
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@ChandanMishra-ql1bi
Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days.
But they gained 53 million service sector jobs
33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs
So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added saving from imported goods
did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress????
No
they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more
👇
The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs
It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services.
Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal.
Forbes
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What most people don’t get?
Is it is US multinationals making the lion share of those profits inflating the trade deficit between China to the USA
Where Chinese companies mostly trade with their Belt and Road country partners these days
These US multinationals are the ones sending you that junk
These US multinationals are still using the same highly polluting labour intensive factories formula.
As they were using more and more illegal labour smuggled in from South East Asia.
Or more and more automation in their wholly owned factories in China these days
These are the same companies who got those trump Corporate tax cuts you for sure cheered about
Same companies based in China who derived 392 billion in sales into the Chinese domestic markets in 2018 when trump started his trade war
Same companies averaging 20 to 40% of their earnings from China whose high flying stocks are in your 401k/Pensions
Same companies who the American farmer and consumer were sacrificed. So the USA could try and get “more” or “better” access for the US multinationals, into those Chinese Domestic markets during the trade war
Same companies whose HQ is in a North American city you can easily go stand outside and protest at….
Why didn’t China pull the nuclear trade option and boot these US companies you might ask?
They don’t believe in a zero sum game type of thinking
As I can show you during the trade war.
China didn’t pull out their big trade weapons, in fact they were lowering tariffs to most countries not raising them
👇
Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win
Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position.
China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD).
Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie.
But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets – many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative – where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation.
As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta)
SCMP
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