Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Why China’s Deflation Is More Dangerous Than High Inflation | WSJ" video.

  1. Yup China isn’t playing ball Our top of the food chain 1%ters and their multinational corporations Don’t want a closed off or slowing China They want those Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now. They want their companies in China lending that money and selling those goods and services to them. Hopefully get them to spend those high saving and then borrow to spend more like we did in the west. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  2. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem This why they intentionally slowed down their economy In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  3. Welfare reforms since the late 1990s have included unemployment insurance, medical insurance, workers’ compensation insurance, maternity benefits, communal pension funds, individual pension accounts, universal health care.[4] Furthermore, for many of the minority groups, there are some benefits available.[5 Wikipedia
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  4. Without deflating slowing down their real estate markets and economy They would be faced with some people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now While a few hundred million. Poorer rural folks can’t afford to buy a home in the cities they migrate to While some people have fallen through the cracks the majority of the people complaining are usually the more well of Chinese Talking about how they are having a harder time keeping up on their 3rd and 4th home purchase It’s a biased narrative as our Central Banks were raising rates looking looking for a bump up in unemployment figures. As our own real estate has cooled as we invite speculation, empty home and foreign owner taxes Where China is going to crash as their wages come down
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  5. The real irony is while we see visions of doom and gloom in China as they slow their economy crack down on real estate speculation We argue about housing, be a right here Call for those higher interest rates speculation, empty home or foreigner ownership property taxes etc etc as we cry about consumer staples inflation
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  6. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  7. Yes China population won’t starrt to decline until 2050 They have 12 times the automation in their factories already over the USA And most people don’t know MADE in China was powered by illegal workers from SE Asia workers paid to work for the North Korean Government, before many of these factories started to automate That’s because most Chinese don’t want to work a factory floor anymore Plus the biggest reason for the slowdown was their Government was cracking down on speculation too many buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in 2018 Be too many buying their 4th or 5th homes right about now The real issue was a few hundred million rural migrants are still expected to move to the cities but the developers were building too many higher end homes for investment. And not the affordable homes these migrants will need
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  8. was watching a documentary some westerner who had come back to the poorest village in China 1 year later As he walks in on a Senior Social worker berating 5 or 6 social workers because a deadline was fast approaching and they had a quotas to meet getting people in the village above a poverty line or they all including this Senior Social worker would get demoted/fired Where they had to make sure the villagers were signed up for some State healthcare plan where the State paid 95% of the bills Then this guys follows one social worker as he shows him the newly paved roads and new houses and the donated furnishings in a home Even with all that you could get a sense of fear and worry in this guy demeanour. As we find out he was some Government banking official who was demoted to this job And the only way you move back up is to meet your deadlines and quotas Is this a better system than we have in the west? Depends on if our Government is willing to build roads and houses for people with little expected return You can YouTube search it if you want 👇 Revisiting China's poorest village
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  9. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  10. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem This why they intentionally slowed down their economy In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  11. This slowdown is a slowdown engineered by the Chinese Government itself In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  12. Other than his pricing on a milkshake being off to you He is pretty much arguing what you are arguing
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  13. Even though China has invested trillions in their belt and road partner countries China exports are up 7.1% In 2024 And it still has a 820 billion plus dollar a year trade surplus with the world the last 2 years Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
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  14. China isn’t playing ball Our top of the food chain 1%ters and their multinational corporations Don’t want a closed off or slowing China They want those Chinese buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now. They want their companies in China lending that money and selling those goods and services to them. Hopefully get them to spend those high saving and then borrow to spend more like we did in the west. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  15. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  16. I bet you are the same type of person cheering on empty home taxes, speculation taxes, foreign owner taxes, while crying about consumer staples inflation where you live Even with the hike in interest rates because of it they were looking at key unemployment figures Because those numbers were expected to jump up in order for that inflation to go down But for the longest time people were buying debt like US Sovereign debt at near zero bound interest rates. Basically people were paying the US Government to borrow their money 👇 The End of Zero Interest Rates Aug 13, 2023 JEFFREY FRANKEL As recently as 2022, most monetary economists expected interest rates to remain low indefinitely. While many analysts still expect near-zero interest rates to return, they will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future, making it harder for governments to service their debts . CAMBRIDGE – What a difference two years make. In 2021, when interest rates were near zero in the United States and the United Kingdom and slightly negative in the eurozone and Japan, the consensus was that they would remain low indefinitely. Project Syndicate
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  17. Actually it was caused by the more well off Chinese people investment into these wealth management products And the last few years “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” buying these Property Developers junks bonds that they were flogging as they became a hot commodity these last few years The Chinese Government/Banks cut off money flow to these Property Developers in 2010 Not that hard to see if you are a Property Developer and you get an influx of cash? You build
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  18. China is the bad guy The western elite want China to keep growing not shut itself off or slowdown its economy on purpose
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  19. Yup China cracks down on property speculation China is going to crash Prices start falling because of slowed growth deflation China is going to crash Let’s just pretend those interest rate hikes in the west Didn’t affect the property prices and lower inflation and were intended to cause job losses
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  20. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  21. These Chinese probably figured people buying their 4th and 5th homes right about now when 300 million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities would be a bigger problem Thus why they intentionally slowed down their economy But it’s a deflationary spiral!!!!! In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  22. I would say some Chinese buying their 4th or 5th homes While 300 hundred million rural Chinese are still expected to move to the cities but can’t find affordable homes Isn’t the best kind of inflation
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  23. I bet you are the same type of person cheering on empty home taxes, speculation taxes, foreign owner taxes, while crying about consumer staples inflation where you live Even with the hike in interest rates because of it they were looking at key unemployment figures Because those numbers were expected to jump up in order for that inflation to go down But for the longest time people were buying debt like US Sovereign debt at near zero bound interest rates. Basically people were paying the US Government to borrow their money 👇 The End of Zero Interest Rates Aug 13, 2023 JEFFREY FRANKEL As recently as 2022, most monetary economists expected interest rates to remain low indefinitely. While many analysts still expect near-zero interest rates to return, they will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future, making it harder for governments to service their debts . CAMBRIDGE – What a difference two years make. In 2021, when interest rates were near zero in the United States and the United Kingdom and slightly negative in the eurozone and Japan, the consensus was that they would remain low indefinitely. Project Syndicate
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  24. I bet you are the same type of person cheering on empty home taxes, speculation taxes, foreign owner taxes, while crying about consumer staples inflation where you live Even with the hike in interest rates because of it they were looking at key unemployment figures Because those numbers were expected to jump up in order for that inflation to go down But for the longest time people were buying debt like US Sovereign debt at near zero bound interest rates. Basically people were paying the US Government to borrow their money 👇 The End of Zero Interest Rates Aug 13, 2023 JEFFREY FRANKEL As recently as 2022, most monetary economists expected interest rates to remain low indefinitely. While many analysts still expect near-zero interest rates to return, they will likely remain elevated for the foreseeable future, making it harder for governments to service their debts . CAMBRIDGE – What a difference two years make. In 2021, when interest rates were near zero in the United States and the United Kingdom and slightly negative in the eurozone and Japan, the consensus was that they would remain low indefinitely. Project Syndicate
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  25. Chinese EV cars sales are up year over year and will be up this year It’s not just price most already know their car will be obsolete as soon as it comes off the assembly line
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  26. Lots of false narratives on China these days, I’ve been researching, invested in and lived in China on and off starting in the 1980s Feel free to use anything I post This will also help the argument on those 1%ters and their corporations 👇 Project Syndicate The value of global China China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate. In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040. McKinsey
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  27. Btw the people really getting hurt these days are the “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” in 2010 folks started using Shadow Banks really just Rich Chinese investors Giving loans to these Developers The Central Government came into shutdown and regulate Then these Developers started flogging Wealth Management investment vehicles to the rich Chinese Which the Government came into shutdown and regulate But then these Developers started to sell their Junk Bonds to “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” Where these Junk bonds really started to take off in popularity these last few years (Btw Developer gets a cash infusion what do you think they did with that cash???) The General consensus was the Chinese Government would backstop these Companies I had a few reach out for my opinion since they know I started researching China as an investment option in the late 80s during my investment banking days My reply was “Not when the Central Government was cutting off money flow to these developers for over a decade 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  28. A with a slowdown engineered by their Central Government you are going to get unemployment Isn’t that what our North American central banks tried to do with their attempts to cool inflation The Chinese could be juicing up their economy right about now and we would have 70% of the people in their real estate markets, buying their 4th or 5th home right about now in their cities While a few hundred million rural Chinese migrants still expected to be moving to the cities by 2030 can’t find affordable housing Plus these kids can run home to mommy and daddy, like we have most kids doing in the west these days The irony is when Chinese immigrants come push up our home prices here??? we cry for some speculation /empty home/ foreign investor taxes
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  29. No he is right the Chinese Government started to crack down in real estate development in 2010 If they didn’t? right about now???? You would have people buying their 4th and 5th homes. While a few hundred million rural migrants still expected to migrate to the cities couldn’t afford a home in the cities they move to In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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