Comments by "seneca983" (@seneca983) on "William Spaniel" channel.

  1. "Why would you jump off there?" He's gone over that in earlier videos. No need to rehash the whole chain of events every single time.
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  2.  @stevekillgore9272  Is there evidence of that?
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  3.  @stevekillgore9272  Well, is there any evidence for it?
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  4. That's literally explained in the video itself (though only in text form).
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  5. The title says "Every Other World Conflict" but you didn't say how this affects the conflict in Myanmar.
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  6.  @ZeroNumerous  You got the timeline mixed up. Stuxnet was discovered in 2010. The JCPOA was agreed on in 2015, i.e. several years later. Presumably Iran was refining weapons-grade uranium prior to 2015 but I'm not aware of any evidence that they were doing it in 2015-18. IAEA inspectors not detecting violations of the JCPOA isn't predicated on whether Iran is rational or not.
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  7. But 4 of them have better fertility than Russia (and 3 have worse). In addition, they are more attractive to immigrants and have higher pension ages.
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  8. There's one hypothetical war ending scenario you didn't mention. You could argue that ending US aid pushes the "white line" so much to the west that all of Ukraine ends up occupied by Russia.
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  9. 5:25 Are those changes percent changes or percentage point changes? You say the former but in this context the latter would probably be the more typical metric.
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  10. I have a question about the miscalculation reason. As you said in the video, once this error is revealed in action and a more correct estimate becomes available to both sides then otherwise rational unitary actors should reach a negotiated settlement. However, I'm curious about how common this is in practice. Do leaders often pull out quickly from failed attacks? My intuition would say that leaders might be tempted to "stay the course" even when facing a debacle because admitting defeat is too embarrassing even though it would be less costly materially. On the other hand, continuing an expensive war and throwing away lives just to avoid embarrassment also seems strange behaviour. What kind of behaviour is the most common in that kind of situation?
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  11.  @stirlinggerbic-forsyth3345  The Ukrainian casualties he claims may very well be inflated. I only wanted to say that the (implicit) Russian casualty figures contained in what he said might not necessarily be understated in the same way as an explicit claim about Russian casualties probably would be.
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  12. ​ @IFRYRCE  "I don't think he is right. I know exactly how small foreign aid is in the grand scheme of the US budget" He can still be right. You might be in the minority.
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  13.  @robertstuckey6407  I don't think that makes you a bad person. At least to me, that feels emotionally less uncomfortable than e.g. looking for combat footage where you can see people becoming KIA. However, I have no idea where you could find that kind of information.
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  14.  @neilbarnett3046  They have lately mostly being using contract soldiers, not conscripts (at least when not counting what used to be the forces of the former LPR & DPR).
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  15.  @sfjarhead4062  It's not as widely known.
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  16. If Russia were to attack Sweden the most likely target would be the island of Gotland. Also, Sweden's membership would enhance the safety of the Baltic countries.
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  17. "So if Russia now tries to invade Sweden, they will be forced to do that be sea, which is highly unlikely." Invasion by the sea was always the most likely invasion scenario because the most likely target for a Russian invasion of Sweden would be the island of Gotland.
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  18. What do you mean "bad take"? The MANPADs were just a hypothetical example. You seem to be taking that part too literally.
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  19. Turkey joined 70 years ago, not in the past 30 years.
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  20.  @termintot4645  The problem with F-16s is that Ukrainian pilots need to be trained on them and there's a finite rate at which they can be trained. Huge numbers of F-16s with no one to fly them aren't very useful.
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  21. I think plenty also go to Romania and then leave via the port of Constanța.
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  22.  @nzs316  I don't think a commercial plane would be able to see a missile. I think civilian radars (for locating vehicles) are mostly so called secondary radars, i.e. they work by receiving a ping from the target vehicle's transponder, and you probably won't receive such a ping from a missile targeting you. Primary radars, which work using reflections from target vehicles' metal parts, are more common in the military but I don't think civilian planes have primary radars (except for weather radars).
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  23. According to Wikipedia, "Chasiv Yar" literally means "Quiet Ravine".
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  24. I think losses in Russia were over 2x higher than those in the Peninsular War (though they were hardly light either).
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  25.  @davidlim5  "Why be busybody ?" Because it's not a good thing if countries can just invade other countries willy-nilly. It's better if such intransigence gets punished and hopefully Ukraine, or at least a significant part, gets saved from falling under Putin's tender mercies. Even if you disagree about how good the reasons are the claim of "no reason" is clearly false.
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  26.  @salahgh3081  He only use the Saudi flag when talking about Saudi Arabia, not in place of the Palestinian flag. Also, it's not appropriate to use the Palestinian flag here because the current fighting (mostly) only involves Hamas and Gaza which is controlled by Hamas.
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  27. He said that hitting the oil infrastructure would hurt USA's strategic goals.
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  28. "Nay-Foe" That would be a fitting name for a military alliance. (For those who don't know, "nay" means "no" and "foe" is a synonym for "enemy".)
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  29. "Crimea was never a Autonomous Republic within Ukraine - Ukraine has no Autonomous Republics" You're mistaken. It was an Autonomous Republic. That was defined in the law "On status of the autonomous Republic of Crimea".
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  30. ​ @Omer1996E.C  "Nobody is asking if these relations [...] were or are approved by most of the arab populace" I don't claim to be all that knowledgeable about these things but to me this would seem to be less relevant in Saudi Arabia than most other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia doesn't have any kind of national elections or even a parliament. Thus, while the government the doesn't have unlimited slack, it seems that there's no obvious strong pathway for popular opinion to force the government to change course short of some kind actual civil unrest.
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  31.  @alexhumble7653  "What would the US do if Russia built a military base in Tijuana?" Well, that certainly wouldn't give them the right to invade Mexico (and I think they wouldn't). "However according to sent. Robert Kennedy 14000 Russian civilians were killed by Ukraine’s artillery in Donbass since 2014. Who could stop that slaughter and how long should’ve Russia tolerated that?" I already told you earlier that that's false on multiple levels. Let me repeat: -This figure includes people killed both by Ukrainian forces and those killed by separatist/Russian forces. -It includes deaths from all sorts of weapons like assault rifles and grenades, not just artillery. -It includes both soldier and civilian deaths. In fact, civilian deaths are a clear minority. They number about 3k, i.e. less than 1/4th of that estimated total. -Almost all of those deaths happened in 2014 & 2015. In recent years the number of deaths before the present invasion were something like 10 per year and that figure includes shelling by both sides as both sides have been doing that.
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  32.  @alexhumble7653  What are you talking about? I don't speak Russian nor Ukrainian and the level of my English skill (whether high or low) is hardly evidence for me getting paid.
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  33.  @kenho5209  "it is european blackmailing russia" Which is perfectly justified to stop an invasion. "consider u are working in the bank, u are receiving salary through the bank account in this bank too. now the bank is telling u they are freezing ur bank account (for salary) permanently, and u still need to work for them." That's not the case for Russia. The forex reserves of the Russia central bank were frozen but not e.g. Gazprom's receipts from energy exports. If those had been frozen Europe would have already stopped receiving gas long ago.
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  34.  @kenho5209  "Russia is no way to transact/receive money in their european" There are exceptions to that such as energy transactions. Those were exempted so that Europe could still receive gas.
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  35. 3:00 I like how the Philippines is its own category.
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  36.  @jounisaari9471  I don't think the 180k refers to any particular subset of the reserve. More likely, it's the amount that could and would be called up in a war, at least in initial rounds of mobilization. The entire reserve can't be mobilized because there probably isn't gear for everybody nor enough staff officers to lead that many units. Also, people would still be needed in the civilian economy too. Thus the planned war time strength of 180k for the Army. Though, I suspect in a protracted war more would be mobilized eventually.
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  37.  @RtaincCo  I thought it was "Constellis" since 2014.
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  38.  @prospect2664  I think Russia did recently announce or extend a gasoline export ban. It's going to last until the end of the summer.
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  39. I'm under the impression that the package would be spread over several years.
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  40. I think "hidden" is a bit of an exaggeration. I remember the Hostomel airport getting a lot of coverage in the early phases of the war.
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  41.  @Rabbitrey Yes, but Russia didn't hold its northeastern and southwestern flanks before the current invasion.
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  42. Not going to happen. Invading Ukraine didn't prompt that. Not selling gas is hardly grounds for an invasion.
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  43. Presumably it still makes Russia better off, or at least that's what the Russians presumably believe or else they wouldn't take the deal.
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  44. "The socialist goverment went to election and won saying we will not join, after the election they did the opposite of what they said before the election." That's because the situation changed massively.
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  45.  @only_fair23  The French have shot Houthi drones down.
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  46. If the assumptions of this video hold, gas prices in Russia should increase.
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  47. But why did Israel strike that Iranian consulate in Syria? It puzzles me as I don't see what the (possible) upshot for Israel was.
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  48. If Ukraine manages to recapture the dam and it's vicinity it should be able to just block the canal again without necessarily lowering the water level in the reservoir too much.
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  49.  @Capitalist_Pig314  "It is not like they will come to our aid if Mexico invades." I'm pretty sure they would. They did come to your aid in Afghanistan after 9/11 which is so far the only instance where the Article 5 has been triggered.
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  50. 2:15 And French politics too, apparently.
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