Comments by "Nicholas Conder" (@nicholasconder4703) on "Ryan McBeth"
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Biggest problem with Afghanistan is that the hill tribes are atavistic and xenophobic. They have a medieval mindset, and hate anyone who doesn't have that same mindset. In fact, they hate anybody who isn't part of their "tribe". The history of Afghanistan over the last 200 years can basically be boiled down as follows:
1) Progressive leadership (king or prime minister) or outside force (British, Russian, American) shows up in Kabul and the lowlands,
2) This represents change, so the hill tribes drop all their intertribal warfare and band together behind a leader because they feel their culture is threatened,
3) Hill tribes come screaming out of the hills, attack everyone and everything, overthrow the progressive government or perceived invaders,
4) They trash the lowlands,
5) They get bored, and start remembering that his great grandfather killed my great grandfather, so I must kill him,
6) The tribes fall back into intertribal warfare, the coalition disintegrates, and they all head back up into the hills,
7) The people in the lowlands come out and start trying to rebuild their lives.
8) WASH, RINSE, REPEAT. This cycle seems to take about 20-40 years.
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Ryan, this is what I have been proposing since the dam collapsed. If you compare images of the Dnipro Dam from 1941 and the Moehne Dam in 1943 (both examples of dam demolition) to the Nova Khakovka Dam, the difference is like night and day. The damage I see here resembles the images of the St. Francis Dam post-collapse, which was cause by hydraulic lift. Given the scale of destruction and the apparent dislodging of the powerhouse and northern abutments of the dam from their foundations, I prefer to think this is the primary cause, rather than overtopping of the dam. But either reason is credible.
So, long story short, this event occurred either as a deliberate attempt to cause a collapse, or just plain Russian incompetence. And to paraphrase Colin Powell, it doesn't matter if this happened by accident or design, Russia is still to blame for this catastrophe.
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