Comments by "Nicholas Conder" (@nicholasconder4703) on "Amit Sengupta"
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@hhf39p Biggest reason this whole thing started was for 4 reasons, one economic, one political/economic and two geopolitical.
First, Putin and the oligarchs were concerned about the oil and gas reserves that were discovered in Ukraine in 2012. If developed, they could rival Russia's reserves and undercut Putin's political and economic clout with the EU. Since oil and gas sales make up over half of Russia, loss of even part of this market would put a severe dent in Russia's economy.
Second, back in 1991, Ukraine started in an economically poorer position than Russia. They are finally getting their feet under them, and raising the overall living conditions in the country. Ukraine is on the verge of showing what a market-based liberal democracy can accomplish; unlike Russia, which is heading towards being a totalitarian socialist system once again. Considering the number of people from Russia who have relatives in, or who work in, Ukraine, having a vibrant wealthy country suddenly spring up on its borders would make people question the direction Russia is going. It would undermine Putin's regime.
Third, and probably the direct cause of the war, was the need to secure Crimea. Back in 2014 when Russia stole Crimea, they were unable to gain control of the North Crimea Canal. This supplies a large chunk (I have seen up to 85%) of the water used in industry and agriculture in Crimea, plus a lot of the drinking water used in the region as well. Ukraine blocked the canal in 2014, and by my rough estimates Crimea would have emptied its reservoirs by around July of 2022. Putin invested heavily in Crimea militarily because he wants to control the northern Black Sea region, but without a secure water supply he cannot hold Crimea. He was going to be forced to either negotiate with Ukraine over control of Ukraine, or try to take the entire length of the North Crimea Canal. He obviously did the latter.
Fourth, Putin is a megalomaniacal psychopath who wants to recreate the Russian Empire, but occupying the territory the USSR once held, including all the former Warsaw Pact nations. This seems to be a shared dream amongst many of the leaders in Russia right now, a diseased concept of Russkiy Mir dreamt up by Dugin and outlined in "Foundations of Geopolitics".
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