Comments by "James H Gornall" (@jamesgornall5731) on "Daniel Davis / Deep Dive"
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@FrancesCostello-o7b4l lads are cashing out of the military at an alarming rate, this is hardly mentioned but this wasn't a problem for a long time. It goes beyond changes to pensions, shoddy housing, nobody wants to be involved in a conventional war. Can we blame them? What else can be done? Conscription? My Mother was laughing when we were talking about the subject last week, she quipped that some lads on the bus, 18 years old (same age as when my Grandfathers were called up to war) were talking about having their nails done and what their eyebrows looked like, and if that's what we have to rely on then we'd better start to worry. We're hardly talking, 'greatest generation' here. To be fair, I'm not eager to have my kids called up, either, not for this mess.
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Did nobody consider that Russia has a latent military industrial complex that is now fully mobilised for war? When you have men in trenches, literal skin in the game, it becomes about winning and getting them home safely, and the West is on too much a just-in-time production society, outsource production to South Asia, focused on quality of life consumer goods, to meet that challenge. Now, I have no doubt that if Western nations became actively involved in the fight, we'd have a real ball game, but this would quickly escalate into global thrrmonuclear war, which isnt something to be encouraged, an hopefully nobody is dumb enough to consider. The 'peace plan' needs to be refined, especially with winter coming, and Ukraine's electricity grid severely degraded. I know Russian families in Moscow, in Leningrad oblast, in Vladivostok... are they worried about rolling blackouts in January freezing them to death? Nope.
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In 1991, the USA went to great lengths to centralise control of Soviet nuclear weapons and ensure the transition remained relatively peaceful, that the Caucasus republics did not immediately secede, that Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan returned their strategic and theatre weapons (and were heavily compensated to do so) and that there was not an immediate exodus of highly edicated and experienced nuclear scientists and egineers, which could proliferate weapons technology all over the world...
Fast forward to 2024, and the US has been trying to use proxies to kick Russia down in her own back yard? Ukraine, a nation that people claimed to love, has been used like, a 10 dollar...you know what, and which will be discarded as soon as it becomes convenient to do so, and there's continued talk of breaking Russia up? Has sanity suddenly gone missing? Surely to God, nobody is willing to risk nuclear war over a place most Americans STILL cant point to on the map?
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This will destroy NATO because Europe is not energy self sufficient, and Germany fears that this is an attempt to deindustrialise her, as evidenced by the deliberate sabotage of Nordstream 2 and sanctions which make it impossible for Germany's industries to function, to employ the numbers they do, for their 'hidden champions' in the Black Forest to make their unique components that serve key industries all over the world. They have admitted as much. If I was German, id be worried that this was an attempt to enact the Morgenthau plan, which suggested deliberate destruction of German industry, turning her into a pastoral country, by the US, at the end of WW2. I'd be thinking in terms of myself, the future of my children, and not about who gets what in Ukraine, a country most Germans have never been to, though I'm British and I have been to Ukraine and it was very nice and I'm very sad at what's going on. I've also been to Russia several times, have good friends and a former wife there, and I care deeply about her too (the country and the former wife). Many Russians are so close to Ukraine in terms of history and family (my ex had a common Ukrainian family name, Timoshenko, despite living in Vladim, on the Pacific coast, for God's sake) that they view this as a civil war between fraternal peoples. It's as though, during the US Civil War, Britain decided to help the Confederacy directly in order to secure supplies of cotton for her mills, which at the time were sitting idle for want of this critical raw material. Choking those supplies caused enormous hardship for the people here, particularly in the North, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, as well as economic damage to the Empire as a whole. Did we intervene directly? Jefferson Davis believed that the criticality of "King Cotton" would impel recognition of the Confederacy. Did this work? Britain enforced the Union blockade of cotton, in spite of her immediate economic needs, we kept other powers from meddling in the war's events by the continued domination of the Atlantic using the Royal Navy, which had for decades already permitted the US to expand West without fear of recolonisation by other continental powers like France who were very much interested in expanding their holdings in the New World, but were kept from doing so, (look it up, this is all true). Therefore, what prevents the USA from saying, as the British did, "let things play out to their natural conclusion," and keeping out of the conflict, remaining neutral? Nothing, except for the hijack of the USA's Executive branch by neocon ideologues like Kagan-Nuland, and theur ISW 'think-tank' whuch has shut out all other think tanks like Rand, and Brookings among others, from influence. Despite neocon protestation to the contrary, Russia hasn't the capability or the will to invade NATO member nations that aren't filled with ethnic Russian speakers and which aren't critical to their strategic position on the Black Sea, to their fleet base and vital warm-water port in Crimea, they arent critical to the resources of the Donbas which they Russia is rightly concerned would end up exploited by NATO otherwise (coal, oil, gas, nuclear energy, steel, rare earths, exotics like Neon/Xenon production at the Azovstal plant, Ukraine being a major, perhaps the primary, supplier of noble gases for the workd's laser production, key to cutting-edge semiconductor production) to a lesser extent by any Ukrainian membership of the EU, which was possible though a long way off given the risk of massive population flight, as we've seen take place in the last 2 years; only, instead of the men escaping to work in EU countries which would've resulted in the event of membership, we're seeing the women and children leave, and as time goes on this will continue more of those migrations will become permanent. A nation deprived of women and children has no future, it will become internally unstable as men compete violently for the one resource they seek above all others (i.e. desirable females with whom to reproduce).
The longer this goes on, the darker the future looks for Ukraine's postwar future. Shut out from the EU, from NATO, internally divided and an overall more dangerous, less prosperous place to live. I can see it all laid out... if the US actually cared about Ukraine as it claims to, it would say that the current positions are ones we can use for the basis of starting negotiations. There would be compromise and setbacks, neither nation would accomplish what it set out to do 100%, but it would end the war, ensure Ukraine's neutrality, get the gas flowing into Europe once more and HALT the wrecking of Ukrainian infrastructure, which has compounded over time as Moscow becomes increasingly impatient with the situation and as hawks in the Russian military encourage the leadership (Putin is a strong leader but he isnt a lone Tzar up there, not like Stalin was) to pursue a more aggressive policy in order to maximise battlefield damage to FORCE Ukraine, unilaterally, in spite of the US, or force a revolt, a coup, that brings to power a faction willing to talk. If I were in charge of Russia I might well say to hell with it and target all of Ukraine's power grid, not just generation but transmission too, and smash their ability to keep functioning during Winter. When the other side doesn't seem to appreciate reality, you eventually have to bring it to them. The US did so by using the A-Bomb on Japan, where the government was forced in part by direct intervention from the Emperor himself to say, "Enough, we quit." A drastic, unprecedented solution for Japan, but one which stopped the Soviet invasion of Japan, the US/UK invasion of Japan's mainland, and with Japan cut off from food imports, may have ultimately saved millions of Japanese civilians from starvation in Winter, 1945. Ukraine is like Japan, as the US was busy destroying their cities and infrastructure with firebomb raids, seemingly oblivious to the suffering of her population. Now, how much of that ability to generate and move power, to continue to move trains and produce the necessities of life, to keep hospitals functioning, how much needs to go (and potentially take years to replace) to end all this? Instead of parroting unreliable statistics about Russian casualties, those proclai.ing, "Slava Ukraine!" need to start thinking about the survival of those people inside Ukraine, who suffer and will suffer ever more greatly fighting a war already lost. It breaks my heart.
As a quick aside, a few Patriot systems can defend a few key locations; parts of a large city, a key airfield, cover some forces at the front, a key power plant and, just as critically, its switchgear, without which it could produce but not move the energy, but a few Patriot batters cannit protect everything, everywhere, all at once, like some mythical God snatching projectiles from the air with lightning bolts. Jesus, in heaven, I pray that this doesn't continue for another 12 months. For the sake of the people in Ukraine, and for those in Russia.
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