Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "China Ghost Cities: A Myth?" video.

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  2.  @palirvin1871  who says these homes have to have people in them? But there is an easy fix with the Chinese Government crackdown on real estate m/speculation even after 14 year warning??? The people who are owed homes by these developers can take a higher end home And the few hundred million rural folks still expected to move to the cities Can buy these homes built by Developers at a discounted price 👇 Do China’s ghost cities offer a solution to Europe’s migrant crisis? Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space — enough to completely cover Madrid — these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China’s new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not intent to use? All over the world, the value of property extends beyond the utilitarian function of being a place to live. Real estate is also a vital economic entity that presents an avenue for investment as well as a way of storing wealth — a use of property that is taken to the extreme in China. “Many Chinese investors are buying property based on expectations of appreciation, and that it is a solid, safe investment that they can easily understand,” said Mark Tanner, the founding director of China Skinny, a Shanghai based marketing research firm. A full 39 percent of individual wealth in China is kept in housing, and, according to Nomura, 21 percentof China’s urban households possess more than one home. The reasons for this desire to invest in housing often results from a lack of better options. China’s banks pay negative interest and are becoming even more unattractive with the recent wave of currency devaluation. Wealth management products are not fully developed and are highly regulated by the government, and the stock market is viewed to be about as secure as a casino. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not an financial drain on their owners. Reuters
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  3.  @palirvin1871  The real problem these last few years Cut off from money flow by the Chinese Central Government for over 12 years starting in 2010 Chinese Property Developers “Junk Bonds” they were flogging, these last few years suddenly started to become a hot commodity by “Sophisticated Foreign Investors” The general consensus was the Chinese Central Government would backstop these junk bonds I actually had a few old colleagues reach out to me for advice from back in my investment banking days.. Since they knew I had been researching China investments since the late 1980s My reply to them was “Not when their Government has cut off the money flow to these companies for over a decade” They did not listen….🤷 Btw growing up in the construction industry then you should know A Property Developer who gets an influx of cash…what do you do??? You do what you do best…. you build 👇 A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China Bloomberg) -- From afar, China Evergrande Group had all the makings of a killer distressed-debt trade: $19 billion in defaulted offshore bonds; $242 billion in assets; and a government that appeared determined to prop up the country’s faltering property market. So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns. What they got instead over the course of the next two years is a harsh lesson in the dangers of trying to bargain with the Communist Party. The talks are now dead — a Hong Kong court has ordered Evergrande’s liquidation, and the bonds are nearly worthless, trading in secondary markets at just 1 cent on the dollar. Bloomberg
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  4.  @palirvin1871  Anyways with their engineered slowdown (or else70% of the people in their city real estate markets would be buying their 3rd 4th or 5th homes right about now…. as a few hundred million rural migrants can’t find an affordable home as they migrate to the cities) And even though these last few years China has been investing a few trillion (hidden loans included) in their belt and road partner countries China exports are up 7.1% for the first few months of 2024 And it still averages about 820 billion plus dollar a year trade surplus with the world the last 2 years Even though their Central Government is cracking down in real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people still added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023. (An increase of 8.5%) But with no other viable investment options left these days The Chinese Government is actually pushing their people away from investing in real estate, and to invest in technology/industries instead … what difference does owning 4 homes instead of 5 make This is where China leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future already As they will pile even more money into these future technologies My prediction is the Chinese Government will have to step in and regulate yet another overheated sector (technology) in the future Where Blinken,Yellen & their successors will have to keep going to China to beg them not to dump their cheap high tech onto the rest of world Most people have no clue what’s coming, as they supercharge their exports with their new innovative high tech products 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
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  5.  @palirvin1871  Do China's ghost cities offer a solution to Europe's migrant crisis? Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space - enough to completely cover Madrid - these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China's new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them. A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn't need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn't need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable. "Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly," said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm. Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle - especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don't have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn't as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term. Reuters
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