Youtube comments of (@Pensioncraft).
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Hi Robert,
I used to work with neural networks as a postdoc at Oxford, and the hype in the media falls far short of reality. For example, you should see how poor the automated closed captioning is on YouTube. It's the bane of my life. The stories about lost jobs ignore the plethora of new jobs that we simply can't even imagine. Consider how difficult it would be to explain the job of a web designer to your great-grandfather. People will be employed to design, create, maintain and test automated systems that replace existing jobs.
Drivers are about 3% of workers (2% lorry drivers) according to CNBC. If you look at this cool interactive map from NPR in the US:
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state
It shows an animation of the most common job by US state over time. You can see how secretaries died out with the advent of personal computers but, frankly, it was a lousy, poorly paid job. If you look at agricultural workers in the UK there used to be about 900,000 in in 1945 but with automation, it's now below 200,000. Again a lousy, poorly paid job that many people would not do by choice went to the wall.
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03339/SN03339.pdf
But we don't see mass unemployment in the UK as a result. Instead, people just do other stuff. So I wouldn't panic just yet about the rise of the robots. If you truly believe that's the future there are ETF funds that track AI companies (http://etfdb.com/themes/artificial-intelligence-etfs/) but as with all new technologies, they are risky and likely to be overpriced by all the hype. And finally, to get comfy with where we're heading I'd read some Isaac Asimov.
Ramin.
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Hi Ayman, thank you for your comment. Which point do you feel doesn't make sense? Binary Options were regulated by the Gambling Commission until January this year after which regulation passed to the Financial Conduct Authority which issued this warning about binary options: https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/consumer-warning-about-risks-investing-binary-options They agree with my points when they say "FCA data suggest that a majority of consumers lose money when trading binary options. To make a profit, a consumer is likely to need both a sophisticated knowledge of financial markets and to ‘beat the odds’, which is always difficult to do." Also they say that, like gambling, trading binary options is often addictive "The fact that binary options are similar to fixed odds bets, along with the short duration of contracts, means that they can be addictive and can result in consumers accumulating significant losses." And there's a conflict of interest with the broker "In most cases, the firm you are buying options from benefits when you lose. This places the firm’s interest in direct conflict with yours, which increases the risk of poor conduct by firms offering these products.". Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi kimi46 the Berkshire SEC 13F filings are available https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012320002466/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml but he doesn't change his portfolio much so you could just look at his list of shares in his Berkshire annual report for his largest holdings. The 13F rules are such that you have to file within 45 days of the end of a quarter. The SEC says (Q25 of https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm):
"The first such filing is due within 45 days after the end of the fourth quarter of the calendar year, i.e., the quarter ending December 31 of the same calendar year that you meet the $100 million filing threshold. The filing is due within 45 days after December 31, or, stated differently, by February 14 of the subsequent calendar year.
Rule 13f-1(a)(1) also requires that you submit three additional Form 13F filings during the subsequent calendar year. Each filing is due within 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter, i.e., the calendar quarters that end on March 31, June 30, and September 30"
Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi John, someone in my Patreon support group asked exactly that question this week. Platform risk is much smaller than market risk so I wouldn't lose sleep over it. The reason is the extremely tight regulation here in the UK on segregation of client money from platform provider money. If the platform goes bust your money is ringfenced and the platform has no claim on it. The FCA checks! However, the FCA does provide protection for risk-based investments as they describe here https://protected.fscs.org.uk/banking/how-is-your-money-fscs-protected/
They say:
"With investments, the level of protection is £50,000 per person, per authorised firm. For example, if you lost money because an authorised firm gave you bad advice or negligently managed your investments, you would be covered for up to £50,000 if the firm fails. Crucially, you are not protected if the companies you invest in go bust. The same applies if you buy a fund and it performs poorly. FSCS does not cover this. That’s the investment risk you take."
The reason I have multiple platforms is due to (a) laziness and (b) something to talk about on my YouTube channel! It's not for platform diversification. Remembering another password is just a pain.
Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi Ava,
Looking on the FCA register https://register.fca.org.uk/shpo_searchresultspage?search=halifax&TOKEN=3wq1nht7eg7tr I did find Halifax share dealing and its subsidiaries listed. The list the FCA gives in the "Trading/Brand Names" column is
"Lloyds Bank Direct Investments,Lloyds TSB Share Dealing,IWeb (UK) Limited,IWeb Share Dealing,Bank of Scotland Share Dealing"
So that means both Halifax Share Dealing Limited and IWeb Share Dealing are authorised and therefore eligible for the FSCS. So Halifax Share Dealing and IWeb Share Dealing come under the same authorisation as the Halifax website says here: https://www.halifax.co.uk/sharedealing/important-information/financial-services-compensation-scheme/
This says:
"We are a participant in the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Customers categorised as a retail client may be able to make a claim on this scheme if we default in our obligations to them. Compensation of up to 100% of the first £50,000 of assets held is available to eligible claimants. This limit is applied to the aggregated total of any stock or cash held across the following brands which we administer:
* Halifax Share Dealing,
* Lloyds Bank Direct Investments,
* Bank of Scotland Share Dealing,
* IWeb Share Dealing,
For example, if you held an account with Halifax Share Dealing plus an account with IWeb Share Dealing, your holdings in both accounts would be aggregated together for the purposes of eligibility for the FSCS."
I called the support line at Halifax bank and the person I spoke to said that Halifax Bank and Halifax Share Dealing are separate entities so you could claim separately for the two firms with the FSCS.
I hope that helps,
Thanks,
Ramin.
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Hi Tracker 100,
Once you buy a share or a fund it's your property and you don't have to do anything with it. In fact, because each transaction costs you money, it's best to trade as little as possible. If you invest for the long term (decades) then you should think carefully about what you buy and hold it for as long as possible. There's no commitment in a Vanguard Stocks and Shares ISA to invest a minimum amount.
Think of Vanguard's Stocks and Shares ISA, or any investment platform, as a supermarket. You decide what you want to buy and there's no minimum investment other than the cost of the funds e.g. if each fund "unit", like a share, is worth £100 then that's sort of like a minimum investment. But that's just like a can of beans costing 75p - you can't buy half a can so there's a minimum bean investment. But you can browse without buying anything if you like.
Unlike a supermarket investment platforms charge you a fee to be in the store so it pays to look around at the fees. For Vanguard you pay 0.15% of the amount you hold with them as a fee, the "account fee". Then each fund you buy will have an ongoing charges figure which is published clearly that ranges from 0.06% to 0.80% for Vanguard funds. Some platforms (not Vanguard!) charge you a fee to get in the store (entry fee), a charge while you're in the store and a charge to get out of the store (exit fee) but that's extortionate and should be avoided. You can find out more about Vanguard's fees here:
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/what-we-offer/fees-explained
Thanks,
Ramin.
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There's a committee that decides https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating e.g. they say "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession." Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi John,
Thank you for the positive feedback, I really appreciate it.
I've emailed your question to Vanguard support and will post their reply here to be doubly sure. I found this on Nutmeg's website (their support is utterly amazing, and they do offer a stocks and shares LISA):
"Can I contribute to a stocks and shares ISA and a Lifetime ISA in the same year?
Yes, you can contribute to both a ‘regular’ stocks and shares ISA and a stocks and shares Lifetime ISA in the same tax year. You can hold one Lifetime ISA alongside other cash, stocks and shares, or innovative finance ISAs, all within your annual ISA allowance of £20,000.
For example: if you invest the maximum £4,000 a year into a Lifetime ISA, you’ll have another £16,000 allowance to invest or save in other ISAs."
Thanks,
Ramin.
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Hi Mohammed, I agree that at some point we're going to get a US recession but it's a while until we get there, as the US economy is still looking strong. As the FOMC said in their September summary https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20180926.htm
"the labor market continued to strengthen and that economic activity rose at a strong rate. Job gains were strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate stayed low. Recent data suggested that household spending and business fixed investment grew strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed on balance."
However, when the next recession comes I don't think it's going to be anything like 1929. Banks are much better capitalised and the Fed's experience with 2008/9 will help limit the downside for the economy. But with Ten Year Treasury yields around 3%, which is well above inflation, gold doesn't look very attractive. After 30 years of falling yield we're now entering a regime of rising rates and that's toxic for gold. I think it's extremely unlikely that the price of gold will increase by a factor of four or five over the next few years. Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi Phil you're absolutely right - bonds, like any asset class, are not riskless. But compared to equity government bonds are safer over the short term. Of course, it depends on the duration of the bond, so short-term government bonds are more cash-like and you're taking less interest rate risk. But do you really think the risk of, say, a UK gilt fund is bigger than the risk of a FTSE 250 tracker? I'm not sure how that could be justified. In terms of liquidity, there is a huge secondary market in government bonds and so it is very easy to sell your government bond or, more likely, your government bond fund. Equity has also seen a decade-long rally and valuations in the US are getting difficult to justify given corporate earnings are weakening. I'd say that in two likely scenarios i.e. an equity selloff or a period of extended sluggish growth without much inflation then bonds would make sense for many people as part of a diversified portfolio. Thanks, Ramin
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Hi @Adrian-vf6kh I think Chinese policies like forcing technology transfer are unacceptable e.g. see the list here https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2024/april/ustr-releases-2024-special-301-report-intellectual-property-protection-and-enforcement
"For example, there remain many serious concerns regarding IP protection and enforcement in the People's Republic of China (PRC). In 2023, the pace of reforms in the PRC remained slow. Stakeholders continue to raise concerns about implementation of the amended Patent Law, Copyright Law, and Criminal Law, as well as about long-standing issues like technology transfer, trade secrets, bad faith trademarks, counterfeiting, online piracy, and geographical indications. Also, statements by Chinese officials that tie IP rights to Chinese market dominance still raise strong concerns. The United States continues to monitor closely the PRC’s progress in implementing its commitments under the United States-China Economic and Trade Agreement (Phase One Agreement)."
Thanks, Ramin
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Hi Robert,
In turn
- "Are they still going to go down in price" They usually go up in price. Look at a chart for IGLT which is the iShares Gilt ETF, and you will see it has been rising steadily since 2006.
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251806/ishares-uk-gilts-ucits-etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual#/
Of course it won't always rise, there will be volatility just as there is for any asset but this volatility will be lower than for stocks, which is one of the reasons why government bonds are so low risk. The other primary reason why they're low risk is that the UK government has (hardly) ever defaulted on its debt.
- It will continually churn the bonds inside the fund. That's because bonds come with a repayment date when investors get their money back. That can't happen to a fund because you want to stay invested in the market so the fund manager will reinvest the repaid capital back into another bond. The good thing is that if rates are rising you will pick up a bond with a higher coupon and your income will increase gradually.
- Buying bonds is DEFINITELY NOT throwing money away. Bonds are a crucial part of a balanced portfolio, just like roast potatoes are part of a Sunday lunch. Yes, we all love roast beef, but what would it be without some nice roasties?
- After bond funds pay income in the form of a dividend you DON'T sell them. Remember geese laying golden eggs? That income is precious, as is the safety through diversification that having bonds buys you. The equity/bond split should reflect your age and appetite for risk. Suddenly selling all your bonds would dramatically increase the riskiness of your portfolio. And each time you buy and sell you will be paying a transaction fee, so you should try and avoid this if possible. Decide on an equity/bond mix that suits you (Jack Bogle says your age in bonds, so age 20 would be 20% bonds 80% shares, age 40 would be 40% bonds, 60% shares and so on. Then stick with it.
Remember you can call me for free... My contact details are on the PensionCraft website.
Ramin.
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Hi Ken,
Thank you, I'm glad you found the video useful. Vanguard provides a Stocks and Shares ISA, not a cash ISA. Here are some of the ISA rules for 2017/18 and 2018/19.
- Each tax year you can put in £20,000 into a stocks and shares ISA if you're over 18.
- If you're over 16 you can also have a cash ISA where you can also put in up to £20,000 each tax year
- If you have both a Stocks & Shares ISA and a cash ISA you can split your £20,000 allowance between them
- You can only open one of each type of ISA per tax year
- You can convert existing ISAs from previous years (cash into Stocks and Shares or vice versa)
- The company you hold the ISA with can be a bank or an investment house like Vanguard
- All Stocks and Shares ISAs are global in that you can buy global shares and bonds within the ISA
I don't recommend financial products. If you want recommendations you should look for an independent financial adviser who should look at your individual circumstances and recommend suitable products.
But the key thing is how much the Stocks and Shares ISA provider charges in fees (platform charge, fund manager charge, trading cost of buying and selling funds, transfer out fee). Pay as little as possible! Money Savings Expert explains this really well and compares costs for several providers, but I've put some other resources here for you too. Get in touch if you have any questions, you'll find my contact details here: https://pensioncraft.com/contact
Money Savings Expert Stocks and Shares ISAs Comparison
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/stocks-shares-isas
Motley Fool ISA Basics:
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/isas-and-investment-funds/isa-basics/
Money Supermarket Stocks & Shares ISA Comparison:
https://www.moneysupermarket.com/investments/stocks-shares-isas/
Thanks,
Ramin
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Hi James,
Thanks for sharing your approach, which is interesting. Personally I want a portfolio that
- Has low fees (they compound just like returns and I can control them)
- Is diversified just in case markets go belly up and because I can't predict which asset will rally
- Takes valuation into account for equity
- Is cautious with equity, particularly US equity, because overwhelming evidence shows when CAPE P/E is at current levels the returns over the next decade are usually low
- Generates an income via dividend & coupons. The US dividend yield is half that of the UK, another reason I don't like it.
- Takes a macroeconomic picture into account by paying attention to PMIs and rates
I need to set weights somehow, and risk parity, a flavour of smart beta, is nice because volatility is fairly stable and so the weights don't change much, that's important because I don't want to churn my portfolio and lose money via trading costs. Plus I don't want to be glued to prices all the time, I want a portfolio I can leave alone. I'd characterise it as "lazy management" rather than "active management".
Ramin.
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Hi Michael, thank you for your thoughtful comments. I love Fundsmith's fundamental and value-driven approach to investing. They are capable, honest portfolio managers who are genuinely trying to do the very best for their clients. But so are the thousands of other portfolio managers who have the same training, the same company information, the same Bloomberg terminals as Fundsmith. What makes Fundsmith any different from the 80% of UK funds that underperformed their index over the last decade?
If your argument is that past performance is a good guide to future performance then you ignore a very large body of evidence that shows that is a false belief. For example, the Persistence Scorecard published by S&P Dow Jones shows (i) that outperformance is driven by luck, not skill and, as a corollary, (ii) outperformance does not persist. This makes it very hard to judge which funds will outperform in future.
I find that Fundsmith's seven-year outperformance during the blistering bull run since 2009 is not very convincing because the regime of ultra-low interest rates and ultra-low volatility will change and there is no evidence about how Fundsmith will perform in that new regime. Their concentrated portfolio is dangerous and accident-prone, as Neil Woodford discovered this year.
My goal is to educate people to understand investment. They can use this knowledge to build their own portfolios rather than put their faith in active fund managers. Instead of paying 1% fees to fund managers that eat away at returns and which, on average, are numerically incapable of outperforming markets it is better to buy much cheaper index tracker funds, diversify, think very long-term and not try to do stock selection or time markets. Or if they don't want to do it themselves they will understand how to choose a fund manager and what that fund manager is doing. Of course, some people who do my courses choose to go down the active fund route, but do so with deeper understanding.
Obviously, you have faith in Fundsmith, and are willing to pay an order of magnitude more in fees than you would for passive funds for that belief. On the basis of the evidence, I don't share that faith.
Ramin
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Hi chris77777777ify, you're so right, monetary policy does increase inequality, and help to buy schemes just maintain over-inflated house prices. The better solution, which the government is attempting, is to increase housing supply.
I think you'll enjoy this article by Andy Haldane who also agrees with you, although he makes the valid point about absolute wealth benefitting from monetary policy:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech732.pdf
"During this reflationary process, shares of the income and wealth pie have not remained constant. All public policy is re-distributional and monetary policy is no exception. Relative winners have included debtors, whose borrowing costs have collapsed. Relative losers are likely to have included savers reliant on bank deposits for income, due to falling bank deposit rates. Studies have tended to confirm that distributional pattern (McKinsey Global Institute (2013)).
But these relativities need to be seen against the backcloth of a rising, not retreating, income and wealth tide. The majority of people – savers and borrowers, old and young - appear to have been made better off absolutely as a result of extraordinary monetary measures. For what it is worth, the Bank’s own research points firmly in that direction (Bank of England (2012))."
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Hi pberesford,
Thank you for your comment. You're absolutely right these are good, large companies. However, being "good" in the fundamental sense that they tick Fundsmith's boxes of good companies does not guarantee that they will outperform in all market environments. In some rallies cyclicals outperform, who's to say we won't see such a rally? The second issue is that what constitutes a good company today can get hit by misfortune that nobody could see coming (an accounting scandal, CEO goes off the rails, natural disaster, industrial action, product recall...). In a highly concentrated portfolio such as Fundsmith these unfortunate events can make a big impact. He also has highly concentrated sector allocations to Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Tech and to the US. That could also hit the fund hard if there was bad news affecting any of those three sectors, or the US.
Personally I invest in low-cost passive funds because I know I, and 80% of professional fund managers in the UK, cannot beat stock indices long-term. I can reduce my fund management fees five-fold to ten-fold below those of Fundsmith with this approach. These bloated fees which I have to pay regardless of success or failure for an active fund are guaranteed to produce a drag on returns every year which I would rather do without.
Thanks,
Ramin
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Hi Celia,
Thank you for your comment and question.
I'm basing my conclusion on:
- A very low base probability of success i.e. the chance that any fund can consistently outperform over several years. Using data from S&P's persistence scorecard (for US mutual funds) that probability is less than 1% over 5 or more years.
- The short lifespan of Fundsmith. It is 8 years, less than one business cycle and occurs during a period of zero interest rates and a blistering equity rally that favoured defensive stocks.
- With such a concentrated portfolio (less than 30 stocks, 3 sectors make up about half the portfolio) there is an elevated risk of accidents drawing down the whole fund. This happened to Woodford and could also happen to Fundsmith.
- We are now entering a period of rising rates and quantitative tightening as the Fed shrinks its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. This is quite different from the period during which Fundsmith flourished. Hence the Panda analogy.
- The size of the fund. At £12 billion it's no longer able to buy smaller companies, and larger cap, richly valued companies will not be able to deliver such strong growth as smaller ones.
Fundsmith is not unique. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of funds that focus on strong balance sheets and high return on capital employed, not too much leverage, and the other criteria I describe in the video. Those funds also have extremely clever, talented and well-resourced teams of fund managers, who try their utmost to invest in good companies. But they weren't so lucky with their stock selection.
Focussing on just 20 to 30 stocks is very risky because a crisis for one stock can impact a whole sector. And the average fee for UK active funds is around 1.6% according to the FCA Asset Management Market Study, which puts Fundsmith at the low end of fees which is to be applauded.
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Hi James,
Thanks for sharing your experience and views, which are always interesting. I think the primary drawback of a house (that you live in) compared with investments is the "cost of carry" i.e. do you get an income from holding the asset? In the case of a house, there's a massive cost of holding the asset because of maintenance. Also, most people have to have a mortgage so this loan adds to the cost of ownership, as you say. This compares poorly with owning shares or bonds where you get paid to hold the asset due to dividend payments or bond coupons. This has to be factored into the return on investment. Also we can easily get exposure to growth abroad via the share and bond markets which is much more difficult with the property market. And of course it's much easier, quicker and cheaper to sell shares and bonds than it is to sell property.
On the other hand, you have to live somewhere. The question is whether you would be better off renting and investing your savings, and that's not an easy question to answer. It depends on the capital gain on your house, which is unknown, minus the maintenance and interest costs and the capital gain and income on investments which are also unknown. But what we do know is that cost of carry is positive for investments and negative for the house we live in.
Ramin.
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Hi @BiknutProductions
That's not true, people are benefitting from the safety and the higher yield and in the UK the capital gains tax efficiency if held outside an ISA or SIPP. Here's a quote from the FT https://www.ft.com/content/359d8a89-5c89-480a-9109-80d0b0f5f1dc
"Hargreaves Lansdown, the UK’s largest do-it-yourself investment platform, said gilt purchases in the first three months of 2024 were three times higher than the same quarter last year, with gilts “by far and away” its most popular fixed-income product, according to Tom Lee, the company’s head of trading. "
"Interactive Investor, the second-largest DIY platform, said gilts had attracted more cash than any other investment for 10 straight months, while AJ Bell said four of its top 10 traded securities had been individual gilts so far this year."
Thanks,
Ramin
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Hi GDC that's right. The effect of massive selling of, say, an S&P 500 ETF would cause an increase in the tracking error as units were sold, and it's the illiquid shares that are the problem. The companies that do the plumbing (Authorised Participants for ETFs) deliver their ETF units to . Then the Authorised Participant buys enough ETF shares to make a "creation unit", delivers the ETF shares to the ETF manager and receives a basket of shares in the ETF unit from the ETF manager which it can then, hopefully, sell on an exchange. The problem will lie with the Authorised Participant because the illiquid stocks will be difficult to sell. The bid-offer spread of the ETF depends on other factors, such as whether the index being tracked has a future associated with it which makes hedging easier, the volatility of the index, the size and daily volume of the ETF etc. There's a nice summary here https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/etfs-guide/observations-on-etf-liquidity/10013218.article Thanks, Ramin.
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Hi Paul,
You're absolutely right, the London / Not-London split is as huge as ever. It's almost like two separate countries. And London has suffered the worst price falls so far (in January 2019). The Nationwide House Price Index https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/headlines for December 2018 highlighted the regional variations:
“Amongst the home nations Northern Ireland recorded the strongest growth in 2018, with prices up 5.8%, though Wales also recorded a respectable 4% gain. By contrast, Scotland saw a more modest 0.9% increase, while England saw the smallest rise of just 0.7% over the year... Indeed, even though house prices have been rising more quickly in the north of England since Q2 2017, price levels are still significantly higher in the south. The price of a typical home in the south of England (£329,240) is still almost
double that in the north (£166,642)"
Thanks,
Ramin
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Thanks for the clarification RedRupert64. On the second point, I'm not making any comment on the performance of Hargreaves Lansdown's Wealth 150+ list. I'm simply quoting from their analyst's comments. But, as you say, it is suspicious that they are so critical about Fundsmith given that they earn nothing in commission from them. The way those lists are put together favour affiliated funds, as you suggest, according to the FCA (Occasional Paper 30, August 2017):
"Overall, our results for both deletion and addition decisions provide evidence that
affiliated funds are treated differently than non-affiliated funds. Affiliated funds are more
likely to be added to and, after RDR, are less likely to be deleted from, recommendation
lists. We find similar results for funds that rebate large portions of their assets under
management to platforms before RDR implementation. Together with the results that
suggest that Morningstar analysts are not swayed by these funds, they provide evidence
that platform recommendation lists favour affiliated funds and funds with high revenue
share to an extent that is difficult to justify by the qualities of those funds."
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/occasional-papers/occasional-paper-30.pdf
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