Comments by "D W" (@DW-op7ly) on "Fastepo " channel.

  1. 9
  2. 3
  3. 3
  4. 1
  5. Ā @weetaoneo3081Ā  In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
    1
  6. In China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers. Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate. Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018 Why is their Central Government doing this? Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen. Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need In China Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, health, education and even marriage prospects don’t have a house you don’t get married Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
    1
  7. The US shale oil industry has been borrow to drill and then borrow to drill some more to maintain production numbers That’s because the depletion/decline rates on those shale oil wells are horrendous From what I read even the high oil prices have only helped these oil companies one close to break even on that borrowed money where they hope to transition to natural gas In short all that money spent and borrowed mostly went to the corporations and banks šŸ‘‡ Shale Wells Producing More Early On, Then Declining Faster Than Ever The challenge of sustaining shale production is growing larger. August 16, 2023 Production from the average US shale oil well is declining more rapidly every year, with the biggest losses by far in the Delaware Basin, according to a report from Enverus. Increasing rapid declines by many thousands of older wells are obscured by the rise in total production from new wells as the industry engineers completions to maximize early production. JPT šŸ‘‡ DECLINE RATES IN THE BAKKEN SHALE For decades the oil industry has applied a simple rule estimating a constant ā€œdeclineā€ rate in conventional oil wells. Typically production in an oil field declines at an annual rate of around 8% to 10%, absent further investment. This allows field production to be counted on for two decades or more. Shale oil development, however, has turned the rule of thumb on its head, with decline rates as much as 50% in the first year. In order to maintain oil shale production the industry must constantly drill new wells. IAEE
    1
  8. 1
  9. 1
  10. 1
  11. What most people don’t get? Is it is US multinationals making the lion share of those profits inflating the trade deficit between China to the USA Where Chinese companies trade with their Belt and Road country partners these days These US multinationals are the ones sending you that junk These multinationals are still using the same highly polluting labour intensive formula. Using illegal labour from South East Asia. Or more and more automation in their wholly owned factories in China These are the same companies who got those trump tax cuts you for sure cheered about Same companies based in China who derived 392 billion in sales in Chinese domestic markets in 2018 when trump started his trade war Same companies whose high flying stocks are in your 401k/Pensions Same companies who the American farmer and consumer were sacrificed. So these companies could get more or better access into those Chinese Domestic markets Same companies whose HQ is in a North American city you can easily go stand outside and protest at Why didn’t China pull the nuclear option and boot these companies you might ask? They don’t believe in a zero sum game type of thinking As I can show you during the trade war. China. didn’t pull out their big trade weapons, in fact hey we’re lowering tariffs to most countries not raising them šŸ‘‡ Trump’s ā€˜trade war’ with China won’t be so easy to win Having learned these value chain lessons, Beijing has worked hard to bring more of the high-value-adding parts of value chains into China, and to build hi-tech industries in which it can establish a globally competitive position. China has successfully done this in areas like high-speed trains (CRRC), digital telecoms networks (Huawei), drones (DJI) and hi-tech batteries (BYD). Trump’s team is not wrong to be worried about China’s competitive emergence here, and to target these new-tech sectors in the latest trade war sortie. But here’s the problem: China exports almost none of these new-tech products to the US, making US tariff threats meaningless. Rather, they go to developing economy markets – many embraced by the Belt and Road initiative – where China has succeeded in building a hi-tech, high-value brand reputation. As Trump’s team will quickly learn, the challenge of finding China’s pain points is bigger than expected: for a decade China’s priority has been to base growth on the domestic consumer economy and reduce reliance on the low-value-adding export processing industries (many of which are US- or Hong Kong-owned and concentrated in the Pearl River Delta) SCMP
    1
  12. 1