Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "US sanctions against China are putting global firms to a decision: abandon China, or leave the US" video.

  1.  @MrNickjberry you have no clue what you are talking about In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
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  2.  @MrNickjberry  The Chinese had “virtually” no chip making ability/foundries 6 years ago thanks to the USA who did the job for the Chinese Where their Government was trying to get their people to switch to homegrown chips before the sanctions China is now expected to take over those legacy chip markets If the USA was smarter instead of cutting off China from semiconductor chips and equipment for manufacturing They should have themselves and their allies, lowered prices even more, and dump even more chips on China Instead their idea was to force the hand of Chinese people at the time content with cheap imported chips. Hope they could not innovate When there is now a 7 volume 27 book series on what China invented first that says the world copied from them And China leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future 🙄 At one point China was importing over 300 billion in chips a year Now they will probably be exporting around 200 billion dollars worth of their own homegrown chips per year, within the products they export 👇 How Close Is China to World Dominance in Legacy Semiconductors? 27-02-2024 | By Paul Whytock * Bread and Butter Technology Obviously, China would like to be a major player when it comes to high-end sophisticated semiconductor devices, but that doesn’t mean they are not interested in the bread-and-butter end of the market, particularly when it comes to legacy products. In fact, they are very interested in the legacy market, and there are some very good reasons why. Legacy devices make up a huge amount of global chip sales. Most chips manufactured today are not advanced chips but legacy chips, and around 71% of devices * China's Aggressive Expansion in the Semiconductor Industry In September 2023, Reuters reported that China was set to launch a new state-backed fund aimed at raising about €43bn to support its chip industry, and according to research analysts, the Rhodium Group, in less than ten years, China is expected to domestically add nearly as much 50–180nm wafer manufacturing capacity as the rest of the World. The views of industry analysts and observers vary, but generally speaking, it’s thought that 22 wafer fabs are being built in the country, and there is an overall plan to create a total of 30 new wafer fabrication plants. Many of these will concentrate on the production of legacy devices. As for market share, industry intelligence gatherers Trendforce believe China’s legacy chip manufacturing base could provide as much as 30% of the global demand for older devices. ElectroPages
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  3.  @Aherz-yd4gs well atleast we know most posters in here are not going to allow the wrong information to be published
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  4.  @hengongchua6250 the Indians actually have to make the stuff that the chips go into at the same scale as China
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  5. The 1%ters and their companies already know… probably even politicians… they are just playing to their constituents for votes Last I checked US multinationals in China brought in 390 billion a year in revenue from the sale of their goods and services in the Chinese domestic markets European multinationals are at 500 billion a year In fact I world argue all this animosity towards China is because they have not opened up enough 👇 Project Syndicate The value of global China China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate. In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040. McKinsey
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  6. I would argue deep down the sanctions were designed to get China to open up its markets even more Although last o checked the US multinationals made about 390 billion a year in revenues from the Chinese domestic markets The EU multinationals 500 billion 👇 Project Syndicate The value of global China China faces important questions about whether and to what extent it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world, write Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong in Project Syndicate. In any case, China and the world face important questions about the trajectory of their mutual engagement. At stake, according to our simulation, may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040. McKinsey
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  7.  @MrNickjberry  with their engineered slowdown (or else 70% of the people in their city real estate markets would probably be buying their 3rd 4th or 5th homes right about now…. While a few hundred million rural migrants can’t find an affordable home as they migrate to the cities) And even though these last few years China has been investing a few trillion (hidden loans included) in their belt and road partner countries China still averages about 820 billion plus dollar a year trade surplus with the world the last 2 years And have a record trade surplus for the first 6 months of 2024 Even though their Central Government is cracking down into real estate speculation Slowing down the economy? The Chinese people still added 2.6 trillion to their savings in 2022 And 1.8 trillion to their savings for first 10 months of 2023. (An increase of 8.5%) But with no other viable investment options left these days The Chinese Government is actually pushing their people away from investing in real estate, and into investimg in technology/industries instead. (What’s the difference between buying a 4th house vs a 5th house) This is where China leads the world in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future already As they will pile even more money into these future technologies My prediction is the Chinese Government will have to step in and regulate yet another overheated sector (technology) in the future Where Blinken,Yellen & their successors will have to keep going to China to beg them not to dump their cheap high tech onto the rest of world Most people have no clue what’s coming, as they supercharge their exports with their new innovative high tech products We can hide our heads in the sand and pretend “it ain’t so”… like that will help us out in the long run 👇 Chinese Consumers Are Saving Rather Than Spending Amid Economic Downturn Dec 21, 2023 — Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) The middle class is also prioritizing savings and seeking safe investment opportunities, according to the report. Chinese households have added 13.8 trillion yuan ($1.89 trillion) in savings in the first 10 months of the year, an 8.5% increase from the previous year. Pymnts
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  8.  @georwoogle  anytime you want to debate what I posted 👇 JANUARY 30, 2023 3 MIN READ China Invests $546 Billion in Clean Energy, Far Surpassing the U.S. China accounted for nearly half of the world's low-carbon spending in 2022, which could challenge U.S. efforts to bolster domestic clean energy manufacturing Nearly half of the world's low-carbon spending took place in China, according to a recent analysis from market research firm BloombergNEF. The country spent $546 billion in 2022 on investments that included solar and wind energy, electric vehicles and batteries. Scientific American 👇 Analysis: Clean energy was top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023 Other key findings of the analysis include: Clean-energy investment rose 40% year-on-year to 6.3tn yuan ($890bn), with the growth accounting for all of the investment growth across the Chinese economy in 2023. China’s $890bn investment in clean-energy sectors is almost as large as total global investments in fossil fuel supply in 2023 – and similar to the GDP of Switzerland or Turkey. Including the value of production, clean-energy sectors contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to the Chinese economy in 2023, up 30% year-on-year. Clean-energy sectors, as a result, were the largest driver of China’ economic growth overall, accounting for 40% of the expansion of GDP in 2023. Without the growth from clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have missed the government’s growth target of “around 5%”, rising by only 3.0% CarbonBrief
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  9.  @nickl5658  Yup… The difference between the USA and China is in Q3 of 2019 The US FED was bailing out those TOOBIGTOFAIL banks in their repo market less their credit markets seize up… once again A few things we learned since the 2008 subprime crisis Buying for US debt is not unlimited. In 2013 the US FED had to buy 71% of the newly issued external Sovereign debt by the US Treasury That Quantitative Easing (QE)debt that was soaped up/printing of money, that debt does not disappear Since we know from Q3 of 2017 to Q3 of 2019 the FEDs bright idea was to allow 50 to 60 billion of the Agency Debt and US Treasury Debt it soaped up during QE to slowly mature each month, off the FEDs balance sheet. Their Quantitative Tightening (QT) Where the US Treasury would issue new corresponding debt for the public to buy. Where with this QT selling they managed to dump about 600 to 700 billion in debt on the American “people” As the American “people” are the biggest buyers of US Sovereign Debt (directly/indirecty) That QT selling ended during Q3 of 2019 Because that selling of debt ended up helping to freeze up the repo market Just like when it happened in 2008/2009 during the subprime crisis Thus the FED balance sheet went from 4.5 trillion to about 3.8 trillion.with that selling from 2017 to 2019 But then the FED had to come back in QE 2.0 and buy that Treasury debt again, all that they dumped and more Last I checked they ran that FED balance sheeet back up to over 8 trillion. Now it’s back to around 7.8 trillion Wait some people might ask….. Agency debt is internal debt not supposed to be backed by the US Government Well the USA has had no issue with taking private internal debt and turning it into External Sovereign Debt backed by the US Government and the American “people” Something the Chinese might have been tempted to do with the Junk Bonds issued by those Chinese Property Developers That were a hot commodity the last few years, sought after by sophisticated foreign investors In short the Chinese purposely deflated their real estate markets. Cut off money to its Property Developers since 2010. And didnt bailout foreign investors who took a risk buying those Property Developer junk bonds the last few years While the USA left their real estate market to implode. Kept the stimulus/bailout money flowing to the companies, and bailed out foreign investors who invested in private internal debt 👇 As politicians call for taxpayer bailouts and a government takeover of troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, FreedomWorks would like to point out that a bailout is a transfer of possibly hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars to sophisticated investors and governments overseas. The top five foreign holders of Freddie and Fannie long-term debt are China, Japan, the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. In total foreign investors hold over $1.3 trillion in these agency bonds, according to the U.S. Treasury’s most recent “Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities.” FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe commented, “The prospectus for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government. That’s why investors holding agency bonds already receive a significant risk premium over Treasuries.” “A bailout at this stage would be the worst possible outcome for American taxpayers and mortgage holders, who have been paying a risk premium to these foreign investors.” “It would change the rules of the game retroactively and would directly subsidize the risks taken by sophisticated foreign investors.” “A bailout of GSE bondholders would be perhaps the greatest taxpayer rip-off in American history. It is bad economics and you can be sure it is terrible politics.” FreedomWorks
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