Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Chinese shortages that never happen, and why our investors always lose money" video.
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@FallenLeavesReturnToRoots
What most people don’t get?
Is it is mostly US multinationals making the lion share of those profits inflating the trade deficit between China to the USA
Where Chinese companies mostly trade with their Belt and Road country partners these days
These US multinationals are the ones sending you that junk
These US multinationals are still using the same highly polluting labour intensive factories formula.
As they were using more and more illegal labour in their Chinese factories, smuggled in from South East Asia.
Or more and more automation in their wholly owned factories in China these days
These are the same companies who got those trump Corporate tax cuts you for sure cheered about
Same companies based in China who derived 392 billion in sales of their goods and services into those Chinese domestic markets in 2018 when trump started his trade war
Same companies averaging 20% to 40% of their earnings from China whose high flying stocks are in your 401k/Pensions
Same companies who the American farmer and consumer were sacrificed. So the USA could try and get “more” or “better” access for the US multinationals, into those Chinese Domestic markets during the trade war
Same companies whose HQ is in a North American city you can easily go stand outside and protest at….
Why didn’t China pull the nuclear trade option and boot these US companies you might ask?
For one, it would crash the US Economy
And the Chinese don’t believe in a zero-sum game type of thinking
As I can show you during the trade war.
China didn’t pull out their big trade weapons, in fact they were lowering tariffs to most countries not raising them
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Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win
Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position.
China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD).
Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie.
But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets – many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative – where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation.
As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta)
SCMP
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@weewahgan6922
We in the west think the Chinese think just like us
Our everyone wins a Participation ribbon. You are so good at this or that little Timmy or Tabitha
So when there is a setback growth target not met, real estate bubble, , the Chinese people will give up like we would here in the West.
🙄
Because since they are not a democracy don’t have the same freedoms we have, the people revolt there is a civil vvar and China crashes and we are saved from the Chinese
🙄
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What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?
When we don't know enough to know what we don't know.
* So goes the reasoning behind the Dunning-Kruger effect, the inclination of unskilled or unknowledgeable people to overestimate their own competence.
LiveScience
👇
Why we overestimate our competence
Social psychologists are examining people's pattern of overlooking their own weaknesses.
Cross-cultural comparisons
Regardless of how pervasive the phenomenon is, it is clear from Dunning's and others' work that many Americans, at least sometimes and under some conditions, have a tendency to inflate their worth. It is interesting, therefore, to see the phenomenon's mirror opposite in another culture. In research comparing North American and East Asian self-assessments, Heine of the University of British Columbia finds that East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities, with an aim toward improving the self and getting along with others.
These differences are highlighted in a meta-analysis Heine is now completing of 70 studies that examine the degree of self-enhancement or self-criticism in China, Japan and Korea versus the United States and Canada. Sixty-nine of the 70 studies reveal significant differences between the two cultures in the degree to which individuals hold these tendencies, he finds.
In another article in the October 2001 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Vol. 81, No. 4), Heine's team looks more closely at how this occurs. First, Japanese and American participants performed a task at which they either succeeded or failed. Then they were timed as they worked on another version of the task. "The results made a symmetrical X," says Heine: Americans worked longer if they succeeded at the first task, while Japanese worked longer if they failed.
There are cultural, social and individual motives behind these tendencies, Heine and colleagues observe in a paper in the October 1999 Psychological Review (Vol. 106, No. 4). "As Western society becomes more individualistic, a successful life has come to be equated with having high self-esteem," Heine says. "Inflating one's sense of self creates positive emotions and feelings of self-efficacy, but the downside is that people don't really like self-enhancers very much."
Conversely,
East Asians' self-improving or self-critical stance helps them maintain their "face," or reputation, and as a result, their interpersonal network.
But the cost is they don't feel as good about themselves, he says. Because people in these cultures have different motivations, they make very different choices, Heine adds.
If Americans perceive they're not doing well at something, they'll look for something else to do instead. "If you're bad at volleyball, well fine, you won't play volleyball," as Heine puts it.
East Asians, though, view a poor performance as an invitation to try harder.
Interestingly, children in many cultures tend to overrate their abilities, perhaps because they lack objective feedback about their performance. For example, until about third grade, German youngsters generally overrate their academic achievement and class standing. This tendency declines as feedback in the form of letter grades begins. But researchers also have shown significant cross-cultural differences in youngsters' performance estimates--American children, it appears, are particularly prone to overestimate their competence.
APA
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Yup
We complained China was the number one polluter in the world
Now that they throw tons of money into their clean, green, renewable etc etc
we cry overcapacity…
when the real question should be…
“what are our countries doing out here in the west”
👇
JANUARY 30, 2023
3 MIN READ
China Invests $546 Billion in Clean Energy, Far Surpassing the U.S.
China accounted for nearly half of the world's low-carbon spending in 2022, which could challenge U.S. efforts to bolster domestic clean energy manufacturing
Nearly half of the world's low-carbon spending took place in China, according to a recent analysis from market research firm BloombergNEF.
The country spent $546 billion in 2022 on investments that included solar and wind energy, electric vehicles and batteries.
Scientific American
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Analysis: Clean energy was top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023
Other key findings of the analysis include:
Clean-energy investment rose 40% year-on-year to 6.3tn yuan ($890bn), with the growth accounting for all of the investment growth across the Chinese economy in 2023.
China’s $890bn investment in clean-energy sectors is almost as large as total global investments in fossil fuel supply in 2023 – and similar to the GDP of Switzerland or Turkey.
Including the value of production, clean-energy sectors contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to the Chinese economy in 2023, up 30% year-on-year.
Clean-energy sectors, as a result, were the largest driver of China’ economic growth overall, accounting for 40% of the expansion of GDP in 2023.
Without the growth from clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have missed the government’s growth target of “around 5%”, rising by only 3.0%
CarbonBrief
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We in the west think the Chinese think just like us
Our everyone wins a Participation ribbon. You are so good at this or that little Timmy or Tabitha
So when there is a setback growth target not met, real estate bubble, , the Chinese people will give up like we would here in the West.
🙄
Because since they are not a democracy don’t have the same freedoms we have, the people revolt there is a civil vvar and China crashes and we are saved from the Chinese
🙄
👇
What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?
When we don't know enough to know what we don't know.
* So goes the reasoning behind the Dunning-Kruger effect, the inclination of unskilled or unknowledgeable people to overestimate their own competence.
LiveScience
👇
Why we overestimate our competence
Social psychologists are examining people's pattern of overlooking their own weaknesses.
Cross-cultural comparisons
Regardless of how pervasive the phenomenon is, it is clear from Dunning's and others' work that many Americans, at least sometimes and under some conditions, have a tendency to inflate their worth. It is interesting, therefore, to see the phenomenon's mirror opposite in another culture. In research comparing North American and East Asian self-assessments, Heine of the University of British Columbia finds that East Asians tend to underestimate their abilities, with an aim toward improving the self and getting along with others.
These differences are highlighted in a meta-analysis Heine is now completing of 70 studies that examine the degree of self-enhancement or self-criticism in China, Japan and Korea versus the United States and Canada. Sixty-nine of the 70 studies reveal significant differences between the two cultures in the degree to which individuals hold these tendencies, he finds.
In another article in the October 2001 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Vol. 81, No. 4), Heine's team looks more closely at how this occurs. First, Japanese and American participants performed a task at which they either succeeded or failed. Then they were timed as they worked on another version of the task. "The results made a symmetrical X," says Heine: Americans worked longer if they succeeded at the first task, while Japanese worked longer if they failed.
There are cultural, social and individual motives behind these tendencies, Heine and colleagues observe in a paper in the October 1999 Psychological Review (Vol. 106, No. 4). "As Western society becomes more individualistic, a successful life has come to be equated with having high self-esteem," Heine says. "Inflating one's sense of self creates positive emotions and feelings of self-efficacy, but the downside is that people don't really like self-enhancers very much."
Conversely,
East Asians' self-improving or self-critical stance helps them maintain their "face," or reputation, and as a result, their interpersonal network.
But the cost is they don't feel as good about themselves, he says. Because people in these cultures have different motivations, they make very different choices, Heine adds.
If Americans perceive they're not doing well at something, they'll look for something else to do instead. "If you're bad at volleyball, well fine, you won't play volleyball," as Heine puts it.
East Asians, though, view a poor performance as an invitation to try harder.
Interestingly, children in many cultures tend to overrate their abilities, perhaps because they lack objective feedback about their performance. For example, until about third grade, German youngsters generally overrate their academic achievement and class standing. This tendency declines as feedback in the form of letter grades begins. But researchers also have shown significant cross-cultural differences in youngsters' performance estimates--American children, it appears, are particularly prone to overestimate their competence.
APA
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@NadeemAhmed-nv2br As countries modernize their natural population replacement rates plummeted as well
America as well has not met “natural” population replacement rates since 1972
But look at them complaining about immigrants these days
Here is an example by 2033 Social Security payments will need to be cut by 27%
Unless they borrow even more, raise taxes even higher or pile the immigrants in
Because it certainly looks like more and more Americans are souring on Clean, Geeen, Renewable AI and Robotics
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Robotic upside to China’s demographic decline
Fewer workers mean more industrial robots, greater efficiency and higher value-added
By SCOTT FOSTER
JANUARY 23, 2023
Even if some of the dire prophecies are accurate, however, the population decline will also make automation an absolute necessity – as has happened in Japan. It will widen China’s already large lead in the deployment of industrial robots and the industrial internet of things, helping to create an enormous market for service robots.
This process is already well underway. Over the past decade, installations of industrial robots in China have increased by 10.7 times, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Compare that with 68% growth in Japan, 67% growth in the US, 20% growth in Germany and 19% growth in South Korea.
In just a few years, China has become the world’s largest user of industrial robots by a very wide margin. In 2021, China accounted for 52% of total worldwide installations. Trailing far behind, Japan accounted for 9%, the US for 7%, South Korea for 6% and Germany for 5%. Viewed by region, Asia accounted for 74% of the total, Europe for 16% and the Americas for 10%
AsiaTimes
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