Youtube comments of Kazkas Kazkas (@kazkaskazkas8689).
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I noticed that when you start developing a conversation with people from the point closer to them (and safer), they eventually open up more.
Not starting with war or political questions, but rather on personal life, views on the future. In most cases, they will turn the conversation towards those things themselves.
If they begin to talk about how great Putin is, ask them who do they see as the next president (reminding that Putin will not stay forever - he's not getting any younger). If nobody - that's an interesting thought for them.
If they turn the Ukraine talk towards "historical Russian lands", ask them whether they visited Crimea (before or after 2014), do they have relatives in/from Ukraine.
If they start talking about "victory", try asking whether they think new territories will require a lot of expenditure and how that will affect their economics. Whether they would prefer a peaceful solution, do they think Ukrainian people are at fault or their bad government (and which of their presidents was the worst Yanukovich, Yushchenko, Poroshenko, Zelensky - the government has changed multiple times during Putin's rule).
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Typical:
- Russians have taken Pisky. That's it, Donetsk front will now collapse.
[nothing happens]
- Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kherson has failed [after 3 days], and they have put ALL their soldiers there and they all died. Ukrainian army is no more.
- Kharkiv counteroffensive [going on "vacation" for 4 weeks - total silence]
- [Reluctantly admit the obvious : russians getting out of huge territories and important cities, but make it seem like nothing]
- Any empty village russians take - let's make a video about how strategic it was
- Russians move another 2 km - CRUSHING blow to Ukrainian army
- Russians will take Bakhmut, and the whole Eastern front will COLLAPSE.
[they don't, it would not]
- Whoops, they have not taken it, but soon.
[doesn't happen]
- Oh, now they're encircling it. It will be captured soon. Hooray to Wagner! [fangirl screech]
[still not]
- Well, not captured, but so many Ukrainian soldiers dying. Russians moving slowly, so they're not dying.
- Either way, Ukrainian counteroffensive will fail. They have no men.
- repeat
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@vitapaskevica8987 Я не согласен. Проблемы в Латвии, конечно, большие, и решать их адекватно еще не научились, но это точно не "дно". Рига, конечно, не Лондон, а Лиепая не Маями, но и там тоже свои проблемы. Но это и не Уфа и не Кызыл, и уехать легче, если не нравиться. В Латвию тоже из Запада люди приезжают, когда от своих проблем устают. Я думаю, что будет всё нормально у вас.
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I like JBP and agree with many things he says in general. However, geopolitics is not his strong side.
There are many smaller things I disagree with in this video (and some factual errors), but there's also one fundamental thing - the understanding of Russia. A historical understanding starting from before the Russian empire would help, too. Maybe Ukraine is more of the center of Slavic culture, orthodox christianity, and conservative family values than Russia is.
He seems not to differentiate the Imperial Russia from the Soviet Russia and the current Russia. Huge parts of the former empire are now independent countries with their own interests and paths which he ignores and only takes the interests of Russia into account. Imagine doing that with the former British empire.
Current Russia has half the population of the USSR. What about those people? Especially the ones that resisted the regime and, after getting out of Moscow's control, strove to join NATO, so that they were safe from Moscow taking them back.
Also, somehow equating the Putin's regime with Russia (that their fate is the same and that cornering, humiliating, or the fall of the regime is equal to that of the country).
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@danielsolodov4222 I mean, they did retreat from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mikolaiv. I'm sure the supply issues were a big reason for that.
In other areas, their advances have been very small in the past month or more. I'd say, the logistics is impeded.
They only hold territories which they can supply (close to Russia, Crimea, separatist republics), and that area is not expanding much.
We'll see how it goes. Russians are using better tactics now, but Ukraine is getting heavier weapons too, so it may not get much easier.
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"Россия сможет воевать в такой же интенсивности ещё 10 лет". Ну, не знаю...
1. Путин так долго жить не будет, а после него будет хаос в любом случае, и не до Украины.
2. Ну да, санкции они обходят, но и за это платить надо. И экономика России не то-что в очень хорошем положении до войны была. Санкции и война экономике не помогает. Ещё 2-3 года такого, и вернутся 90-ые.
3. И за последнии год сколько они захватили, и сколько потеряли захваченного? Ещё год такого, и даже Z-ники поймут, что надо заканчивать. А без поддержки народа диктатор долго не продержится. Придут другие, которые захотят сново бизнес с Западом делать.
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I take the Russian equipment losses as reported by Ukrainians, divide those numbers by 4 and still get an army that could crush most European armies.
I mean, even taking 750 tanks and 1500 APCs, 500 artillery systems, 70 military planes and 65 attack helicopters instead of reported 3000, 6000, 2000, 280, and 270, respectively, it would still be an impressive force made only from those.
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There was a huge overestimation of Russia's military power before the war. Then came underestimation after a totally failed phase one. Now, for all thinking people, it's approaching something closer to the truth. They have lots of resources, they were prepared for sanctions, they're learning. I hope the Ukrainians are learning too, but only the support from the West can keep them fighting against the Russian war machine. It can't be an easy win for either side.
My prediction: Russia will have to stop after taking Donbas, there will be no Ukrainian counterattack, both sides will be demoralized, thus, lower-intensity positional war will start and will lead to some kind of agreement which will keep being broken occasionally for a few years. Then, when Russia's war economy will restore its might, they will start the offensive again taking some more territory. It will be terrible for everyone involved for decades to come.
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Message from Europe: Just shut up about your freedoms and keep vaccinating.
Up to very recently, they've been pushing this vaccination agenda here setting Denmark as an example - one of the most vaccinated European countries, 'and look, they are easing restrictions, we should vaccinate too, and we'll get our freedoms back'. Now it's omicron. It doesn't matter that the rising 'new cases' (positive tests) has not translated into hospitalizations and deaths AT ALL. Apparently, first two doses don't mean s**t anymore, but the third one of the same is the salvation.
The freedoms have been taken relatively easily here (initial trust in the government and "science", fear of the virus, false hopes to come out of restrictions and lockdowns). But getting those freedoms back is much harder than to give them away. The apparatus will not be giving them back. It's easier for them to be able to lock people down at any time, have them scanned, put behind fences and keep them at forced SOCIAL distance (why is is called social distance and not physical distance anyway?).
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@Salabar_ Only those he cannot crush by force, buys them and lets them rule, but ultimately under Kremlin. Chechnya with Kadyrov is a glaring example.
Georgia is a different example. They lost the war, weren't destroyed, but now have a puppet government and the former president (Saakashvili) is dying in prison basically on camera. No need to annex it - have it as a poor buffer territory with no ambitions to develop anymore.
Prigozhin and Wagner didn't lose anything after their mutiny (having killed russian soldiers during it). Girkin-Strelkov, however, had no armed force to back him, so he's now in prison for criticizing Putin, like Navalny (which is ironic).
Ukraine will survive with independence (maybe with less territory) exactly because they have showed resistance. If they had capitulated, they could only remain as a puppet state (worse than Belarus), at best, or not at all.
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Важно не только, КАК он говорит, и даже не то, ЧТО он говорит, но и ДЛЯ ЧЕГО он это всё говорит.
Он же не просто свои мысли высказывает, но хочет разными высказываниями повлиять то на украинскую, то на международную, то на российскую аудиторию.
Очень полезно говорить россиянам, что мы не враги, а наш общий враг - путинский режим. Свергните его, и будим жить дружно и богато.
Западу: вот видите, мы не нацисты, мы защищаем Европейские ценности, помогайте нам и тому-же самому себе.
Украинцам: да, есть политические разногласие, много проблем в стране, я вот тоже не на 100% согласен с властью, но сейчас надо про этого временно забыт и победить на войне. А потом построим всё как мы хотим (каждому "мы" по своему принимается).
Просто супер! В России таких нет. Кто? Песков? Соловьёв, Гиркин-Срелков? Кадыров? Ну, Пригожин пытается таким стать, посмотрим, что будет.
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Бляяяя... Вообще не понятно, кому доверять можно. Все "друзья Украины", "хорошие русские", "проукраинские блогеры", "антипутинцы", "волонтёры" и т.д. как-то вызывают подозрение, у всех есть что-то 💩...
Бабченко, Муждабаев, Фейгин, Соловей, Арестович, Кац, Романенко, Варламов, Клирик, Латынина, Гордон, почти все навальнисты (ну кроме может-быть Наки)...
Кто остаётся? Украинцы. Только Стерненко? Даже тот самый Свитан иногда высказывается так, что как минимум странно.
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Нет, все ждут, пока ЗСУ станет очень сложно, н.п., потеряют Бахмут, Северск, Лиман. Тогда получат оружие - чтобы не было быстрой победы. Как и HIMARS получили только после потеря Лисичанска. Теперь, ждут успехов ВСРФ, и только тогда станут поставлять.
Я думаю, они хотят затянуть до 2024 и дать рашке выход без смуты и распада. А может и совсем решили Донбасс отдать, только ослабить рашку, чтобы дальше не пошли.
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Ага, а почему тогда он полтора года врал? Теперь на 180 градусов повернул риторику. Теперь ему уже русские такие умные и мотивированные, россия сильна, украинцы тупые, а Запад слаб, а республиканцы в США - религиозные фанатики, которые видят сатанизм в Украине потому, что они якобы за ЛГБТ.
Один пример из многих. Теперь уже говорит, что надо было принимать стамбульские условия, и что они были лучше, чем что Украина может получить сейчас. А что он говорил сразу после Стамбула?
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Yeah, it's nice an optimistic, but those predictions about sanctions being deadly or that Russia is close to using up their reserves of missiles, tanks, soldiers or whatever were a very much off. In general, it's not easy and very costly for them, but they can still continue raising hell in Ukraine and surviving economically for a long long time. (danger number 1)
I think Western countries are more sensitive to the consequences of their own sanctions, also many will not be willing or able to sustain military and financial help to Ukraine. (danger number 2)
My prediction is that some countries like Germany will start pushing even more (they already are) for a "peace" deal which will be beneficial to Russia (keeping occupied territories and removing most painful sanctions) and terrible for Ukraine, which may cause economic and then political crisis there. (danger number 3)
Of course, it will be terrible for everyone, but Russia has more endurance for sh1tty life and terrible things. The government has more control, and the society is obedient while the West and Ukraine will have to actually deal with unhappy citizens.
So these are the dangers that should not be covered up by overly optimistic expectations. They have to be recognized and prevented as much as it is possible. Realizing that the hardship is not even half-way through and preparing for even bigger challenges without losing spirit is very important now!!! I hope Ukraine will stay strong and that real friends will continue their support!
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Right from the beginning, I had no high hopes for Ukraine, even though I'm 100% supporting Ukraine. My optimism was at most that Ukrainians will be able to stop Russian advance at some point and make them pay a heavy price for what they manage to capture. Had little hope of Ukrainians ever recapturing territories in the East and South. But all that pro-Russian optimism was extremely deluded and turned out to be much more wrong than the crazy optimism of the Western media.
Now, the situation is still extremely difficult in some parts of the front for Ukraine and a threat of successful Russian offensive capturing some areas is high, but all those talks about taking Mikolaiv, moving to Odessa, encircling Ukrainian forces in Donbas, Ukrainian front completely crumbling after losing Izium, Lyman, Severodonetsk etc. that this channel and pro-Russian sources were talking about turned out completely false. There was only a slow and costly grind with little gains for Russia in Donbas while performing great retreats in Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
And this guy is again talking about the collapse of the whole Donbas front when Russians take Bakhmut. I remind you that he was predicting a similar thing after Severodonetsk was lost (like 5 months ago). And back then, Russians still held Izium and Lyman which were crucial for making moves towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Nothing like that happened, only the continuation of that same slow grind.
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Yeah, it's nice an optimistic, but those predictions about sanctions being deadly or that Russia is close to using up their reserves of missiles, tanks, soldiers or whatever were a very much off. In general, it's not easy and very costly for them, but they can still continue raising hell in Ukraine and surviving economically for a long long time. (danger number 1)
I think Western countries are more sensitive to the consequences of their own sanctions, also many will not be willing or able to sustain military and financial help to Ukraine. (danger number 2)
My prediction is that some countries like Germany will start pushing even more (they already are) for a "peace" deal which will be beneficial to Russia (keeping occupied territories and removing most painful sanctions) and terrible for Ukraine, which may cause economic and then political crisis there. (danger number 3)
Of course, it will be terrible for everyone, but Russia has more endurance for sh1tty life and terrible things. The government has more control, and the society is obedient while the West and Ukraine will have to actually deal with unhappy citizens.
So these are the dangers that should not be covered up by overly optimistic expectations. They have to be recognized and prevented as much as it is possible. Realizing that the hardship is not even half-way through and preparing for even bigger challenges without losing spirit is very important now!!! I hope Ukraine will stay strong and that real friends will continue their support!
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@PyromaN93 Yeah, those predictions about sanctions being deadly or that Russia is close to using up their reserves of missiles, tanks, soldiers or whatever were a bit off. In general, it's not easy and very costly for them, but they can still continue raising hell in Ukraine and surviving economically for a long long time.
I think Western countries are more sensitive to the consequences of their own sanctions, also they will not be willing or able to sustain military and financial help to Ukraine. My prediction is that some countries like Germany will start pushing even more (they already are) for a "peace" deal which will be beneficial to Russia (keeping occupied territories and removing most painful sanctions) and terrible for Ukraine, which may cause economic and then political crisis there.
Of course, it will be terrible for everyone, but Russia has more endurance for sh1tty life and terrible things. The government has more control, and the society is obedient while the West and Ukraine will have to actually deal with unhappy citizens.
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Но если Марк так вырвал/понял, то так и ещё хуже будут вырывать все пропагандоны и инфлуенцеры противника.
Запад наверно и не давал вооружение раньше именно по тому что боялись того что Украина быстро падет, станет хаос, и все оружия останутся не известно кому или будут проданы террористам, а потом когда "миротворцы" Хуйлостана там наведут "порядок", путинская Украина будет создавать угрозу Западу.
Заметили, что помогать стали не сразу, а только когда увидели, что власть не пала, армия воюет а не сдается и не переходит в сторону агрессора?
Так-что и сейчас надо показывать решимость воевать а не рисовать ужасные картинки, как будет если Украина капитулирует. Арестович уверен, что этого не будет, а вот Запад нет.
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Tiesiog yra ankstesni, gerokai iki karo sudaryti, susitarimai tarp Rusijos ir Vakarų šalių. Nors visuomenės nuomonė verčia juos keisti savo politiką, ir pati valdžia pasikeitusi, ir Rusijos statusas sumenkęs, bet susitarimų laužyti senosios Vakarų valstybės nelinkusios - ar iš baimės, ar dėl finansų, ar šiaip žodžio laikosi.
Beveik neabejotina, kad Krymas neoficialiais susitarimais buvo Rusijai atiduotas, Ukrainos į NATO nepriimti irgi turbūt kažkada buvo pažadėta, dabar režimo žlugimo ir pilietinio karo ruskyne bijoma labiau, nei Ukrainos teritorijų praradimo. Geopolitika ir "realpolitika". Ukraina dar gerokai daugiau teks padaryti, kad šitos pozicijos rimčiau pasikeistų.
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@zainuddinpawaney7650 Well, Kyiv is roughly 50 times bigger than Bakhmut. They had no chances of taking it unless Ukraine got scared capitulated (probably what they expected), but it didn't happen, so that operation turned out into a blunder.
However, it helped them to capture the south from Dnipro river to Mariupol - basically their only strategic achievement in this war.
They also took Kherson which was necessary for them to have any chances for moving on Odessa and Transnistria, but lost it later.
After retreat from Kyiv, the main thing was The Battle For Donbas which turned out to be slow grinding. They were in the better position to take it by the end of summer than they are now. When they held Izyum and Lyman, it looked like they could reach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk any day, but now they have to go through Bakhmut, and we see how that is going.
What HL said in this video about Zaporizhia turned out to be nothing at all. He got it 100% wrong. If it was from Ukrainian side, he would be screaming how their offensive got crushed (as he always does), but in case of Russia, he announces their great offensive (how they will now take this and that and destroy Ukrainian defence), and just forgets about it when it brings nothing.
Both sides are doing this propaganda, and HL is on the russian side - not an unbiased observer.
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Hello from the Eastern flank of NATO. I can tell you that here, the support is very real. It's not just some flag waving, as it it for you all who haven't had a war with a foreign power on your soil arguably ever.
People donate up to 20% of their monthly salary, go into the war zone to deliver food, clothes, trucks, all kinds of supplies, some join the fight, many take refugees into their homes.
Everyone who has experienced the Russian World wants to be in NATO and feels the real threat. We understand that Ukraine is now protecting all of us with their lives. If they had fallen in 48 hours, we would be at war right now ourselves and Western powers would be negotiating with Putin and thinking how to respond and "not escalate".
Yeah, seeing how quickly American media and society moved to talking about that slap, makes this accurate. Ukraine, Iran, what's the difference, right?
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@charlottecorday8929 I know I'm not in the majority here, but I've been following and analyzing this conflict, all the news, analysis, opinions, in five different languages from different sources and of various persuasion (pro-Ukrainian, pro-Russian, more or less neutral): mass media, briefings (military and political), reports from the fronts, vlogs and blogs, social media, debates by politicians, military officers, political and military analysts, historians, influencers etc., videos, photos, maps of military actions from both sides, and all the propaganda.
With my analytical background and having spent many hours every day for the last 6 months or so (yes, since before the invasion started, I was expecting it) and having followed the developments in Ukraine and Russia since about 2004, I think I can base my opinions on more than JBP. And definitely more than one country's main stream or alternative media has to offer.
I'd say most of the Western takes on this are off, and understandably so.
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Это потому, что про Арестовича. Его смотрят очень много людей не из Украины (как я, н.п.), а когда что-то не понравилось - многие и комментируют. Вот мне на русском сложно писать, даже и читать не так легко (в школе русского не было), но после "идиота" читал и сам вот комментирую :)
Я слушаю и Солонина, и Арестовича. Не всегда со всем согласен, но интересно и не мог бы обвинит не одного из них антиукраинскими действиями . И даже если меня убедили, что один из них прокремлевски, то я не мог вы определить, кто. Но и Марк пока
Алексея только идиотом назвал, и Алексей грубо не ответил.Буду пока обоих осторожно уважать :)
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It's hard to improve with each new wave of mobilization. First were active duty soldiers, then - reservists, then motivated volunteers, then not motivated, but capable, if forced. After that - all the rest (not motivated, and not capable).
The only way to motivate the rest would be huge sums of money (like Wagner), but that causes other problems. You attract the new ones, but demotivate those who are already fighting with little compensation.
You can promise land from deoccupied territories to everyone, but that's like middle ages - not feasible in this system.
Another solution - large numbers of foreign fighters, but it's hard to integrate them into a common command structure and existing units, and there are no tasks anymore that they could perform independently.
Overall situation is such that it could hardly motivate anyone (local or foreign) who's not there already to join. Prolonged bloody war with no victory in sight.
It's a problem for both sides, but the other side is still bigger.
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We should look how it works in practice. And the evidence on that is not in favour of masks.
There may be many examples. The one I know well is Lithuania and Latvia.
Similarities:
1. Next to each other (almost the same in geography)
2. Similar genetics
3. Very similar lifestyle
4. Same climate and event the weather patterns
5. Rates of tourists and citizens returning from travel are basically the same and from the same countries.
- So they are good for comparison.
Differences in COVID-19 response:
1. Lithuania had mandatory masks from March, strictly controlled.
2. Lithuania closed all bars, cafes, barber shops, dentist practices etc.
3. Lithuania reinstated the masks 3 weeks ago.
4. Latvia didn't have mandatory masks, almost nobody was wearing them, not even in supermarkets or on busses (except for about 1 month when they became mandatory in public transportation after the end of quarantine)
5. Latvia had their barber shops, dentists, many small shops working during the quarantine, no masks inside. Many bars and cafes also remained open (limiting number of people and working hours)
6. Lithuania kept mask mandate for many situations even after the quarantine.
- Thus, Lithuanian response was much stricter. Most notably, the almost opposite position on masks.
Results:
1. Latvia started the quarantine with more cases and deaths.
2. During the quarantine, Lithuania reached the numbers and surpassed the Latvian numbers in a month or so.
3. The cases and deaths (per capita) in Lithuania remained higher throughout all the time.
4. Now there's a strong second wave in Lithuania, approaching the daily numbers and active cases of the peak from April-May.
5. Second wave in Latvia is almost not noticeable.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?
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Все смотрят - Украина, Россия, Белорусь, Казахстан, Молдова, Литва, Латвия и т.д. Я из Литвы, мне лучше вообще было бы на английском. На русском ещё нормально, на украинском тоже смотрю уже и понимаю, но ещё не на 100%.
Не язык теперь самый главный, потом разберёмся, просто так более удобно.
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