Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. The world has 400 years of rare earth reserves (China just found another deposit equal to the one it has now. So that's you can add another 120 years to it. While oil reserves have a 50 year reserve ratio
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  2. The key is Chinese Sovereign external debt.... If they ever started to run that up. And get it to a point they are looking at trillions in interest payments alone... Then there is a problem. What people see as collapsing is the result of China in most part, cutting off money supply. To its real estate sector/property developers since 2011. That's why we heard about underground economy and shadow banks around the time. Where their central Government had to step in and shutdown /regulate. These days China is on a common prosperity push. In 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their first homes. By 2018 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd, 3rd home s etc. That was a problem as a few hundred million poorer rural folks are still expected to migrate to the cities
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  3. China has a illegal workers from SE Asia and automation problem. Plus they don't need 20 guys with a shovel. 90% of Chinese families own there own homes 80% free of any encumbrances they lead in 37 of the 44 critical technologies of the future they will do fine
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  4. Yes it takes 2000 tons of waste water to create 1 ton of rare earths But then that pollution is localized Where China use to have killer smog Plus once again the current world wide reserves of oil is 50 years Rare Earths 400 Not including the 120 year deposit China just found 👇 Out of a way place… and where the head waters of 10 of Asia’s 11 major rivers flow out from Tibet
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  5. The mistake China made was thinking it could go green/clean earlier In a still booming economy. The capacity they built up wasn’t enough. These days they have slowed down their economy and they are still building capacity as we speak. Eventually they will get there I’m in the middle I believe we will eventually be forced into green clean energy. But I don’t believe it will happen right away or we can just do it right away
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  6. China is not going to go to war Even over a Taiwan it’s the people that make Taiwan not the land itself that is valuable They will sabre rattle But in the end they won’t go to war Look at their their history the most expansionist dynasties were under the Mongols Where even recently looking at the wars of the Communists The land they take they tend to have left Until recently where we are talking about border marker sized land disputes Rather than take the whole country
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