Comments by "seneca983" (@seneca983) on "How does the Ukraine war compare to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and 1941 Operation Barbarossa?" video.
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@jamesng7320 "Why does it matter so much what their name is? Suffice that they are the ones who are de-facto in government due to their influence."
Their names matter because then it's possible to try to check if these individuals actually have any significant influence over the government. The fact that you haven't been able to name any suggests that such individuals don't exist.
"According to the UN, 14000 people have been killed in the Donbass in the past 8 years including civilian and military on both sides. The present war has only killed around 3,000 people according to the same UN. If the current war succeeds in bringing sustainable peace then there will be no more dying."
That 14,000 figure is from the Ukrainian government, not the UN. The UN gives a slightly lower figure of 13,100-13,300. Most of these deaths happened early in that 8 year period. Later the rate of deaths was lower so the present invasion is going to increase deaths, not reduce them. Also, even the lowest figure of deaths for the present invasion is about 4,400 and the true figure is likely much higher as this figure uses the casualties reported by the Ukrainian and Russian governments both of which are likely to understate their own casualties.
"Russia did think about just invading the Donbass, but then Ukraine would have likely mobilized and assaulted Russian positions. This made the operation to demilitarize Ukraine necessary."
That makes zero sense. Ukraine likely would not have dared to do so and even if it did just defending is much easier than attacking so it would have been an easier military task for Russia (and sanctions would likely have been lighter too).
"It is simply a threat Moscow cannot live with and they have every right to respond to it."
There's no such right for a pre-emptive invasion (or else you could say that invading Russia pre-emptively would have been OK too). Ukraine was unlikely to join NATO, at least any time soon and even if it did there's no reason to assume any such missiles would be placed there.
"Did you see what the US did when Cuba stationed Soviet missiles in 1962?"
Back then missiles in Cuba (and Turkey) were a much bigger deal because ICBMs were few, inaccurate, and unreliable. Today ICBMs render Cuba-like situations largely irrelevant. Also, it's not clear that the US's response was justified (even though it wasn't even a full-scale invasion).
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@jamesng7320 "Ok, here are two names for you - Victoria Nuland [...] Barack Obama"
If these are the so called extremists with influence over the Ukrainian government then I don't seen how it makes sense invade Ukraine over them, especially if the goal is not to remove Zelensky. This invasion wont' remove Nuland from her position and Obama isn't in a position of power anymore in any case. Also, I don't think either of them is a member of Azov.
"Yes there's skepticism when I take Russia's word for it, but no one will prove that their intelligence is real given the nature of how intelligence is gathered."
Well, to me what you have claimed seem just unsupported assertions and nothing more. I don't see why it would be rational for most people to change their minds about this conflict just because you make these claims. Also, remember that Russia (as well as Ukraine) has an incentive to just make whatever claims happen to be convenient for them even if they happen to be lies.
"Justifiable or not, that is the reality of how geopolitics works. We might as well learn to live with it because every country does it."
Maybe, but we also want to keep invasions to a minimum because they're destructive. One way to do that is to make invasions painful for the invader. That's one good reason for sanctions.
"And, if you are smart leader of a country which is weak such as Ukraine, you would make decisions based on this geopolitical reality to avoid war with Russia in the first place."
Maybe, but we cannot go back in time and have Ukraine make different choices so what remains is a decision what to do in the current situation. If and when peace is reached we wouldn't want the terms to be too harsh on Ukraine. Sanctions put pressure on Russia so they should be more willing to agree to less harsh terms.
"As for sanctions, no one sanctioned the US and Israel when the conduct their special military operations. So in your world where everything is fair they should have sanctions too."
Maybe they should have, I can't say.
"If nukes are the be all and end all of deterence then why do nuclear powers keep their regular armies then?"
For example to deal with non-existential threats (so something less than leveling Moscow in 5 min), to fight outside one's own borders, to fight potential separatists, etc. Nukes might not be a be all end all but they certainly make attacks onto a nuclear power's soil quite unlikely. Even if you don't believe that, it still remains that Ukraine would have been unlikely to join NATO for the foreseeable future.
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@jamesng7320 "there would have to be a material benefit to me if I were to prove things for you"
That's understandable but the fact remains that for me and many others there is no rational reason to give the Russian claims much weight.
"The West's intelligence for invading Iraq in 2003 was phony."
At least my skepticism is not that much based on counter claims by Western intelligence agencies so this doesn't really matter all that much. Distrusting Western intelligence agencies doesn't make it rational to trust the Russian ones.
Also, one could argue that one intelligence agency failing or deliberately lying means others could do it too or alternatively Western intelligence did correctly predict that this war would begin (or at least the US one did, not so much the French) which again should boost their credibility (if it matters).
"I also believe that Russia must destroy the whole Ukrainian army because it is just too infested by Nazis"
If you mean rank-and-file soldiers, that's ridiculous. The Ukrainian army is a conscript army largely made of ordinary people. There's no reason to believe it's significantly more "Nazi infested" than the general (male) population of Ukraine. It also has more than 200,000 people. Are you saying that massacring that many people is justified.
On the other, if you just means generals etc. they're not likely to die on the frontlines.
"it would have mobilized to attack Donbass if it were left operational"
If the Russian army were in Donbas (but didn't push further) I don't think that would have happened. It's hard to imagine Ukraine attacking in that situation. Even if it did, that would be much more difficult for the Ukrainians since attacking is pretty much always more difficult than defending. This is basic logic and you don't have to consider anyone's intelligence info to come to this conclusion.
"This pre-emptive self-defence justification is very strong justification in my view."
I say the opposite, it's very weak. We need to have norms that discourage attacks. Otherwise, you could similarly say that a pre-emptive attack on Russia would have been even more justified (in hindsight).
"Western sanctions are going to unravel when the West starts paying in Rubles for their gas"
No, that's hardly going to make any difference. Firstly, the plan seems to be that European buyers of gas wouldn't have to get their hands on Rubles but rather they would remit Euros (or some other currency) to Gazprom Bank which would convert them to Rubles and give to the Russian exporter. Since the exporters were already required to convert 80% of their foreign currency to Rubles the difference is small. None of the sanctions unravel because of this.
"Either that or Europe will shut down and go into recession."
Even if gas keeps flowing other sanctions will still stay in place. If the gas trade is halted by one side or the other Europe would indeed go into recession but Russia too would likely go bankrupt fairly soon. Something like half of Russia's federal budget comes from the export of oil and gas.
"So your sanctions aren't going to work anymore."
Well, I disagree but in any case they should be kept in place at least as long as they still do work. There's still hope that peace might be achieved before that and meanwhile it's good to keep some pressure on Russia.
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@jamesng7320 "Increasing trade with someone who has been severely sanctioned by the west sends a strong statement. Actions speak louder than words. India too has increased its oil imports."
To me the statement just seems that they look after their own interest.
"most of Ukraine's military infrastructure has been destroyed"
The Ukrainian military hasn't disbanded nor stopped fighting like the Iraqi military did.
"Sorry what I meant to say was that in a hypothetical non-nuclear world, NATO would be morally justified in pre-emptively attacking Russia to defend Ukraine."
OK, my position is the opposite.
"In academic circles, your arguments would be classed as "positive". This is the way the world SHOULD work. [...] My arguments are based on the reality on the ground and are called "normative"."
You got the terminology the wrong way around here. Claims about how things are are "positive" claims whereas claims about how they should be are "normative" claims.
"I agree with you - in a utopian world, everyone would renounce violence and we would all co-exist harmoniously. It is a very nice concept, but it is just a fantasy and you even concede that some of your concepts are unenforceable."
Even reducing violence has a lot of value. International norms and responses can discourage and reduce invasions. Just because they might not reduce them to zero doesn't mean it's not worthwhile. Similarly we don't say that there's no point in funding a police for even though they can't reduce crime to zero. Strong response to this invasion makes future invasions less likely.
"In my view, everyone has the right to challenge the status quo before the ultimate authority - force."
If you say they have the right to do it it's a claim about how things should be, not how they are, just like my claims you mentioned.
"Military force is the ultimate authority whether you like it or not and we must learn to work with it. [...] You can say that this is really unfair and I'd agree with you but this is the reality of the world."
A good way to live with that reality is to discourage that kind of behaviour with sanctions (and air-strikes if Russia didn't have nukes).
"not freezing Russia's oil and gas money in dollars and Euros doesn't make sense. The EU would essentially be financing Russia's war if they didn't sanction the payments."
The EU essentially is financing Russia's war. While various sanctions have been applied they have not touched energy, at least so far, because that would impose hardship on some EU members, chiefly Germany and Italy.
The US has banned the import of Russian oil, gas, & coal. Recently also Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have announced that they would block gas imports from Russia. There would be no reason to do any of that if Russia couldn't access its gas payments.
"Russian news also says the money is being frozen - see sputnik and RT."
I actually don't believe they have said that. I tried to check but couldn't access their websites. If they have made such a claim then the person saying or writing that probably didn't know their stuff. However, I think it's more likely that you just misunderstood or misremember. More likely they have talked about some other assets being frozen or the possibility of the gas payment money being frozen at some point in the future (hence the demand for payment in Rubles).
"it says that payments for energy are sanctions exempt. I interpret that to mean that the EU will still pay for the gas imports by putting Euros into a bank account. However, what is not mentioned is that the bank account where the money is held is frozen and no funds can be transferred out of it."
That would directly contradict the statement of energy transactions being exempt.
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@jamesng7320 "I found another video from a French journalist in 2016..."
Thanks, I'll watch the whole video at some point but right now I don't have the time.
"Russia wouldn't lose any money because all the money they are getting from the gas right now is frozen"
I don't believe that. I haven't seen any mention of money from energy transactions being frozen (aside from a couple of YouTube comments).
"if it weren't for the US veto on the security council, there would be UN sanctions on Israel right now"
Sanctions don't require permission from the Security Council.
"The defacto independence for Donbass was not good enough. Despite Minsk 2, as the video shows there were still crimes committed against Donbass and this resulted in 14,000 deaths according to the UN."
Quoting that 14,000 after saying "there were still crimes committed" is highly misleading. Firstly, the UN figure is slightly lower at 13,100-13,300 (though this is a minor point). Secondly, this figure includes both military casualties on both sides and civilian casualties killed by both so you can't blame all of it on Ukraine. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, the clear majority of those deaths happened in the earliest phases so "there were still crimes committed" and that figure aren't really connected. It doesn't justify a full invasion.
"there has been very little land invasion of Ukraine too"
That's just false. Even invading just the east and the south is a major invasion. For much of the conflict so far there was also invading force in the north as well.
"you must take into account that Serbia is a much smaller country than Ukraine"
Fair enough, though it still doesn't look that good in comparison. Human Rights Watch gives an estimate at around 500 civilian casualties for Operation Allied Force / Noble Anvil. Ukraine in 2020 had about 5.85 times the population of Serbia in 1999. Scaling up the civilian casualties by that is around 3,000. The recorded civilian casualties for the present invasion recorded by the UN as of April 7th is a bit over 1,600 and the true figure is likely higher. The 3,000 might have been already exceeded even though the current invasion has so far gone on for less than half of the time so it's almost certain to be deadlier, at least eventually, relative to population. Also, this invasion entails many military deaths too.
"Donbass held a referendum on breaking away from Ukraine in 2014 just like Crimea and both populations voted for it."
They were already de facto independent. I don't see how that would justify an invasion into the regions under Ukrainian control.
"To apply justice selectively and only to those who you can enforce it upon is a big injustice in itself."
I still consider it the lesser evil relative to no norms at all.
"everyone has a right to defend themselves by any means necessary - just like Russia is doing"
By that logic, everyone has the right to place sanctions too.
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