Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "The Wall Street Journal" channel.

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  4. Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? By Wade Shepard * Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years. Reuters
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  10. Yup China isn’t playing ball Our top of the food chain 1%ters and their multinational corporations Don’t want a closed off or slowing China They want those Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now. They want their companies in China lending that money and selling those goods and services to them. Hopefully get them to spend those high saving and then borrow to spend more like we did in the west. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  12. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem This why they intentionally slowed down their economy In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  14. ⁠ Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days. But they gained 53 million service sector jobs 33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added saving from imported goods did the average American Invest,save, or even throw that money under the mattress????? No they spent those added earnings, and then borrowed to spend some more 👇 The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services. Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal. Forbes
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  34. Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space – enough to completely cover Madrid, these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China’s new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not intent to use? * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible amount of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Although they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form, which is often preferred by investors. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn’t need to mold a piece of gold into something usable like a piece of jewelry for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn’t need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. “Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly,” said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer amount of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1% or so) is often not worth the hassle — especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80% of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don’t have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn’t as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Thevagabondjourney
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  42. This guy best explained what happened 👇 Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? By Wade Shepard * Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years. Reuters
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  46. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem This why they intentionally slowed down their economy In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  49. This slowdown is a slowdown engineered by the Chinese Government itself In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  59. This guy best explains it 👇 Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? By Wade Shepard * Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years. Reuters
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  61. China isn’t playing ball Our top of the food chain 1%ters and their multinational corporations Don’t want a closed off or slowing China They want those Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now. They want their companies in China lending that money and selling those goods and services to them. Hopefully get them to spend those high saving and then borrow to spend more like we did in the west. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  68. China leads the world in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  74. Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? By Wade Shepard * Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. * A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China's new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it's common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won't be able to inhabit them for many years. Reuters
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  76. the Chinese are averaging over 820 billion a year in trade surpluses with the world. Most of that trade, even if it is not directly with America, will be in USD yet they are buying Gold with their surpluses instead, and have held at that 800 billion to 1 trillion in US Sovereign Debt for a few decades now Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 The Chinese Government is actually pushing their people away from investing in real estate, and to invest in technology/industries instead. (What’s 4 houses vs 5 This is where China leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future already As they will pile even more money into these future technologies My prediction is the Chinese Government will have to step in and regulate yet another overheated sector (technology) in the future Where Blinken,Yellen & their successors will have to keep going to China to beg them not to dump their cheap high tech onto the rest of world Most people have no clue what’s coming, as they supercharge their exports with their new innovative high tech products Most likely where they store that added wealth or to seek save haven for I’ll be gold 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
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  84. The other option is rich Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now…. China could easily over heat the markets/economy and have another decade of bubbles The Chinese did that in 2008 as the US subprime prime crisis crashed the world markets And put 27 million out of work and /shuttered 100 thousand factories in China In response the Chinese Government got the banks to loan out 580 billion dollars That created overheated bubbles where their Government had to come in and shutdown and regulate That 580 billion created a big ball of money that went From Real Estate, Shadow Banks, Underground economy, Commodities, Stocks, Bonds and then back to Real Estate In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  87.  @Polit_Burro  s why did you pick 1979? 1972 Nixon went to China to get them to open up their economy Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days. But they gained 53 million service sector jobs 33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added savings from imported goods did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress???? No they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more 👇 The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services. Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal. Forbes
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  88.  @bigmedge  Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days. But they gained 53 million service sector jobs 33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added savings from imported goods did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress???? No they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more 👇 The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services. Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal. Forbes
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  102.  @PM21-s2w as for the China slowdown Time to learn what we are up against instead of being a 5th columnist American People like you fooled people into thinking China was going to crash for over 30 years now In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  119. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem Thus why they intentionally slowed down their economy But it’s a deflationary spiral!!!!! In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  121. The other option if you’re he Central Government did not step in???? Would be rich Chinese buying their 3rd and 4th homes about right now In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  135. Basically many in the west are complaining because the Communist Chinese are cracking down on property speculation in China…. Yet cheering on our own crackdown on speculators here with interest rate hikes, empty home taxes, speculation taxes, and foreign buyer taxes which many seem to be Chinese investors who buy those monster homes and leave them empty Without this crackdown The other option is 70% of the Chinese in their real estate markets buying their 4th or 5th home right about now with a few hundred million rural migrants, migrating to the city without affordable homes In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  163. Btw the people really getting hurt these days are the “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” in 2010 folks started using Shadow Banks really just Rich Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown and regulate Then these Developers started flogging Wealth Management investment vehicles to the rich Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to sell their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where these Junk bonds really started to take off in popularity these last few years (Btw Developer gets a cash infusion what do you think they did with that cash???) The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Companies I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China as an investment option in the late 80s during my investment banking days My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  171.  @ChandanMishra-ql1bi  Sure the Americans may have lost 7 million manufacturing jobs from the height of their manufacturing days. But they gained 53 million service sector jobs 33 million of them higher paying jobs than their manufacturing jobs So with more jobs, more higher paying jobs, and added saving from imported goods did the average American Invest, save, or even throw that money under the mattress???? No they spent those added earnings, and thenborrowed to spend some more 👇 The U.S. Lost 7 Million Manufacturing Jobs--And Added 33 Million Higher-Paying Service Jobs It’s also nonsense. The truth is that America has lost some 7 million manufacturing jobs and added some 53 million jobs in services. This is just what happens with advanced economies–it’s easier to increase productivity in manufacturing than it is in services, this is the heart of Baumol’s Cost Disease. As it was easier to increase productivity in agriculture through mechanising it than it was in manufacturing. Thus, over time, the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture falls, so too does the proportion in manufacturing. And given that services (with a couple of small adjustments for mining, construction and utilities) is the name we give to all the rest of the economy therefore an increasing portion of the labour force ends up in services. Further, of those 53 million new jobs some 62% of them were in higher paying occupations than those “high paying good jobs” in manufacturing we lost. Yes, really, 33 million higher paying jobs came along to replace those 7 million lost. Which does, when you look at those numbers properly, seem like rather a good deal. Forbes
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  175. He is saying cut off from money flow from the Central Government for 14 years in 2010 folks started using Shadow Banks really just Rich Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown or regulate Then these Developers started flogging Wealth Management investment vehicles to the rich Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to sell their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where this really started to take off these last few years The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Companies I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China for investment in the late 80s My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade 👇 As the Pace of China’s Junk Bond Sales Grows, So Do Worries BY NEIL GOUGH MARCH 28, 2013 2:53 PM The junk bond market in China took off this year. Although the deals still account for a small share of the global total, Chinese companies have sold $8 billion of high-yield bonds to overseas investors since January. That’s up from $2.3 billion during the same period a year earlier, according to figures from Dealogic. “Bond markets are booming because companies have had difficulty getting the level of debt they want out of banks onshore or offshore, and in tapping equity markets,” said Nick Gronow, a senior managing director at FTI Consulting in Hong Kong and an expert in Chinese bankruptcies. “So bonds have really taken up the slack.” NYT
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  182. What most people don’t get? Is it is US multinationals making the lion share of those profits inflating the trade deficit between China to the USA Where Chinese companies mostly trade with their Belt and Road country partners these days These US multinationals are the ones sending you that junk These US multinationals are still using the same highly polluting labour intensive factories formula. As they were using more and more illegal labour smuggled in from South East Asia. Or more and more automation in their wholly owned factories in China these days These are the same companies who got those trump Corporate tax cuts you for sure cheered about Same companies based in China who derived 392 billion in sales into the Chinese domestic markets in 2018 when trump started his trade war Same companies averaging 20 to 40% of their earnings from China whose high flying stocks are in your 401k/Pensions Same companies who the American farmer and consumer were sacrificed. So the USA could try and get “more” or “better” access for the US multinationals, into those Chinese Domestic markets during the trade war Same companies whose HQ is in a North American city you can easily go stand outside and protest at…. Why didn’t China pull the nuclear trade option and boot these US companies you might ask? They don’t believe in a zero sum game type of thinking As I can show you during the trade war. China didn’t pull out their big trade weapons, in fact they were lowering tariffs to most countries not raising them 👇 Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position. China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD). Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie. But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets – many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative – where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation. As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta) SCMP
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  197. Like I said the people really getting hurt these days are the “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” The well off Chinese investors investing in those wealth management vehicles will get a portion.of their money back Only a naive person who takes a risk with their money and expects their Government to cover those losses But that’s what their Government will do unlike where the USA would make those Foreign Investors whole … which we saw them do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt much of that private internal debt held by foreigners in 2010 cut off from money Property Developers started using Shadow Banks really just well off Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown and regulate Then these Developers started selling Wealth Management investment vehicles to the well off Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to flog their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where these Junk bonds really started to take off in popularity these last few years (Btw Property Developer gets a cash infusion what do you think they did with that cash???) The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Property Developers Companies/Junk Bonds I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China as an investment option in the late 80s during my investment banking days My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade They didnt listen 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  198. Chinese ain’t covering the Property Developers Junk Bonds unlike the USA taking internal Agency debt not backed by the US Government, and Turning it into external Sovereign Debt . Backed by the US Government and the US People 👇 As politicians call for taxpayer bailouts and a government takeover of troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, FreedomWorks would like to point out that a bailout is a transfer of possibly hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars to sophisticated investors and governments overseas. The top five foreign holders of Freddie and Fannie long-term debt are China, Japan, the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. In total foreign investors hold over $1.3 trillion in these agency bonds, according to the U.S. Treasury’s most recent “Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities.” FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe commented, “The prospectus for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government. That’s why investors holding agency bonds already receive a significant risk premium over Treasuries.” “A bailout at this stage would be the worst possible outcome for American taxpayers and mortgage holders, who have been paying a risk premium to these foreign investors. It would change the rules of the game retroactively and would directly subsidize the risks taken by sophisticated foreign investors.” “A bailout of GSE bondholders would be perhaps the greatest taxpayer rip-off in American history. It is bad economics and you can be sure it is terrible politics.” FreedomWorks
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  200.  @gregparrott  even if those numbers were to be believed The Chinese people are adding 2.6 trillion a year to their wealth the solution should be simple in China the last few years property developers went on a building spree in higher end homes So the people they owe homes to. Can be given one of those higher end homes (although the home might not be in a city/province they like… but beats getting nothing back… on a risk they willingly took) The remaining homes can be sold at a discount to the few hundred million rural migrants still expected to move to the cities And the wealthy Chinese/sophisticated foreign investors who took the biggest hit these last few years (You invest more money into overheated market with Property Developers? They naturally do what they do best they build even more) Well they get back a few more pennies on their investment Cut off from money flow by the Chinese Central Government for over 12 years starting in 2010 Chinese Property Developers “Junk Bonds” they were flogging, these last few years suddenly started to become a hot commodity by “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” The general consensus was the Chinese Central Government would backstop these junk bonds I actually had a few old colleagues reach out to me for advice from back in my investment banking days.. Since they knew I had been researching China investments since the late 1980s My reply to them was “Not when their Government has cut off the money flow to these companies for over a decade” They did not listen….🤷 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  202. You can live in those houses Plus id advise you to see how much of these companies in your 401k/Pension get revenue from those Chinese domestic markets In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  211. Working for an investment banking wing of a National Bank here in Canada I was tasked with researching investment opportunities in China. 36 years ago as we felt DotCom was becoming a bubble. It was my job to know everything and anything about the country that would affect our Investments. Right down to going there to live for a spell. This allowed us to profit greatly and myself to retire at the age of 32 I just never stopped researching China Like I said I personally dumped out of my Chinese investments by 2011 after it became clear even before 2010 their Central Government was going to start cutting off money flow to the Real Estate Markets. So people had atleast 14 years warning they were investing in a bubble As for my rantings you wouldn’t believe the amount of information I have compiled. Why should I keep it to myself? Especially with people who are talking about China getting their information only from MSM. Who btw are the same type of people who would never trust a word MSM tells them unless it’s about China In fact I warned about Communist China back in the 80s anyone talking about China within the confines of their borders was clueless How their people and Companies were already going out to areas like SE Asia, countries like Vietnam in the 80s Where the Chinese dominated their economies. And these Countries were dependent on the Chinese economy where recently our western companies thought they could head to over to SE Asia or Vietnam after trump started his trade vvar in 2018 🙄🙄🙄 Where inside joke back then???? Was there was even more Chinese content in Vietnamese made products than there were in Chinese made products
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  223. No he is right the Chinese Government started to crack down in real estate development in 2010 If they didn’t? right about now???? You would have people buying their 4th and 5th homes. While a few hundred million rural migrants still expected to migrate to the cities couldn’t afford a home in the cities they move to In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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