Comments by "Nicholas Conder" (@nicholasconder4703) on "TIKhistory"
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I hate to disagree with you TIK, but your example with the dominoes was completely erroneous. Minimum Wage is NOT, I repeat NOT, responsible for University students being unable to find jobs.
The real reason is that there is a glut of university educated people in the market. So, according to the rules of supply and demand, if there is an over-supply of a commodity in your warehouse, you don't buy that commodity because you have nowhere to put it. Since we are looking at the NUMBER of job openings in the market, the graduates don't get employed. Simple as that. Wages have NOTHING to do with it. Rather like filling a crate with bricks to capacity. Doesn't matter what you do, you cannot put more in the crate until a gap appears, or a new crate is built.
This whole business started back in the 1940s, and I agree that government is in part to blame, but so are the Universities. The issue is that at the start of the Cold War, the collective West realized that research and technology were going to be what would win the next war. So they started supporting the Universities in a major way to get more scientists and technicians for the military-industrial complex. The Universities made sure that they could teach all the new students, but then the Deans realized they were onto something, so they expanded the Universities. One need only look at the explosion of Universities and Colleges after WW2 to see this. However, the Deans also realized that they needed to make Universities even more attractive so they could gain more revenue, so they started creating degree programs like "Creative Writing" and "Business Administration" and "Librarian training" (yes, stupid as it seems, you need a Librarian degree to work in a Library or some bookstores nowadays). Simultaneously, there was a push in high schools to promote University as a place where you needed to go to get high-end employment. This was helped by businesses who started hiring people based on them having a University education (usually MBAs) rather than having the actual knowledge and expertise to do the job. By the 1960s the bitter fruits from this approach began to ripen and infect the modern economy. I have seen the results of this in action firsthand, by the way. So, Universities kept multiplying in number, expanding and graduating students irrespective of demand, to the point that by the late 1970s many jobs that really required University degrees were taken.
What has happened is that we now have University factories churning out graduates, and at some point, like a jogger on a motorized treadmill. The Universities expand, so they need to attract more students to pay for the new facilities, and they create new degree programs. They then expand again, wash, rinse, repeat. I suspect this education bubble will burst when the population of students who can enter University declines below a certain threshold. At that point the Universities will find themselves having to cut back, use the buildings on campus for other activities, or fold. Again because of the law of supply and demand, but this time because there will be a lack of new students.
I would also add that during this process Trade Schools and apprentice programs for the trades (carpentry, electrician, plumbing, etc.) were either underfunded or muscled aside. This has lead to the issue of many western economies having too many University graduates, who cannot find jobs, and a lack of tradesmen to work in construction. Employers are currently screaming for tradesmen.
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In a sense it was a bit of a "Catch 22" situation of his own, and the Yugoslavian government-in-exile's making. Mihailovic and the Yugoslavian government wanted to protect the civilians, so didn't fight. But to get arms, he needed to have active resistance, which would have resulted in civilian casualties. Had Mihailovic chosen to "bite the bullet" and accepted the civilian losses, he might have garnered the Allied support and weapons he needed, garnered civilian support (as happened in France) and may even have been able to build a stronger position with the other forces. Of course, this is all speculation, and as we saw when Yugoslavia disintegrated in 1991-1992 (as well as watching the TimeGhost episodes on Yugoslavia during the 1920s and 1930s), there are a lot of very strong ethnic feelings in the area. And very long memories. So, it is also possible that anything Mihailovic tried would have been doomed from the very start as, unlike the Communists under Tito, they didn't have a philosophical or ideological "glue" to get them all fighting for a common cause against a common enemy.
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I think the halt order probably needs Occam's Razor taken to it. I think it most likely that the halt order was given, like the halt order for Army Group Centre at Smolensk, because the panzers had outrun the infantry. Apart from Guderian and the other panzer enthusiasts, the bulk of the German commanders were concerned about Allied counterattacks (such as at Arras). They also needed to rest the troops and perform maintenance on the tanks after something like 8 days of intense fighting and charging over 200 km across the countryside. The German commanders were already looking at finishing off France, so they needed to get their units back into shape (rested, rearmed and resupplied) for the offensive towards Paris and all points south. Also, if the (possibly unsubstantiated) stories that some German soldiers had been given a mild form of methamphetamine, they would be coming off their "high" right around this point (since this would have been the first time the Wehrmacht tried it, they would only now be finding out the down side of combat drugs). Lastly, the German generals figured, much as the British High Command and Admiralty, that only around 30,000 troops could be evacuated out of Dunkirk, not the 338,000 that were eventually taken off the beaches. It is likely they considered this just a "mopping up operation", only to discover a couple of days later that they still had a major fight on their hands. In other words, they forgot the old adage that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Even so, the overall thesis that Hitler wanted to continue fighting Britain is not bad, but he could have done this even after annihilating the British Army at Dunkirk. As long as the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force existed, forcing a crossing of the Channel would have been extremely difficult, if not impossible. The Wehrmacht would not have put so much effort into waterproofing tanks and collecting barges for the invasion had they not been seriously planning to attack England (even though some of the planning was carried out in a sort of malaise). Even if it was a smokescreen, leaving the British with sizeable forces at their disposal would be asking for trouble. Would you really want someone snapping around your heels while you are planning an invasion the size and scope of Barbarossa?
Lastly, I think the thesis makes it seem like Hitler was trying to play chess 3-4 moves ahead of his opponents. Given the number of major blunders he made during the war, I find this quite unlikely. If he was that smart, why didn't he ensure his army has enough spares for all their equipment? Why did it take until 1943 for the Germans to start increasing production of tanks, aircraft and artillery? Why was there a chronic shortage of replacements at the front? Surely if you were gearing up for an attack on the Soviet Union you would have included this in your planning.
So, in summary, although it is an interesting thesis, I think the idea comes up a bit short. I do agree that there are dots here that should and do need to be connected, but I will have to disagree with how you have connected them.
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