Youtube comments of seneca983 (@seneca983).
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0:14 "Taiwan has diplomatic relations with 15 countries including the main ones: United States, Australia, Canada, European Union nations, Japan, and New Zealand."
There seems to be a big misunderstanding here. Since you're using the number 15 you're presumably talking about the countries with full formal recognition and diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. These are mostly very small countries. They are: Belize, Eswatini (Swaziland), Guatemala, Haiti, the Vatican, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, & Tuvalu. The countries you mentioned probably support Taiwan informally but they don't formally recognize it.
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@J-BiRTH I'd say that Mongols during the Mongol conquests the Mongols were more brutal than many other cultures were to foes that resisted and were defeated. See e.g. Balkh, Bamiyan, Herat, Kyiv, Baghdad, Nishapur, Merv, Urgench, Lahore, Ryazan, Chernigov, Vladimir, and Samarkand. That said, the other cultures at the time were probably still pretty brutal by modern standards even when less brutal than the Mongols.
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@moneymakermike6189 "The countries work as independent markets that share the same currency."
This doesn't really mar the argument because inflation rates across the Eurozone are pretty close to each other.
"with your logic, countries that do not control the dollar but still use it, such as Ecuador or even Djibouti [...] would encounter equal inflation"
Yes, and this is what we actually observe. You can e.g. use the World Bank website to show the inflation rates for the US, Ecuador, and Djibouti after, say, 2004 and they match each other fairly closely. Why 2004? Well, Ecuador dollarized in 2000 so it doesn't make sense to compare earlier years. Also, before dollarization it had a very high rate of inflation and after 2000 it took a couple of years to reach the same level as in the US (so what I argued doesn't hold in the short term but 10 years is long enough) so 2004 seems like the most illustrative starting year for this.
"and economic prosperity"
No, definitely not. This is a completely different thing.
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@Andrew H "Inflation as a result of giving everyone free money without an accompanying increase in production doesn't actually do anything."
Firstly, monetary policy is not conducted by "giving everyone free money" in any place I've heard of. Secondly, the point is that when there is cyclical unemployment expansionary monetary policy can increase production. It works by depressing real wages making hiring the unemployed cheaper and thus more profitable.
"For Japan, they cannot just keep printing like you think. Their debt to GDP is 230%. If they keep printing like they did under Kuroda, they will end up like Greece when no one want's their bonds."
There is no reason to believe that reaching, say, 2% inflation would make no one want their bonds. Presumably, investors would demand a 2% higher nominal return on their bonds but that's not a higher real rate. Also, the improved economy would make the risk of default lower.
"Central banks were pushing on a string and had reached a point of very marginal return."
Do you really think that a central bank that can (if needed) print unlimited amounts of money would somehow be unable to depress the value of that money? If that were true, we could finance all government with just money printing. Realistically, central banks can always increase inflation to, say, 2% with much less money printing that would be enough to finance the government in the long term.
"The risk to future generations was too large."
What risk is there? A bigger balance sheet is literally income for the government.
The only risk of printing too much money is creating too much inflation. But I'm only calling for central banks to print enough money to meet their inflation targets, not more. Even if you disagree that inflation would reduce unemployment reaching 2% inflation is not high enough to create problems so there's no harm and the government would get (temporary) extra income from the requisite money printing.
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@QiuSe "in Russia you mostly just experience inflation with some select categories like electronics or cars, in Germany it's a lot more across the board"
But if that's the case, then those select categories must have clearly higher inflation that the across the board inflation in Germany (assuming the data by Trading Economics is correct). Otherwise, the overall level of inflation couldn't be higher in Russia. Note, this can't be just some rare items that almost no one buys because the different categories are weighted based on what consumers spend money on.
Also, remember that while everyone has to buy food for many in Germany it might not be that high of a percentage of their overall consumption.
"depending on the source, Germany is indeed shown with a higher inflation than Russia, for example by the International Monetary Fund"
This might be partly due to how often they report figures. Trading Economics has monthly figures and it's only the very latest figures where Russia has passed Germany in inflation. Even in the IMF figures the difference isn't that large, 5.3% for Russia, 6.3% for Germany.
Additionally, how individual consumers feel inflation is affecting them often doesn't accurately reflect its actual effect on them. Consumers may e.g. give disproportionate weight to items they buy often even though they're not expensive and not think about rarer but bigger expenses that affect them more.
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@coolmodelguy "The mechanics of stock buybacks dictate that buying back shares increases the value of existing shares"
It does mean that the share price will be higher than if the money had been used for dividends instead of buybacks. However, in the article, they mentioned that they were calculating a total return index which includes the assumption that the hypothetical investor reinvests all dividends. In theory, there should be no difference between buybacks and dividends in such a case (ignoring e.g. taxes).
"We are entering into an age of "Techno-Feudalism", where each American family sends a $5000 "wealth tax" directly to the oligarch class each year."
I'm not sure what you're referring to but, in any case, I don't see why that would make the performance of the stock market surprising.
"The first one shows that the wealthy gained $9.8 trillion in financial asset value in 2020."
It shows the total wealth of all households (and nonprofits), not just the wealthy. In any case, I don't see why the wealthy gaining X dollars would somehow imply that the performance of the stock market surprising.
"The third one shows that money printing shot straight up in 2020, with $13.73 trillion in new dollars created"
This is monetary stimulus. It's not far-fetched to think that the markets expect it to improve the economy.
"over 90% of that went straight to the stock market"
That just doesn't make sense. Whenever someone buys stocks there's someone on the other side selling them and vice versa. There isn't money "going to the stock market" in the net (except when companies raise capital by issuing stock, but that's certainly not in the $10 trillion range).
If you simply meant that the stock market has gone up because of the money printing it can simply be because the markets expect it to improve the economy.
"tons of money being printed and none of that money getting into the hands of ordinary people"
Money creation is income to the government.
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12:35 OK, I've not used Rust and I've only read on it a little bit, but shouldn't it be possible for Rust to include a garbage collection as a library? Technically, reference counting is a form of GC so, in a way, Rust already has a kind of GC in the form of Rc (and Arc) and AFAIK, that's just a part of the standard library, not some kind of special language primitive. You could also write your own Rc in Rust if you wanted. Similarly, you could also write your own tracing GC, though it would be more effort. In fact, based on short googling it seems someone has written some kind of GC library for Rust. Now, the next step would just be for Rust to include something like that in its standard library. Then, every Rust programmer could make their lives easier and use tracing GC but only when and if they want to.
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@RogerGarrett "according to the builders, the propeller is allowed to freely rotate, with nothing other than the wind causing it to rotate"
No, that's not how it works and the builders aren't saying it is. The propeller is not allowed to spin freely and it spins to the opposite direction than the wind would turn it.
"And at that very point the wind is no longer imparting a force against Blackbird, . . . because both the wind and Blackbird are moving in the same direction and the same speed relative to the ground."
It's still imparting a force on the propeller because it's spinning.
"Then the propeller is engaged and begins to spin"
No, the propeller was engaged right from the beginning.
"The critical question then becomes, "What causes the propeller to rotate, where does the energy come from that powers the propeller?" It is NOT being caused to rotate BY THE WIND, because in the current state there is no wind relative to the propeller."
The wind does not directly rotate the propeller. Where the energy comes from depends on the inertial frame. In a frame tied to the ground it comes from the wind. In the frame tied to the air/vehicle (which are the same in this instance) it comes from the ground. Just because the wind doesn't directly spin the propeller doesn't mean the energy isn't coming from the wind, though that depends on the inertial frame used to look at the situation.
"They cite explicitly that the power comes from the wheels, from their interaction with the ground."
True. This in no way contradicts what I have said.
"It COULD come from a gasoline engine on board the vehicle. It COULD come from a flywheel on board the vehicle. It COULD come from solar panels powering an electric motor attached to the propeller."
Of course, I have not personally inspected the cart to know whether the builders have cheated in one of the ways you list. However, their record was certified by NALSA and trust them to have done a thorough enough inspection to know that no such energy sources are present.
"And when the vehicle is travelling at the same speed as the ground-relative air movement, that vehicle-relative air movement is ZERO and therefore contributes nothing, no energy, to the vehicle."
But in that frame of reference the ground is moving relative to the vehicle and that's where the energy comes from in that frame of reference. (In a frame tied to the ground the energy comes from the wind.)
"Further, when the vehicle is travelling FASTER than the ground-relative air movement, that vehicle-relative air movement is AGAINST the forward movement of the vehicle and therefore REDUCES the energy, the movement, the speed of the vehicle."
It doesn't because the propeller is spinning.
"Again, it is the repeated claim by the makers of the Blackbird that it is interaction of the wheels with the ground that powers the vehicle. That means that they are saying:
It is the motion of the vehicle itself that increases the motion of the vehicle.
It is the speed of the vehicle itself that increases the speed of the vehicle.
It is the momentum of the vehicle itself that increases the momentum of the vehicle.
None of that can be true. It is simply physically impossible."
It's not only the motion by itself. The interaction with the air and the ground is crucial. None of that is impossible.
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@RogerGarrett OK, here's my answer. (I'll consider the situation 2 only after my answers to 1 and 3, because that would distract from the main issue.)
Situation 1
Yes, I agree that in this case the cart would eventually stop. Even if the propeller is spinning and providing thrust it's being powered by the wheels and the grip of the wheels must be providing at least as much deceleration as the propeller is providing acceleration.
Situation 3
You said: "The only thing that the Blackbird experiences is the various forces imposed up on it by the Blackbird-relative air, which is ALWAYS a Blackbird-relative headwind, plus the standard friction losses."
However, those are not the only forces. If the Blackbird only interacted with the air it indeed could not exceed wind speed. However, it also interacts with the ground which is crucial. The wheels are being used to drive the propeller which means they are constantly braking the cart. However, since the ground is moving relative to the cart faster (100 mph in your example) than the relative headwind (which is only 50 mph in your example) it means the cart can get mechanical advantage in using the wheels to power the propeller. This means the wheels brake the cart less than what the propeller pushes it forward by. That means the cart can accelerate.
Situation 2
What about this situation? If you tried to use the same setup, i.e. the wheels powering the propeller, the cart would indeed stop even faster than in situation 1. However, you can do the reverse and use the propeller as a wind turbine and use it to power the wheels. This way you can again get mechanical advantage and accelerate beyond wind speed. Blackbird can operate like this as well and has gone upwind faster than the wind (but by a smaller factor than downwind)
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@RogerGarrett "The end of the shorter section of the beam moves as a result of the movement of the long section with the end of the shorter section moving through a shorter distance but with a higher force."
And that's also what's happening with Blackbird. The air is moving less relative to the cart than the ground.
"But then you look at the Propeller section of the vehicle and note that, relative to the ambient (Ground-relative) wind, it's going a much shorter distance (half the distance, in fact), and from that you calculate that there is TWICE the Energy there."
No, I calculated twice the force, not energy. I assumed the same energy, just like with an actual lever. Check again the numbers I used (though they're just made up examples).
Most of the rest of your comment seems to be based on this same misunderstanding. I never said the energy would be multiplied by mechanical advantage.
"The situation starts with figuring out how much Energy you can tap into from the momentum of the vehicle, from the speed at which the mass of the vehicle is travelling relative to the ground. That gives you a baseline, maximum amount of energy that's available."
No, that's hardly the maximum because the cart can extract energy from its surroundings (either the air or the ground depending on what inertial frame you're using).
"Leaves me wondering why you're not using that increased air velocity to calculate a LARGER distance travelled and thereby LESS Energy."
Because the propeller, if well designed, mostly pushes the air backwards. It doesn't accelerate to spin with it at high velocity. That would obviously be inefficient. The angle of attack of the propeller's blades are chosen such that these kinds of losses are not too large.
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@RogerGarrett "When you've got some object moving at some speed through the air it does not matter that the air may also be moving in the same direction of the object."
True, if the object is interacting only with that air. However, here the air is moving relative to the ground and the cart is interacting with both of them which is the reason why it's possible to extract energy from them.
"But if the propeller acquires its energy from the very momentum of the object itself that momentum will, must, reduce over time, with the result of the object slowing down."
But this isn't really an accurate description. You have tended to look at the situation in the inertial frame tied to the cart (at a specific instance). In this frame the ground is moving relative to the cart and therefore has kinetic energy. In this frame it's the kinetic energy of the ground which causes the wheels, and therefore the propeller, to spin. The ground then slows down by a minuscule amount. Thus the cart (and the air) are able to gain kinetic energy. (In a frame tied to the ground the energy would be coming from the wind instead but let's use the frame tied to the cart instead because you have tended to focus on it.)
It's like in your lever example. A lever doesn't multiply energy because the force and distance change by the same factor. However, you can still impart kinetic energy on an object through a lever. A similar thing is happening with Blackbird. The energy is coming out of the ground or the air (depending on frame) and the lever-like mechanical advantage is crucial for that being possible (but it doesn't multiply the energy extracted).
"And if the Blackbird can indeed extract energy from the air when that air is actually a headwind, imparting a drag force on it, then why doesn't that also apply to the situation where there is no wind, when the air is stationary relative to the ground?"
It's because of the mechanical advantage. If you remember my example with numbers. The air was travelling half the speed of the ground relative to the cart. Because of that the accelerating force from the propeller could be twice as large as the decelerating force from the wheels (assuming no losses). If, on the other hand, the air and the ground are travelling at equal speeds then there is no mechanical advantage. The accelerating and decelerating forces would be equal meaning zero acceleration and if you include losses or drag on the cart's frame then it would decelerate.
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@cklinger500 "It is also true that when taxes is increased, people have less money to spend, and as a result demand decreases."
But I think this argument is flawed for the following reason. If we assume constant government spending collecting more taxes will lead to less government borrowing. So the government is taking more money from the public through taxation but an equal about less through borrowing so there shouldn't be much net effect. If we instead assume more taxation leads to more government spending the conclusion still shouldn't change. In that case, the government is taking more money from the public through taxation but returning more money to the public through spending so again, I see no reason for much net effect.
"the fact that interest rates around the world have been super low near zero for like 13 years and there still is yet to be any meaningful inflation"
At least I personally could respond that low inflation should result in low interest rates through the Fisher effect.
At any rate, it would seem very strange if the monetary policy couldn't increase inflation if it's loose enough. What would happen if the central bank would announce that they're going to expand their QE program by, say, 5% each month until the inflation target is reached. Either the inflation target will be reached or soon the central bank and the government is earning so much money through seigniorage that there's no need for taxation anymore. Of course, the latter scenario is too good to be true so the inflation target should be reached far before that point.
"which is what is supposed to happen according to neoclassical economics"
Which neoclassical model or argument are you talking about here? Can you give a reference because this sounds rather strange to me. Also, I thought the neoclassical school was mostly about micro, not macro.
(Disclaimer: I'm not an economist. I'm just a layman interested in the subject.)
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@cklinger500 "Government borrowing isn’t actually a necessity today since the US dollar is a free floating currency. [...] One of my points from before is that taxes do not “pay for” government spending. This is because under this framework, there is no inception point of money."
But neither of those points makes sense. That the currency is free floating or "there is no inception point of money" (whatever that means) doesn't mean that spending needn't be funded somehow. The goverment needs either income (which is usually mostly taxes) and/or it needs to borrow (usually by bond issuance). Note that this is again the thing that UE considered weird about MMT (except you're going a bit further in saying that it's not just taxes that are unneeded for spending but borrowing as well).
"When people buy bonds, they are pretty much getting a savings account (something with interest returns and also a maturity date), so if anything these bonds are increasing the amount of money that the general public has."
It doesn't really. First, the various definitions of money, M0, M1, M2, etc. don't include bonds. Maybe you think some alternative definition would be better but bonds are rather different from at least M1 money. You can't pay groceries with bonds. Also, bonds have a market value which can fluctuate when interest rates fluctuate, possibly by a lot if it's a very long maturity bond. Also, some bonds (TIPS) are indexed to inflation.
"QE is just the replacing of securities to reserves in the banking system. It is a misconception that QE is just when the government mass prints a smack ton of money."
But there isn't really much difference assuming that "smack ton" would be given to the government to spend. Either the Fed could (electronically) print X dollars for the government to spend or the government could borrow X dollars for that spending via bonds and the Fed just buys those bonds off from the market. The end result is pretty much the same so there's no difference.
"What I meant my neoclassical is just mainstream economics. The neoclassical argument I was referring to is the argument that lowering interest rates leads to more people borrowing. As a result of more people borrowing, that will lead more people to spend, and if the interest rate is too low, the economy will be become overheated and lead to inflation."
I don't think there's quite this kind of mainstream consensus. Do you consider e.g. Milton Friedman to have been mainstream or heterodox? He remarked that low interest rates are usually not a sign that the monetary policy is loose but rather that it has been tight. Both the low interest rates and low inflation are the result of tight monetary policy.
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@metatronyt But "burnish" and "burn" are different words and I think their etymologies are different too. From what I can tell from your videos it seems that the "bronze glowing in a furnace" description was in the New Testament in Greek and the "burnished bronze" description of cherubim was in the Old Testament in Hebrew. Of course, I don't know any Greek or Hebrew so I can't check these myself so I have to rely on your videos and other translations. However, these seem somewhat different descriptions. Bronze that has been heated in a furnace to the point of liquefaction actually glows due to the high temperature. Burnished bronze doesn't glow but the surface is shiny/glossy due to being so reflective due to being smooth.
I don't have an etymological dictionary but here's what Wiktionary says about the etymology of "burnish" (i.e. it's not related to "burn"):
"The verb is derived from Middle English burnishen, burnysshen (“to polish, burnish; (figuratively) to brighten, give lustre to; to clean (something) until shiny; to decorate (with something shiny), adorn”) [and other forms], from burniss-, a stem of Old French burnir (compare, for example, the first-person present singular indicative form burnis), a variant of brunir (“to make clean and shiny, polish; to make brown”) (modern French brunir), from Frankish *brūnijan (“to polish, make resplendent”), from Proto-Germanic *brūnijaną (“to decorate; tan”), from Proto-Germanic *brūnaz (“brown”, adjective), possibly from Proto-Indo-European *bʰerH- (“brown”, adjective)."
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@nc3826 ""Single use plastic disposable bags" was just a specific counterpoint example, of your generalized assertion that disposable products can be more environmentally sound."
I don't see how one example would in any way contradict what I said. I only said that for some products recycleability doesn't make sense, not all.
Also note that recycleability and durability are two different things. OP was only talking about recycleability, not durability, and my response was aimed at that too, not so much durability. FWIW, where I live plastic bags are recycled, at least if consumers put them in the right bin.
"Plus you could have given a different example, instead you mentioned, shoes?"
Shoes are a specific example of a product that would be too difficult to recycle once they are too worn out to be used anymore. How would you recycle them? It makes more sense to e.g. just burn them for energy than to recycle the material in them. (Sometimes burning is called "thermal recycling" but I don't think that comports with what people usually think of as recycling.)
"My true salient point, is the economic principles I gave earlier, based on negative externalities."
Yeah, negative externalities can exist. How big they are depends on the case. I'm just saying that in some cases they're not big enough to warrant recycling (or recycling could itself have too much negative externality). On the other hand, in some cases recycling does make sense. If you're worried about the negative externality of plastic bags, you can implement a Pigouvian tax on them like some places have.
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@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 "Ser, the sounds /o/ /ɔ/ /ɑ/ are all reprisented as "o" in the latin alphabet."
According to Wikipedia, the letter 'O' has been used to represent the following sounds: [o], [o̞], [ɔ], [oʊ], [uː], [ʌ], [ɒ], [ø], [a], [ʕ], [w], [◌ʷ], [ʊ], & [ə]. You can't expect him to know which one of these to pick in the case of a language he hasn't studied (and some of these might also be difficult for him to pronounce).
"To read phonetically means to turn written symbols in to sound, and that is largely independant of knowing what that sound means."
The correspondence between letters and phonemes is language specific. It's not enough to learn the Latin alphabet to sound out any language using it (or a transliteration from a language using another script). You can't expect him to know what the sound is in another language he hasn't studied and even if he knows it it's not necessarily easy to pronounce for him if he's monolingual.
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+Luceafarul
I'm not trying to strawman your points. I'm only asking for clarifications.
"It's the same word, they are both understood as the same word. They just pronounced a bit differently."
What I wanted to know was how do you decide, how differently the words have to be pronounced before they count as different words. As dialects diverge into different languages words (at least some of them) do eventually become "completely" different. But the process is gradual. Similarly (wherever you draw the line) the entire lexicon changes gradually. I was just curious and wanted to know where roughly you would draw the line of counting words or lexicon's as different. E.g. if two languages/dialects have 80% same words and 20% different ones, would you count them as same or different languages? I'm not asking for a precise definition, just a rough guideline.
"Using intelligibility as a criterion the mandarin Chinese spoken by Robert Downey Jr. And Gal Gadot is not Mandarin Chinese apparently."
Before you gave the example: "imagine if there arises a demographic of people who spoke Mandarin Chinese as bad as Robert Downey Jr. or Gal Gadot in Wonder Woman, would you then say that what they are speaking is no longer Mandarin Chinese?"
If this demographic could communicate with that language among themselves, it might indeed count, by the definitions used by linguists, as a separate language from Mandarin, though still a closely related one. It would probably also count as a creole language. A real example that's at least somewhat similar to this is Tok Pisin, which takes the majority of it's vocabulary from English, but still you probably can't understand it even if you know English. I think most would count Tok Pisin as a different language from English. Here's what it sounds like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H61y75G0A24
"Nobody only classifies a language based on what it sounds like"
To my understanding the genetic/genealogical categories are classified precisely based on that. At the very least you can say that the spoken Chinese languages are indeed different languages.
"Metatron here also did not only talk about SPOKEN language."
I meant that Metatron meant, calling Chinese languages different languages is, I think, based on spoken language (and saying that they're more different than Italian and French and sometimes even Italian and English).
"Did I say Chinese is THE MOST continuous language EVER?"
No, and I did not mean to suggest that. Icelandic was just an interesting tidbit, which I wanted to mention. My comment may have inadvertently sounded aggressive, which is not what I wanted convey. If that's the case, I apologize.
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+ Luceafarul
"Then there is no distinction between a language and a dialect or even accent."
The distinction is fuzzy and there are disagreements on where to draw the lines (which probably can't be avoided with alternative definitions either). The example you gave was Robert Downey Jr's attempt at speaking Mandarin which you didn't understand at all or even recognize that it was supposed to be Mandarin. Despite fuzziness in the intelligibility criterion, this one would seem to clearly stray too far from Mandarin to meet it by any reasonable account. Now I don't think Robert Downey Jr can actually communicate with anyone using his "Mandarin", but if hypothetically there was a group of people who could communicate speaking like that, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me to call that a language that is separate from Mandaring (but closely related to it). And you can still draw similar boundaries between languages elsewhere with the intelligibility criterion. Of course, there is going to be hard cases (like Papuan languages) but I don't think there's a definition that can avoid those.
"In fact, there would also be no such thing as "good" or "bad" language skills"
Generally the goal is to understand and be understood by some group of people (like native speakers of some language) and generally use the language in a similar manner to them. You can say that a person's skill in doing that is good or bad.
"or even "right" or "wrong" usage of a language"
Well, when linguists study languages, it's often useful for them just describe how people use language etc. rather than saying whether the use is "right" or "wrong".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_description
When it comes to dialects say with small differences in pronunciation, you don't usually say that one dialect is "correct" and the other "incorrect", do you? (One of the dialects may be considered "standard", but that doesn't make the other "incorrect" even if for foreign learners of that language it might be practical to aim to speak close to the "standard" dialect.)
"Metatron speaks is not mandarin but a form of "creole" Mandarin."
I don't speak Chinese, so I don't know how close to Metatron's Mandarin is to native speakers' Mandarin, but got the idea that he can actually communicate with native Mandarin speakers. That's very different from Robert Downey Jr's unintelligible "Mandarin".
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@leykimayri "Again, there is no reason for NATO’s expansion, especially after the fall of USSR."
Well, that's your opinion but even if you're right that hardly implies that the US or NATO had any intention of attacking Russia.
"In addition, NATO, a self-claimed “defensive” alliance, attacked, bombed and invaded twice non aligned countries which had not attacked any NATO country with the justification of “humanitarian intervention” (Yugoslavia and Libya)"
Whatever you think of these actions, they hardly mean that NATO would attack Russia, since Russia is much bigger and has nukes.
"In addition there is a HUGE difference between having missiles thousands of kilometres away from you even if they can still reach you and having them in your doorstep. Remember USA and Cuba"
There isn't a big difference nowadays. Back then ICBMs were new and thus there weren't that many of them and they were inaccurate and unreliable. That's why medium range missiles in Cuba (and Turkey) were such a big deal. That's not the case anymore.
But in any case, Ukraine quite clearly wasn't going to join NATO anytime soon, so the above is a moot point anyway.
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@domtweed7323 "Thus the principle borrowed, the stock, doesn't create inflation, but it's associated flows do."
It doesn't create inflation as no new money is created. Even if it did create money a real project would also create similar flows of interest and capital gains to the project initiator (if it is successful).
"And I agree money is printed, but the relevant thing isn't the volume of money, it's the ratio of demand to real output."
Demand in nominal terms is to a large degree determined by the amount of money. The amount of money is what mostly matters. Other things are not very relevant for inflation.
"And if you blindly hike interest rates you hammer productive investments and speculators simultaneously."
The point isn't to "hammer" anyone. Lower inflation requires less money printing. There's no alternative, even if it might mean a temporary recession. Accelerating inflation would/will do more damage.
"The smart strategy is to ration credit away from speculators, and consumers, and allow real investment to boom. Yes you'll still have low double digit inflation, but you'll be able to harness the massive growth potential of a developing economy."
Any such strategy will not contain the rampant inflation. There is no alternative to rate hikes.
"Turkey could be doing explosive, China-style growth (incidentally China also kept interest rates very low, and ran inflation high), and its not worth missing out on that just for single digit inflation."
Inflation is well into the double digits and soon into the triple digits. That's notably higher than China had. Also, China used a currency peg unlike Turkey. The inflation needs to be contained or it will soon cause more damage than rate hikes would. There's just no alternative to rate hikes.
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@firstnamelastname9237 "it does have a solution. They just refuse to use it."
But meanwhile this other solution can do a lot to help. Condoms are cheap, at least for rich countries.
"it's NOT small, especially given it's not the only wasteful spending"
I disagree about it being wasteful and, like I said earlier, US foreign aid is only something like 0.2% of GDP. That's not a lot on the scale of a national budget and has very little to do with the amount of national debt.
"it's doing zero good basically"
Really? What are you basing that claim on? Like I said earlier, it's unclear to me if this spending on condoms is real even in Gaza, Mozambique, but it stands to reason that a very cheap remedy like condoms could help in a region with 10% HIV prevalence.
"If that was the entirety of foreign aid, maybe I wouldn't care."
Well, maybe I wouldn't care so much if it was just one program like this being cut. But it seems there's a more wholesale cutting going not which is quite bad. They seemed intent on cutting also far, far more effective programs like PEPFAR. That cut was apparently at least partially cancelled but the program has probably still suffered. PEPFAR has likely saved millions of lives (not hyperbole).
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@politenonparticipant4859 "the important bit is that it prevents their claim of copyright infringement official, so if they do make a string of false claims, there is a record of everyone they have scammed. If the dealing is done under the table, it would be difficult or impossible to prove how many people they cheated"
Any emails sent, like the one the Thunderf00t received, leaves just as much trail as those can be published (and a DMCA notice doesn't become public automatically).
"A DMCA notice would not be any less expensive to the person whose video was taken down, except perhaps in that it would delay the release of the video."
It can easily be a lot more expensive. It could result in a copystrike and, if it's a third one, deletion of their channel.
"As to your statement regarding the impropriety of threatening legal action on someone who has stolen your work, that is true. The matter at hand here is that the work isn't stolen if it is covered by fair use."
That has nothing to do with whether it's better to first initiate private contact or go straight to a DMCA notice. In this case, Mahlmann had clearly considered fair use before sending his email. In such a case, both a private email and a DMCA notice are valid options but I would say the former is generally morally better because sometimes unnecessary damage can be avoided if the infringer is willing to settle. (If the copyright holder hasn't considered fair use, then he shouldn't be doing either of the options before proper due diligence.)
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@jamesng7320 "Why does it matter so much what their name is? Suffice that they are the ones who are de-facto in government due to their influence."
Their names matter because then it's possible to try to check if these individuals actually have any significant influence over the government. The fact that you haven't been able to name any suggests that such individuals don't exist.
"According to the UN, 14000 people have been killed in the Donbass in the past 8 years including civilian and military on both sides. The present war has only killed around 3,000 people according to the same UN. If the current war succeeds in bringing sustainable peace then there will be no more dying."
That 14,000 figure is from the Ukrainian government, not the UN. The UN gives a slightly lower figure of 13,100-13,300. Most of these deaths happened early in that 8 year period. Later the rate of deaths was lower so the present invasion is going to increase deaths, not reduce them. Also, even the lowest figure of deaths for the present invasion is about 4,400 and the true figure is likely much higher as this figure uses the casualties reported by the Ukrainian and Russian governments both of which are likely to understate their own casualties.
"Russia did think about just invading the Donbass, but then Ukraine would have likely mobilized and assaulted Russian positions. This made the operation to demilitarize Ukraine necessary."
That makes zero sense. Ukraine likely would not have dared to do so and even if it did just defending is much easier than attacking so it would have been an easier military task for Russia (and sanctions would likely have been lighter too).
"It is simply a threat Moscow cannot live with and they have every right to respond to it."
There's no such right for a pre-emptive invasion (or else you could say that invading Russia pre-emptively would have been OK too). Ukraine was unlikely to join NATO, at least any time soon and even if it did there's no reason to assume any such missiles would be placed there.
"Did you see what the US did when Cuba stationed Soviet missiles in 1962?"
Back then missiles in Cuba (and Turkey) were a much bigger deal because ICBMs were few, inaccurate, and unreliable. Today ICBMs render Cuba-like situations largely irrelevant. Also, it's not clear that the US's response was justified (even though it wasn't even a full-scale invasion).
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@jamesng7320 "Ok, here are two names for you - Victoria Nuland [...] Barack Obama"
If these are the so called extremists with influence over the Ukrainian government then I don't seen how it makes sense invade Ukraine over them, especially if the goal is not to remove Zelensky. This invasion wont' remove Nuland from her position and Obama isn't in a position of power anymore in any case. Also, I don't think either of them is a member of Azov.
"Yes there's skepticism when I take Russia's word for it, but no one will prove that their intelligence is real given the nature of how intelligence is gathered."
Well, to me what you have claimed seem just unsupported assertions and nothing more. I don't see why it would be rational for most people to change their minds about this conflict just because you make these claims. Also, remember that Russia (as well as Ukraine) has an incentive to just make whatever claims happen to be convenient for them even if they happen to be lies.
"Justifiable or not, that is the reality of how geopolitics works. We might as well learn to live with it because every country does it."
Maybe, but we also want to keep invasions to a minimum because they're destructive. One way to do that is to make invasions painful for the invader. That's one good reason for sanctions.
"And, if you are smart leader of a country which is weak such as Ukraine, you would make decisions based on this geopolitical reality to avoid war with Russia in the first place."
Maybe, but we cannot go back in time and have Ukraine make different choices so what remains is a decision what to do in the current situation. If and when peace is reached we wouldn't want the terms to be too harsh on Ukraine. Sanctions put pressure on Russia so they should be more willing to agree to less harsh terms.
"As for sanctions, no one sanctioned the US and Israel when the conduct their special military operations. So in your world where everything is fair they should have sanctions too."
Maybe they should have, I can't say.
"If nukes are the be all and end all of deterence then why do nuclear powers keep their regular armies then?"
For example to deal with non-existential threats (so something less than leveling Moscow in 5 min), to fight outside one's own borders, to fight potential separatists, etc. Nukes might not be a be all end all but they certainly make attacks onto a nuclear power's soil quite unlikely. Even if you don't believe that, it still remains that Ukraine would have been unlikely to join NATO for the foreseeable future.
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@jamesng7320 "there would have to be a material benefit to me if I were to prove things for you"
That's understandable but the fact remains that for me and many others there is no rational reason to give the Russian claims much weight.
"The West's intelligence for invading Iraq in 2003 was phony."
At least my skepticism is not that much based on counter claims by Western intelligence agencies so this doesn't really matter all that much. Distrusting Western intelligence agencies doesn't make it rational to trust the Russian ones.
Also, one could argue that one intelligence agency failing or deliberately lying means others could do it too or alternatively Western intelligence did correctly predict that this war would begin (or at least the US one did, not so much the French) which again should boost their credibility (if it matters).
"I also believe that Russia must destroy the whole Ukrainian army because it is just too infested by Nazis"
If you mean rank-and-file soldiers, that's ridiculous. The Ukrainian army is a conscript army largely made of ordinary people. There's no reason to believe it's significantly more "Nazi infested" than the general (male) population of Ukraine. It also has more than 200,000 people. Are you saying that massacring that many people is justified.
On the other, if you just means generals etc. they're not likely to die on the frontlines.
"it would have mobilized to attack Donbass if it were left operational"
If the Russian army were in Donbas (but didn't push further) I don't think that would have happened. It's hard to imagine Ukraine attacking in that situation. Even if it did, that would be much more difficult for the Ukrainians since attacking is pretty much always more difficult than defending. This is basic logic and you don't have to consider anyone's intelligence info to come to this conclusion.
"This pre-emptive self-defence justification is very strong justification in my view."
I say the opposite, it's very weak. We need to have norms that discourage attacks. Otherwise, you could similarly say that a pre-emptive attack on Russia would have been even more justified (in hindsight).
"Western sanctions are going to unravel when the West starts paying in Rubles for their gas"
No, that's hardly going to make any difference. Firstly, the plan seems to be that European buyers of gas wouldn't have to get their hands on Rubles but rather they would remit Euros (or some other currency) to Gazprom Bank which would convert them to Rubles and give to the Russian exporter. Since the exporters were already required to convert 80% of their foreign currency to Rubles the difference is small. None of the sanctions unravel because of this.
"Either that or Europe will shut down and go into recession."
Even if gas keeps flowing other sanctions will still stay in place. If the gas trade is halted by one side or the other Europe would indeed go into recession but Russia too would likely go bankrupt fairly soon. Something like half of Russia's federal budget comes from the export of oil and gas.
"So your sanctions aren't going to work anymore."
Well, I disagree but in any case they should be kept in place at least as long as they still do work. There's still hope that peace might be achieved before that and meanwhile it's good to keep some pressure on Russia.
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@jamesng7320 "Increasing trade with someone who has been severely sanctioned by the west sends a strong statement. Actions speak louder than words. India too has increased its oil imports."
To me the statement just seems that they look after their own interest.
"most of Ukraine's military infrastructure has been destroyed"
The Ukrainian military hasn't disbanded nor stopped fighting like the Iraqi military did.
"Sorry what I meant to say was that in a hypothetical non-nuclear world, NATO would be morally justified in pre-emptively attacking Russia to defend Ukraine."
OK, my position is the opposite.
"In academic circles, your arguments would be classed as "positive". This is the way the world SHOULD work. [...] My arguments are based on the reality on the ground and are called "normative"."
You got the terminology the wrong way around here. Claims about how things are are "positive" claims whereas claims about how they should be are "normative" claims.
"I agree with you - in a utopian world, everyone would renounce violence and we would all co-exist harmoniously. It is a very nice concept, but it is just a fantasy and you even concede that some of your concepts are unenforceable."
Even reducing violence has a lot of value. International norms and responses can discourage and reduce invasions. Just because they might not reduce them to zero doesn't mean it's not worthwhile. Similarly we don't say that there's no point in funding a police for even though they can't reduce crime to zero. Strong response to this invasion makes future invasions less likely.
"In my view, everyone has the right to challenge the status quo before the ultimate authority - force."
If you say they have the right to do it it's a claim about how things should be, not how they are, just like my claims you mentioned.
"Military force is the ultimate authority whether you like it or not and we must learn to work with it. [...] You can say that this is really unfair and I'd agree with you but this is the reality of the world."
A good way to live with that reality is to discourage that kind of behaviour with sanctions (and air-strikes if Russia didn't have nukes).
"not freezing Russia's oil and gas money in dollars and Euros doesn't make sense. The EU would essentially be financing Russia's war if they didn't sanction the payments."
The EU essentially is financing Russia's war. While various sanctions have been applied they have not touched energy, at least so far, because that would impose hardship on some EU members, chiefly Germany and Italy.
The US has banned the import of Russian oil, gas, & coal. Recently also Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have announced that they would block gas imports from Russia. There would be no reason to do any of that if Russia couldn't access its gas payments.
"Russian news also says the money is being frozen - see sputnik and RT."
I actually don't believe they have said that. I tried to check but couldn't access their websites. If they have made such a claim then the person saying or writing that probably didn't know their stuff. However, I think it's more likely that you just misunderstood or misremember. More likely they have talked about some other assets being frozen or the possibility of the gas payment money being frozen at some point in the future (hence the demand for payment in Rubles).
"it says that payments for energy are sanctions exempt. I interpret that to mean that the EU will still pay for the gas imports by putting Euros into a bank account. However, what is not mentioned is that the bank account where the money is held is frozen and no funds can be transferred out of it."
That would directly contradict the statement of energy transactions being exempt.
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@jamesng7320 "I found another video from a French journalist in 2016..."
Thanks, I'll watch the whole video at some point but right now I don't have the time.
"Russia wouldn't lose any money because all the money they are getting from the gas right now is frozen"
I don't believe that. I haven't seen any mention of money from energy transactions being frozen (aside from a couple of YouTube comments).
"if it weren't for the US veto on the security council, there would be UN sanctions on Israel right now"
Sanctions don't require permission from the Security Council.
"The defacto independence for Donbass was not good enough. Despite Minsk 2, as the video shows there were still crimes committed against Donbass and this resulted in 14,000 deaths according to the UN."
Quoting that 14,000 after saying "there were still crimes committed" is highly misleading. Firstly, the UN figure is slightly lower at 13,100-13,300 (though this is a minor point). Secondly, this figure includes both military casualties on both sides and civilian casualties killed by both so you can't blame all of it on Ukraine. Thirdly, and probably most importantly, the clear majority of those deaths happened in the earliest phases so "there were still crimes committed" and that figure aren't really connected. It doesn't justify a full invasion.
"there has been very little land invasion of Ukraine too"
That's just false. Even invading just the east and the south is a major invasion. For much of the conflict so far there was also invading force in the north as well.
"you must take into account that Serbia is a much smaller country than Ukraine"
Fair enough, though it still doesn't look that good in comparison. Human Rights Watch gives an estimate at around 500 civilian casualties for Operation Allied Force / Noble Anvil. Ukraine in 2020 had about 5.85 times the population of Serbia in 1999. Scaling up the civilian casualties by that is around 3,000. The recorded civilian casualties for the present invasion recorded by the UN as of April 7th is a bit over 1,600 and the true figure is likely higher. The 3,000 might have been already exceeded even though the current invasion has so far gone on for less than half of the time so it's almost certain to be deadlier, at least eventually, relative to population. Also, this invasion entails many military deaths too.
"Donbass held a referendum on breaking away from Ukraine in 2014 just like Crimea and both populations voted for it."
They were already de facto independent. I don't see how that would justify an invasion into the regions under Ukrainian control.
"To apply justice selectively and only to those who you can enforce it upon is a big injustice in itself."
I still consider it the lesser evil relative to no norms at all.
"everyone has a right to defend themselves by any means necessary - just like Russia is doing"
By that logic, everyone has the right to place sanctions too.
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@Volcanares : "Admiral Gensoul accepted to meet Captain Holland"
Really? The impression I got was that he only sent Lieutenant Dufay to meet Holland. Dufay, of course, didn't have the authority to even reject any proposals.
I see no reason to refuse to meet with Holland. If Gensoul would have had any alternative suggestions that would have required the authority of Admiral Sommerville to accept he could have just let Holland relay them.
"Saying that the responsability of the british firing on the french is due to the french admiral is stupid. The responsability is to the british first, in that case Churchill who gave the order."
I would give a twofold response.
1) I think the criticism of Gensoul is entirely valid even if you think the British were in the wrong for attacking. Had he acted better, there would have been at least a possibility of a better outcome. Any morally wrong action by the Brittish doesn't detract from this. Soldiers often have to deal with opponents making morally unjustified attacks and can still be evaluated on how well they perform considering. Gensoul simply performed poorly in this instance.
2) In a certain sense, the responsibility, of course, lies on whoever made the decision to initiate hostilities. That doesn't, however, automatically mean that initiating the hostilities was necessarily morally wrong. One can make at least a plausible case that the Brittish had a sufficient reason for what they did, though it's a pretty tough question.
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@5metoo "What makes something rightful right?"
Well, I can't read the minds of those that voted for the 2019 resolution talked about earlier, but I can say that it can be (in their minds) something other than a universal right to return. This resolution was based on an earlier ICJ ruling that stated, among other things, that the decolonization of Mauritius wasn't done properly and that Britain had no right to split Chagos from Mauritius and therefore it has to be returned to Mauritius. That in practice is probably going to result in the Chagossians being able to return eventually, but that conclusion doesn't require positing any kind of universal right of return. In theory, Mauritius could itself prevent civilians from returning to Chagos once it takes over the territory, but it seems that's not going to happen.
"Instead of recognizing as does Spaniel, the obvious truth about why it is that some aspects of international law are so commonly breached, Kerr-Lindsay merely stares into the screen with those dead eyes and intones that such breaches are a problem for their inconsistency alone, as if geopolitics is little more than a list of sacred rules or a dogma."
I don't think there's any good reason to believe that about him. I'm sure he understands why international law might get either followed or breached even though his content mostly isn't about what kind of incentives decision makers face. Also, a reasonable person can believe that international laws and norms being followed can have a lot of utility instead of them being terminal values by themselves. Surely, most his viewers can be assumed to realize that, whether they agree or not, without him having to explain why he thinks it's bad if international laws get broken.
"He notes in the Russia video that it is "violating every one of the principles that underpin this system" that has "existed for 70 years". Every one? If one state can violate every principle of a system that is 70 years old at a stroke with such impunity, what does that say about the realism of this 70 year old system?"
The rule that a state cannot acquire territory from another state through war has mostly held very well after WWII until very recently. That has been very good for mankind since it has reduced the incentive for war significantly. That's one of the reasons (though not the only one) why the Ukraine war is so worrying. And that "every one" is probably just a turn of the phrase and not intended 100% literally.
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@attilamarics3374 When I google where Ukrainian refugees have gone I get the following numbers (top 10 countries only for simplicity):
Poland: 1,639,725
Russia: 1,275,315
Germany: 1,086,355
Czech Republic: 547,670
United Kingdom: 210,800
Spain: 186,045
Bulgaria: 168,570
Italy: 163,570
Moldova: 116,615
Romania: 106,786
With these numbers in the top 10 countries other than Russia have about 3.3x more Ukrainian refugees than Russia. If I included more countries the factor would become even bigger.
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