Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "WSJ News" channel.

  1. 4
  2.  @Kevin-fq3zh  In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
    3
  3. 3
  4. 2
  5. 1
  6. 1
  7.  @Kevin-fq3zh  go do some research Look at how biased you are the Chinese are going after real estate/speculation Which I bet you are complaining about high real estate prices the west 90% of Chinese families own a home 80% free of encumbrances Sure the Chinese cracked down on real estate speculators where some first time home buyers would be hurt But their Government has been cracking down on real estate since 2010 did you even bother to wonder why these Property Developers were filing on US and Hong Kong courts???? Cut off from money flow by the Chinese Central Government for over 12 years starting in 2010 Chinese Property Developers “Junk Bonds” they were flogging, these last few years suddenly started to become a hot commodity by “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” What do you do as a Property Developer who just got a huge influx of cash? You build The general consensus was the Chinese Central Government would backstop these junk bonds I actually had a few old colleagues reach out to me for advice from back in my investment banking days.. Since they knew I had been researching China investments since the late 1980s My reply to them was “Not when their Government has cut off the money flow to these companies for over a decade” They did not listen….🤷 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
    1
  8. 1
  9.  @Kevin-fq3zh  That’s because even these last few years as China has invested a few trillion (hidden loans included) in their belt and road partner countries China exports are up 7.1% for the first few months of 2024 And it still has a 820 billion plus dollar a year trade surplus with the world the last 2 years Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people have added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023 But with no other viable investment options left these days Their Government is actually pushing their people to invest in technology/industries instead Where China already leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future already As they pile even more money into these technologies My prediction is the Chinese Government will have to step in and regulate yet another overheated sector (technology) in the future Where Blinken,Yellen & their successors will have to keep going to China to beg them not to dump their cheap high tech onto the rest of world 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
    1
  10. 1