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Acid Joke
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "Acid Joke" (@PWMoze) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

Here in the UK, it seems strikes are no longer confined to blue collar workers. As well as railway workers, nurses, ambulance drivers, teachers, postal workers, care workers etc being forced to strike by below inflation wages, compulsory redundancies, employment terms and conditions being eroded, we now have middle class professionals striking too, such as junior doctors, medical consultants even criminal court barristers.
304
Probably Peter's most inaccurate video so far. UK food hasn't been 'bleuurggh' for decades. In the UK we enjoy one of the most varied cuisines in the World, our shops have a huge variety of internationally and locally sourced food at a wide range of price points, our various high street restaurants feature food styles from all over the globe. British food is much more cosmopolitan and healthy than in the US. We also have much better food regulation than in the US and our farms are increasingly becoming more innovative and environmentally progressive than those in the EU since Brexit. The main problem UK farmers currently face is the unpredictable weather. Add to that the lack of EU subsidies which have not yet been adequately replaced and the as yet unreconciled burden of regulations left over from the pre-Brexit era. You could possibly add to that list the growing suspicion that the new Labour government hates them more than Stalin hated the Kulaks! The new Inheritance tax is intended to stop the super wealthy from using land ownership as a way to avoid paying tax. By forcing the sale of previously unused farmland It is intended to lower the cost of land and stop huge amounts of land being allowed to be unproductive. Farmers are protesting about the way, by setting the threshold too low, it will also stop the owners of medium and smaller farms from being able to be pass their farms from one generation to the next, breaking the continuity of long standing and traditional small holdings. It will not necessarily destroy domestic agriculture but it may well transfer the ownership of agricultural land and possibly change it's use. In fact it is highly likely that much of the land that will eventually be sold will inevitably be taken up by global corporate agricultural concerns, possibly making the use of the land even more efficient. It may also encourage a shift towards solar and wind power production on otherwise unproductive land. Throughout this predicted transition British food will not be 'bleaurrgghh' and UK farms will continue as they always have: rich in assets and poor in cash. Sorry Peter, this video was bollocks. Come to the UK and check it out. And by the way, what's the deal with all the refereces to being 'white'. Is that relevant? Would farmers be better if they weren't white? I don't get it...?
127
The movement towards the right in Europe is not a flash in the pan. It is currently happening in Denmark, Sweden, Holland, Belgium, Germany, France, Portugal and is already in operation in Italy, Hungary and Austria. In the UK the current rise in popularity of Nigel Farage's Reform Party (not far right, more right of centre) indicates a disillusionment with the centrist, liberal consensus and globalist economics and a move towards right leaning, popularist movements.
102
Whatever you may think of the whole process of colonisation, Nigeria is a very good example of (1) how unstable some African and Asian nations became after independence was granted and (2) what an advantage the legacy of colonialism is for individuals who want to leave their country for economic reasons and migrate to the ex-coloniser's country. Over recent years Nigeria has supplied the second largest immigrant group entering the UK (after India, with Pakistan coming third). This is because the UK retains strong cultural and political ties with Nigeria. There are large and vibrant Nigerian communities in many cities in the UK, particularly in London. With Ghana they are probably the two most significant and successful African communities in the UK. Politically they are quite conservative, socially too. The have strong religious bonds and family values, they are generally aspirant and hard working. Because of this they are generally successful economically and their children do well academically in British schools. Nigerian communities in the UK are a very successful example of multi culturalism at work.
78
In the UK with weather forecasts are predicting rain (of course) and wind (as usual), not snow (so no white Xmas). The only weather crisis we are facing seems to stem from continual regional flooding. Meanwhile government subsidies linked to energy prices are being withdrawn, so the cost of living crisis continues, despite inflation coming down slightly.
67
I don't think it is dwindling international power and trade that Brits fear, it is more likely to be record levels of enforced mass immigration causing housing shortages, sky-rocketing rents, low wages, ever-rising house prices and cultural erosion in the form of radical Islamism and institutional wokeism. By the way, we also have woeful public services, bankrupt local councils, a system of high crime/low prosecutions with full prisons and clogged up courts, record levels of tax, food banks, crumbling schools, continual crisis in the NHS, shrinking military, empty shops in all our high streets, homelessness, gangs, illegal immigration, drugs and knife crime. The UK's position in the world isn't really a concern at this point.
58
Peter, can you do some content about South Ossetia?
24
Heard the terms 'homesure' , 'nearsure' and 'friendsure' for the first time last week. They seem to be fundamental to Zeihan's model of non global international trade. I'm glad I finally caught up.
23
Why all the references to farmers being 'white'? I don't get it. Is this a euphemism for something I am unaware of or is it just internal racism?
18
@VittamarFasuthAkbin I'm not sure if Brexit isolated the UK, certainly we struggled without access to the single market at first but we have started to increase exports lately. Meanwhile we have had record numbers of Indian, Nigerian, Pakistani, Bangla Deshi, Ghanaian, Middle Eastern and North African immigrants over the last three years. Add to that tens of thousands of Chinese students each year. Not exactly splendid isolation, more like open borders in all but name. We have seen Net immigration of over 700,000 each year, requiring a new city the size of Birminham to be built every two years to accomodate them. As for 'strong man' policies, our prisons are currently so over crowded we are now officially allowing prisoners to be released after serving only half their sentences. Out illegal immigration population is costing over £8m per day to accomodate them in hotels, hostels and privately rented apartments. Shop-lifting and burglary goes unpunished, only 2% of rapes are successfully prosecuted, benefit fraud is increasing and tax avoidance by the wealthy is endemic. Thatcherism has much to answer for in that our publicly owned utilities were all privatised and now we receive much more expensive but lower quality, poorly regulated services, but the real culprits are the successive Tory governments that under invested in our country over the last 14 years and have pretty much bankrupted us. We now have the highest tax burden since WW2, rocketing National debt, the lowest GDP per capita in decades, low growth, social decline, sectarian division all propped up by enforced mass immigration, which the Tories specifically promised to limit and then didn't.
12
@xb2856 Of course there is a lack of new homes but the increased demand for housing caused by mass immigration makes the situation worse, just as increasing the labour supply depresses wages. The extra demand for public services, healthcare, school places and benefits can only put extra pressure on the already inefficient and underfunded infrastructure. Add that to cultural divisions, sectarian politics and a low trust society and it begs the question how does mass immigration actually benefit the UK?
11
@fatboymisk Thanks, the spelling makes sense now I think of it. I heard it as being 'sure' of the supply route rather than being related to the 'shore' (like off shore banking). Should it have a hyphen too, as in 'home-shore'?
10
@Newbmann UK teachers eventually voted not to strike because the British educational system, the school buildings, the school budgets etc are already in crisis, with record truancy since lockdown and low achivement across the board. British state schools are in crisis at the moment and subsequently teacher's salaries have been depreseed for about a decade. Somehow the teachers unions were still prepared to accept a below inflation wage rise spread over two years. However, on the bright side, fee paying private schools, like the one attended by Boris Johnson, George Osbourne, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak etc are doing just fine. Funny that?
8
Interesting that Peter didn't mention the UK. I'm presuming he puts us in the same group as Germany, Netherlands, Belgium etc. Of my group of mates from school in the 70s and early 80s only two have chosen to have children and one of them only had a single child. By far the majority of us chose, for one reason or another, not to have children.
6
@Art-is-craft You may well be right. I was just pointing out that, in this case, the UK does not fit the picture Peter is painting. I know he is talking in very general terms and I am being very specific but I enjoy gently pushing back against the narrative because I think it adds detail to the discussion. The UK enjoys slightly different weather patterns to mainland Europe because we get the benefit of the jet stream, which warms our coastal waters and raises our average temperatures. Our problem is continued unseasonably high levels of rainfall. The subsequent flooding of people's houses, town centres and agricultural land, the sewage spills and polluted coastal waters, infrastructural damage and interruption to local and national services effects people's lives in the UK much more than dropping temperatures.
6
@josefk332 Yep, I unsubscribed too. Not sure if I can trust him on subjects I know very little about if he's so far off track on a subject I actually know something about.
6
@adtastic1533 Many of the people who are striking in the UK are public servants, paid by the government or local authorities with tax payers' money. Their jobs: nurses, postal workers, ambulance drivers, railway workers, doctors, teachers, lawyers etc etc, can not be out-sourced to places where labour is cheaper. Nor should they be. Plus, in the UK we recently had a Prime Minister (Liz Truss) who favoured reducing workers' rights, lowering wages, deregulation, weakening terms and conditions of labour etc in favour of globalist, supply side, neo liberal, economic theories and she didn't even last two months. Even the UK Treasury thought her measures were dangerous and unworkable. She almost bankrupted the country and made the cost of government borrowing go through the roof. This then caused interest rates to go up meaning even middle class people with mortgages became hopelessly in debt with only negative equity. Cost of living crisis part II. A nation should value and protect its own working people, not undermine them in favour of a labour force on the other side of the world. If the government doesn't see it that way then it falls to the unions to represent their workers, defend their conditions and protect their rights.
5
Zeihan usually steers clear of the culture wars but after Kelly Jay Keane's treatment in Aus and NZ recently you would hope he would have a perspective worth sharing.
5
Some might argue that Moldovan reunification with Romania would be a terrible drain on the fragile Romanian economy. I presume they would be able to ask for economic and political support from the EU, to help bring Moldova up to scratch economically and politically, but whether they would get it would remain to be seen. It is quite likely there might also be a stubborn rump of pro-Russian agitators in Transnistria, the smugglers and the black marketeers etc, though bandits in the mountains wouldn't be a new phenomena in that part of the world! However, If Moldovans want reunification with Romania and the Romanians agree, they both have the right of self determination whatever the drawbacks. Plus it would be another nail in Putin's coffin. Bring it on.
5
@dcnative1618 Yes indeed. In the UK, Amazon warehouse workers have fought for the right to unionise themselves and have indeed recently mounted a couple of strikes to protect their wages, working conditions and to create tighter regulation on their employers. And who can blame them?
4
@T1tusCr0w It was not exactly a general strike. Some of these interest groups have now resolved their disputes. The teachers eventually chose not to continue their dispute as it was likely to have a hugely detrimental effect on already suffering pupils. Nurses and ambulance drivers did likewise for the sake of their patients. I believe the baristers (attorneys) have also now accepted an offer as the British law courts are in a backlog crisis. Meanwhile Junior Doctors, Senior Medical Consultants and the railway workers are still finding it impossible to find a settlement. In the case of the railways, it is because management want to close ticket offices, make junior workers redundant and continue to restrain wages. In the case of the doctors it is because the Government want the NHS to fail so that they can justify selling the profitable parts of it off to American Private Healthcare Corporations.
4
@jesinbeverly From what I understand many Ford workers have been on temporary contracts for up to four years now, meaning that their wages have been supressed, their contractual terms and conditions have deliberately been made very poor and their job security is constantly undermined. To my mind they have a very stronng case for industrial action. Ford could easily afford to pay their employees properly and provide them with secure contracts but it chooses not to. I support the workers and the strike if it becomes necessary.
4
Depressing that we're actually talking about potential naval conflict. Has the recent progrss in Sino/US diplomacy achieved nothing?
4
@Michaelw777.52 I'm a massive fan too and certainly wouldn't feel well informed enough to disagree with his data or his analysis. I know from various long form seminars of his that have dealt with demograhic change that the UK firmly falls within the group with an aging population (the upside down pyramid analogy) with the final wave of 'boomers' now moving into retirement without sufficient numbers to be replaced in the work force. I'm interested in Peter's take on the UK because we have relied upon immigration to counter this demographic trend since the sixties but of course we now, post Bexit, have had a seriies of governments that have placed themselves against the principle of immigration on cultural grounds while continuing to allow immigration on economic grounds (often without fully owning that fact in public). It would seem that we don't want immigrants from Europe, despite how useful they may be to our economy and society, but continue to rely heavily upon economic migrants from Africa and S.E. Asia. I would be interested to know how Peter thinks the UK could deal with this obvious dichotomy. Germany, with their aging population, take in millions of migrant workers and asylum seekers each year, while here in the UK we are encouraged to think of them as 'the enemy' by the popular press and a scourge that has to be stamped out by at least two of the last Home Secretaries. We know that concern over immigration was a huge part of the pro Brexit vote and yet we now find many of our businesses and public services simply can not find sufficient labour to function properly, especially the NHS. What is the answer? Is immigration a necessity to a country like ours or is there another way that our political leaders and economists are unaware of or ignoring?
3
@Michaelw777.52 It is interesting that you should suggest India as a possible economic/immigration partner for the UK. We have a long tradition of immigration from the Indian subcontinent in the UK, especially in the sixties and seventies. Most of the children and grand children of those immigrants are now a fundamental part of our society just as you describe in your previous comment. Our current PM, Home Secretary, Mayor of London are all part of that diaspora. The list is quite extensive. However in more recent times India has quite consciously positioned itself, politically and economically, quite separately from the UK. For example the Indian government has failed to support sanctions against Russia and still involves itself in various economic relationships with China which the UK is becoming increasingly suspicious of. In many ways India is asserting its global independence now and has turned away from its traditional links with the UK. Instead we have an ever closer relationship with Bangladesh, Pakistan and certain West African nations such as Ghana and Nigeria. In recent governmental statistics on immigration by far the majority came from those countries. This in itself is very ironic as most anti immigration sentiment in Britain before Brexit was not actually directed at the Poles, Czechs or Romanians who were entering Britain because of EU freedoms, but rather the African communities but especially the largely muslim Pakistani and Bangla Deshi communities that were seen as dangerously anti Western in their ideology and religion. Thisnis of course was a narrative that was widely promoted by the right wing mainstream press and was instrumental in the anti EU sentiment prior to the Brexit referendum..however misplaced that logic may now seem. In other words, the UK was very sensitive to issues surrounding immigration and continues to be. Those issues always include a distrust of other races, religions and cultures and the fear of being 'replaced' culturally and socially. Once again, very ironic considering our history of immigration from our empire, Ireland, Eastern Europe, Protestant France etc etc, We are a nation built on immiration going back to the Romans, the Celts, the Vikings and the Normans. I won't bother mentioning the prehistoric 'beaker people'. Its almost like a running joke. This is my question to Peter. Given that British people have always been quite reluctant to openly embrace immigration, particularly from other ethnicities, how can we possibly address our population drop off? On a lighter note check out this link, it says it all much better than I ever could, https://youtu.be/1cgeXd5kRDg
3
@Jason-fm4my Just saying what I see. Not saying I approve, just trying to suggest why people like Farage are popular.
3
@Art-is-craft Politically no, geographically yes. You are being silly.
3
@ILikeFreedomYo The UK government is currently trying to force through legislation that would obligate 'key workers' to provide 'minimum service' during any industrial action. No one is exactly sure what 'minimum service' actually means and who the 'key workers' would be but it is clear such legislation would be taking away the right to strike from certain workers. Previously this kind of restriction has only applied to the army and the police etc. This is part of a long history of anti-union laws which go right back to the Margaret Thatcher era. Personally I think that a responsible government should be redressing the reasons why people need to strike, rather than restricting their rights when they do so as a last resort? I could be wrong though, it does seem an idealistic sort of thing to believe and probably not a sentiment shared by many in the US?
3
@SignalCorps1 It is sad if unions are 'a waste of time' in the USA. I'm not sure how it works from state to state in the US, but in the UK, unions provide workers with a means of 'collective bargaining'. That means no individual worker can be punished or intimidated for seeking to protect themselves when in conflict with their employer. They do not only represent you in negotiations on wages but also in disciplinary matters, providing legal advice and legal representation. They can protect your working conditions and working practise as well as consulting with management over contracts and regulation on your behalf. They can even lobby for companies to be sanctioned or regulated by government on behalf of their members. They can provide workers with training and education and even career advancement in some cases. They can provide hardship funds during disputes and can link with other associated unions to provide support and solidarity during prelonged strike action. In the UK they have been traditionally linked to the Parliamentary Labour Party so they can also provide a route to the legislature, effecting policy and shaping the national debate. Some union activists have eventually taken up seats in the government. They have even brought down a government or two! In most Scandinavian countries they are an essential part of industrial, economic and social policy making. Its not just about wages, its about giving you representation, fighting to make sure your work place is safe, to make sure you are treated with dignity and to make sure you are not exploited by your employer. There is strength within a union.
3
@SignalCorps1 Yes, I get the feeling from some of the comments above that unions in the UK and in the US are two entirely different things. Certainly ours don't have these traditional links with organised crime but they do have links to very left wing politics including a traditional sympathy for the USSR era Russians.
3
@ILikeFreedomYo in the UK we don't have a constitution just a complicated set of historic statutes.Education budgets are set by a combination of the Chancellor and the Exchequer. The same applies to healthcare, the police, the army etc etc. These budgets are then paid to local and municipal governments, regional health authorities and regional police authorities, who can then allocate the money as they see fit. Some are better than others at doing this, some have different priorities. All of them have been experiencing lower budgets i(n real terms, when taking into account inflation) probably since 2008. Subsequently many local education authorities have put constraints on education spending for many years, this is reflected in salaries and the working conditions. Similarly in hospitals have had to pay staff less and cut back on repairs and renewals. The police and the army have severely cut their numbers. Public sector workers have had the right to strike and have had it for over 100 years. Obviously they don't feel they should give that right up, so successive governments have restricted what they can do through the law. The general public in this country are split about the degree of freedom unions should have, while public sector workers have some of the strongest and well supported unions in the country. They also have some of the most poorly paid and under valued jobs. With professions like nurses and teachers there is a historic reluctance to strike, with the police and the army it is simply illegal. But also in these occupatiins there is a reluctance to leave the profession (because it is seen as a vocation) and this may explain why they are often so under valued and poorly paid. Meanwhile the government has allowed their terms and condiions to deteriorate for almost a decade, subsequently there are some that want to strike but also many who see they have no choice and are reluctantly leaving the professions. If you want good services provided by competent professionals you have to pay them fairly and value the work they do, otherwise you get very poorly delivered services, industrial disputes and societal disharmony. That is what we are currently experiencing in the UK. The strikes and the urge to strike are a symptom of the maliase, not its cause. The cause is over a decade of austerity, shocks to the economy, Brexit fall out, poor government oversight, ideological conflict, a cost of living crisis and declining standards of living.
3
@NimbleBard48 Of course, and your observations are useful and interesting. I know about Polish winters, I visited Krakow and Zakopane for New Year in the nineties. It was COOOOOLD! We do not get conditions like that in the UK, we just have floods with pollution funning into rivers caused by overflowing sewers. So we won't be having a white Xmas, we will be having a shite Xmas.
3
As usual: a sober assessment of the realities rather than an ideologically biased advert for a set of idealistic principles. Keeping the facts at the front of the dabate.
3
Well said.
3
Peter, I appreciate the analysis very much and follow your posts closely, but sometimes you seem a little flippant about the conflict. 'Duking it out' is a bit inappropriate, bear in mind that means thousands of young men and women get to die? Sometimes it is valuable to remind yourself that its not a game of strategy or some kind of sporting competition, it is an awful and deadly conflict that has and will cause immense suffering, particularly for the innocent Ukrainian civilians. Just saying...
2
@davothedon Couldn't agree more. Imagine what the UK would be like if we were to build sufficient houses to accomodate the three million or so who have arrived since COVID. Not only would otherwise small cities have to build new high rise estates in all the brown field sites, small towns forced to sprawl out into the green belt, all these new developments would require new roads, motorways, sewers, power supply, shops, parking, public transport, offices, petrol stations etc etc. And who would be living in all these lovely newly built developments? Not English people, their birth rates are shrinking. So effectively we would be accomodating immigrant communities who were not born in the UK and who have never contributed to the exchequer, at unprecedented rates never before seen in this or any other country's history. Why? What would be the benefit to the UK? Can anyone please explain why we need to do this and why there is no alternative?
2
@Intreductor I was refrring to Chega in Portugal, The PVV in Holland, the DPP in Denmark and the Social Democrats in Sweden. They all have similar nationalist, popularist agendas and they have all become more significant poiltically in their respective countries recently. Just a generalisation but nevertheless a valid observaton?
2
The first map was sideways? Took me half the video to work out what I was looking at.
2
Yes that may well be true but Romania would be able to ask for economic and political support from the EU to help bring Moldova up to scratch. I think the problem might be a stubborn rump of pro-Russian agitators in Transnistra, the smugglers and the black marketeers, but all that remains to be seen. If Moldovans want reunification with Romania and the Romanians agree, they both have the right of self determination. Plus it would be another nqil in Putin's coffin. I hope it happens.
2
An excellent and balanced assessment Peter. Your conclusion that things are about to 'crack and break' seems to be true both in the region and internationally. This conflict is radicalising, dividing and mobilising people in most of the Western democracies, and seems to be on track to continue that process. It is creating sectarian division, a political generation gap, civil and political unrest on a par with the anti Vietnam War/civil rights protests in the sixties. Perhaps the division at the moment is even worse thanbthe sixties because it involves sectarian division as well as political/social and cultural. In the UK, especially in London, we have seen the weekly protest marches create a system of two tier policing, with pro Gaza marchers being allowed to publicly voice support for Hamas, use hate speech, express violent anti semitism, deface monuments: while anti Islamist/nationalist marchers are treated much more ruthlesely by the police and also vilified in the media. We have also seen blatantly biased and inaccurate reporting of the conflict in the mainstream media with the BBC unable to even call Hamas terrorists. Media platforms have provided 'bad actors' with opportunities to spread disinformation and media coverage is often openly biased. We have had Parliament process derailed because MPS were being bullied by fanatics, MPs lives threatened forcing resignations and the subsequent rise of political Islamism in our local elections. We now have a whole range of politicians who believe they were elected to represent Palestinians rather than their constituents. Clearly this situation has enraged the right wingers and simultaneously radicalised and mobilised those who believe in Islamic political ideology. In general everyone has an opinion, usually poorly rearched and lacking historical accuracy, no one considers the other side moral or compassionate enough to consider debating with them in good faith and no one is seeking to find common ground. This conflict is influencing our general election, local politics and dividing opinion on a par with the whole Brexit debate. We now debate Israel more than our own domestic social/economic/political problems and are obviously unable to do a thing to to influence the situation either way. Things are indeed cracking and breaking.
2
@allanchapman7986 Nigel Farage would love that!
2
@DieFlabbergast I put it down to thirteen years of Tory government, Austerity, Brext, Covid, Liz Truss' delivering 'growth' through extreme supply side economics crashing the economy, anti union legislation, cut backs in services, highest taxes since the war, cost of living crisis, health care crisis and finally an absolute liar as a Prime Minister being replaced by a billionaire playboy. Incompetence and deceit. The only way forward is an overhaul of our electoral system, our national institutions, our economy and the type of people we elect to lead us. I know what you are thinking...what a dreamer!
2
@beatonthedonis4726 Agreed.
2
@davidmarkmann6098 We still produce Rolls Royce, Jaguars, Range Rovers, Minis, Mitsibishi cars etc in the UK, but all the companies are now owned by combinations of foreign corporations such as BMW and Tatra. Globalism in action. There are still niche car and motorcycle manufacturers in the UK like Morgan and Triumph but because of automation they employ small numbers of highly skilled workers. They are generally unionised and are very well paid. Most of these car producers are very proftable and their cars sell all over the world. Check out Formula 1 International Grand Prix car racing. Most of the companies that compete in F1 are based in the UK and employ UK engineers and designers. The UK government is currently setting up a massive electric car and battery production factory in co-ooerattion with the Indian company Tatra.
2
@chrimbus71 Yes, how ridiculous is that? The NHS has been one of the most diverse workforces in the world for decades but somehow that's not enough for the old Diversity, Inclusion and Equity hucksters. There are probably still too many middle aged, middle class, hetrosexual, cis-gendered, white men (doctors) who need weeding out. Thankfully, because the money is so bad in the UK, they're all going to Australia anyway!
2
@SelwynRobertson Absolutely. I can't see it playing out well over time.
2
Lets not imagine the Wagner soldiers are the good guys. They are violent criminals and mercenaries. Most of them are international war criminals. Mr Prigozhin is angry that the war against Ukraine has being so badly prosecuted. He is angry that his troops have been poorly supplied and that his men have been unnecessarily sacrificed at the front lines. But he does not want to end the war. He wants to fight it better. Also, he has blamed the military top brass but not specifically Putin. Its rather like the Waffen SS rebelling against Hitler because the war is beng lost. This may be the beginning of the end of Putin, but not necessarily the war in Ukraine. Political instability and social chaos in Russia. Things will get worse before it gets better.
2
Once again, a fresh perspective. Not a narratieve you hear in the UK but probably the most objective and realistic prediction of what lies ahead for us. We are currently experiencing endless reassurance from conservative voices that say 'all we need is stability' while totally ignoring the fact that the BEXIT they all fought for, has been the source of all our instability. It is also, by the way, the equivalent of sanction ourselves. Subsequently our political clas seems onlycapable of making the situatio worse. We are yet to hear a coherant or honest economic philosophy from Boris Johnson, Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak and still we stumble on....in the UK we get the leaders we deserve.
2
Good point.
1
If Trump undermines NATO the cost of supporting the Eastern NATO nation's security will fall upon Germany, France and the UK. Speaking as a Brit I can categorically state that the UK can not afford increased military spending. Our military budget is usually around 2% of GDP and that is already stretching our economy beyond sustainability. The next government (almost definitely Labour) will definitely not receive a mandate to increase military budgets. Their budgetary emphasis will entirely be upon domestic spending; public services and investing in our collapsing institutions, infrastructure and trying to stimulate domestic economic growth. The weaker Trump makes NATO the stronger and more emboldened Putin will feel. In effect Trump will be throwing nations like Lithuania, Poland, Finland etc to the wall.
1
Would the Weimar triangle would be stronger with LePen in position in France and the AVD in the driving seat in Germany? Add to that the possibility of the Austrian Freedom Party, the Dutch PVV and the Swedish Democrats joining in the whole debate, Vlaams Belang from Belgium and F D'Italia too, it might even move Hungary's Fidesz away from Putin's influence? Or is this a recipe for disaster? A far right Europe united against Putin, mass immigration and cultural erosion? Just a thought...
1
@jonlittle5032 I understood what Peter said. My comment was intended to introduce a broader perspective, beyond France and beyond the recent EU elections.
1
@carter7944 I was referring to the DPP, not the same as the far right parties' prominance in France but nevertheless rising in popularity with a similar popularist platform.
1
@Tilten Good point. Once the (far) right parties have to compromise and take responsibility for actual policies they tend to become quite ineffective. I know in Sweden there has been new developments with the SD because of this. My point was that even in moderate Sweden the right wingers have a significant presence.
1
@MikeBenko You may well be right.
1
Sorry Peter but I think it's the other way round; Trump is delusional (grandiose, egotistical, angry) and Biden is demented (unable to follow a train of thought, uncertain and forgetful). It doesn't really matter either way, you're faced with a disastrous choice between two evils. What's worse is the Dems ridiculous attempts to distract from and deny Biden's weaknesses while, if Trump were to die tomorrow, he would probably still be elected. Surely the US can come up with something better than this?
1
Sounded like a parody. The grammar wasn't flawless, it sounded like it had been written by someone for whom English is a second language. Obviously there was no real content or insight and the analysis was totally meaningless and superficial. However it could be successfully employed if you wanted to write a script for an very average tv soap opera, perhaps even a speech for a particularly vaccuous politician or day time tv show presenter, but for any kind of critical analysis, forget about it. Your job is safe for the time being Mr Zeihan!
1
That's what I thought. I'm really surprised so few comments have picked up on that. Is he suggesting farmers are better when they're not white? Is he being racist or just trying to be funny? I don't get it...
1
Well said. Sadly, I see the land ending up in the hands of multinational corporations and greedy developers, losing our traditional farming families, their historic techniques, their links to local communities and ruining our green and pleasant land.
1
@whenthepastwaspresent Biggest UK export is finncial services, specifically the trading of gold. Sounds mad, considering we do not produce gold, but nevertheless true.
1
Bleak.
1
@ILikeFreedomYo The 'constraining principle', in the case of the UK, is central government wanting public sector wages to be depressed and budget allocations declining in real terms over the last thirteen years. Because of this there is a mass exodus of workers from teaching, nursing, doctors, prison workers, senior police officers etc Those who have remained feel they have no other way to bring the public's attention to the way their services are being undermined but by striking. Nurses, junior doctors, ambulance drivers, railway workers, junior barristers are threatening strikes is because cut backs have made their jobs unsafe and almost unworkable. It's not just about wages, it is about their terms of employment and the declining conditions they are being expected to endure in the work place.
1
@CometdownCat Not sure I understand. How does the US citizen subsidise the UK's pharma costs?
1
The rest of the Wagner units are mostly in the Middle East (Libya and Syria for example) and various unstable African nations where they extract mineral resources in return for political/military muscle. There will be a variety of international reprecussions and of course instability if those elements are rapidly and unextectedly withdrawn. The civilian populations of all the regions where they operate will undoubtedly face renewed chaos and destruction if the Wagner forces are forced to leave and of course the Wagner organisation will face a massive loss of income. That may well be a factor that dissuades their leaders from entirely committing to a full on rebellion?
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The illegal migrant 'attack' is a tactic that has been used before. The Russians used it against Poland two years ago, just prior to the invasion of Ukraine. It has the effect of destabilising borders and undermining the soveriegnty of the target nation. Clever and cheap. Some say France is doing it to the UK as we speak!
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@NimbleBard48 Watched the video and the guy says the effects of the polar vortex collapse are unexpected but usually short lived. Doesn't really fit what PZ is discussing. Plus the guy is an engineer, not a climatologist or a meteorologist. Interesting though. Thanks for the link.
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@dandondera2618 I hooe you are right. Re-unification would be good for the Moldovan people and for strengthen Europe's defense against Putin.
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@fdhgbjsk It's funny how my original comment was a simple analysis of the impact of the Nigerian community in the UK and yet the most interesting replies have been about the Indian diaspora. If there was an Olympics for success as an immigrant population, the Indians would win gold every time! Not just in the UK but internationally. They have been the largest immigrant group coming to the UK (post Brexit) and if judged by academic achievement, professional achievemnt, involvement in politics, law, medicine, capital aquisition and low crime rates they come top by a significant margin. In terms of adding more than they take out, the Indian community represent a massive net gain to UK society. Apart from the nationalist/ethnic/religious/sporting conflicts in Leicester last year I can't think of a single incident in which Indians have distinguished themselves as anything other than a benefit to the UK. If readers of this comment don't agree I suggest they visit their local doctor, dentist, solicitor, barrister, accountant, research scientist, university lecturer etc etc.
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Nice knot, horrible tie.
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Is 'arse-hat' a technical term or a job description?
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Grim.
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Biden vs Trump! With Trump running from his prison cell and Biden running from his geriatric hospital bed. Groan...Make America Old Again!
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Cats aren't interested in German foreign policy, obviously.
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Brexit was supposedly about sovererignty; economic and political independence. Turns out it hasn't delivered on either: the UK is still unable to make laws that the public want, there is still too much regulation, rising national debt, no growth, stagnant wages, record net immigration, shrinking birth rate, collapsing public services, institutional collapse and endless strikes. It would be very ironic if, because of all these Brexit failures, the UK public eventually chose to give up sovereignty and independence to become a US vassal state. If the next Labour government fails it may become the next logical step?
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There may be no new eveidence one way or another but: bat, pangolin or lab leak from an institution that was investigating deadly viruses? Which the sounds most likely?
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